[str]

For the last 80 years or so people have tried repeatedly to sum up the performance of each horse for each race and convert it to a number.
Andy Beyer has probably done as good a job of this as anyone.The problem is, and Andy would be the first to tell you, once a number is assigned, the question looms as to why the horse earned that number. Without a further explanation which will require watching replays, assigning track biases when needed, reading charts or referring to notes you took when you saw the race, the number will mislead you as often as it will help.
For example, a horse that won and earned a 100 in his last race that got an easy solo lead on a rail that favored inside speed is probably not going to beat a horse that finished 2nd in a different race where he ran a 90 but did so in a the middle of a 3 horse duel and the 2 horses he dueled with finished well back on a track that was even or favored closers.
Beyer numbers are a tool. If used properly, they CAN help somewhat with the process (although I never used them and never will, but that's just me). The problem is, a lot of people do not use them correctly. They see the latest highest number and bet it.That is a complete misuse of the number.The return on investment(ROI) using blind highest Beyer's is roughly 1.80 on a 2.00 dollar bet.
That is actually pretty good, but as it stands, it is a losing proposition.
Other pitfalls for players are guys that use opening fractions from various tracks and try to identify the fastest horse. Example:A horse from Monmouth and a horse from Pimlico meet each other in a race and both want the early lead.The horse from Monmouth has run the first 1/2 of his last 2 races in 44 2/5 seconds and shared the lead both times. The horse from Pimlico has run his last 2 races also sharing the lead both times and cut the 1/2's in 45 1/5 seconds. Which horse is faster?
Seems as though the Monmouth horse is 4 lengths faster but my money would be on the Pimlico horse without hesitation to be the faster. Why? Because at Monmouth the electronic eye that starts the official timer is far enough away from the gate that the horses get a running start before the actual race time starts. At Pimlico, the eye is just past the gate and the horses get hardly any run into it before it starts. While Beyer numbers try to take these types of differences into consideration most speed figures do not.
The bottom line in all this is that their is no such thing as a shortcut when it comes to handicapping.You can not look at a single number and find enough winners to have a + ROI. That is why all horse racing systems will eventually fail. Like most everything in life, successful handicapping takes a lot of work and understanding of the variables that exist in a horse race. As a result, just like any form of betting, you should bet amounts that you can afford to lose and enjoy it for what it is. Hopefully, in the long run, you will win, but unless you do it for a living, you probably will not.

If you really want to learn the nuts and bolts of Beyer numbers you should get a copy of the book "Beyer on Speed". It was published in the 90's but it will explain how the numbers are assigned.
Best of Luck.

[JakeLc]

Beyer numbers are by far the weakest of the final time speed figures. I use feet per second velocity and I adjust for the runup.

[str]

Beyer numbers are by far the weakest of the final time speed figures. I use feet per second velocity and I adjust for the runup.

Not in the U.S.
Are you referring to U.S. racing or another part of the world?
By runup do you mean no gate?
Do you take in to consideration the depth of the surface?
The trip each horse encountered?
The bias if any?
The head wind or tail wind?
The last time the turf was mowed?
Trouble within the race?
Loss of ground?

[JakeLc]

I only play US and Canadian racing.

[str]

I only play US and Canadian racing.

That means a gate is used.
Do you consider the previous questions as part of your model?

[JakeLc]

I use the runup adjustment in quantifying a horses previous races to determine speed for Fr1

Do you take in to consideration the depth of the surface? no
The trip each horse encountered? no
The bias if any? I check about every 10 days or so to see if anything drastic happened
The head wind or tail wind? only on my home circuit do i pay close attention to it
The last time the turf was mowed? no
Trouble within the race? no
Loss of ground? no

[str]

I use the runup adjustment in quantifying a horses previous races to determine speed for Fr1

Do you take in to consideration the depth of the surface? no
The trip each horse encountered? no
The bias if any? I check about every 10 days or so to see if anything drastic happened
The head wind or tail wind? only on my home circuit do i pay close attention to it
The last time the turf was mowed? no
Trouble within the race? no
Loss of ground? no

That is what makes any number assignment so difficult.Without these factors any model will perform at a lesser rate than it would with these.That is not to say that your model does not work. I hope for you that it does but leaving these types of things out of the equation would have to lessen it's peak ability wouldn't it?.

[JakeLc]

For my mechanical spot plays I have no way of quantifying cushion depth etc and using it as a handicapping factor. That is a reality of the game that I've learned to live with.

[str]

For my mechanical spot plays I have no way of quantifying cushion depth etc and using it as a handicapping factor. That is a reality of the game that I've learned to live with.

I understand.
Best of Luck.

[JakeLc]

[unusialsusp5]

beyers are useful..just throw out the chalk and go from there.. you're overcomplicating things...no one wins in the long run anyway...but one thing is sure...you want to win the money that people lose betting on favorites...therefore don't bet on favorites...that simple...if you like the favorite don't bet the race...

[sq764]

beyers are useful..just throw out the chalk and go from there.. you're overcomplicating things...no one wins in the long run anyway...but one thing is sure...you want to win the money that people lose betting on favorites...therefore don't bet on favorites...that simple...if you like the favorite don't bet the race...

no one wins in the long run anyway? i wonder if those who are professionals making a living doing this know that..

[unusialsusp5]

there are very few if any...if you find one let me know...they cannot beat the 20% takeout edge and that's just on flat bets...those math geeks in this forum can't do it that's for sure...

[canuck]

Takeout is the killer.

[sq764]

there are very few if any...if you find one let me know...they cannot beat the 20% takeout edge and that's just on flat bets...those math geeks in this forum can't do it that's for sure...

there are plenty... and with rebates there are a lot more these days... with top rebates its very very possible to turn a profit..

think about it, a 9% rebate, and say you can maintain a 0.95 ROI on every dollar.. you are at 4% profit for every dollar wagered.. and a lot of these pros wager volumes you wouldnt believe.. 4% profit on every dollar adds up.

[sq764]

there are very few if any...if you find one let me know...they cannot beat the 20% takeout edge and that's just on flat bets...those math geeks in this forum can't do it that's for sure...

go to paceadvantage.com.. there are plenty of guys there that do it

[unusialsusp5]

it's a nice forum...but no evidence anyone is winning...because it isn't very likely anyone is...the human mind isn't strong enough to continually make the right decisons in this sport...you can beat a race but you can't beat the races...

[sq764]

saying its not very likely anyone is simply says you're not.. just because you cannot figure the game out doesnt mean others havent

[str]

Have no doubt that there are plenty of professional horse players that do make a living wagering on horses.Most former pros are not guys that lost all their money, they are guys that were not making enough to justify the many hours needed to do so or had a life style change that took away the time needed to be a pro.I knew many, many, pro players during my years at the track.

[unusialsusp5]

you're full of it...just because someone says they are doesn't mean it's true...the biggest liars in the world are at the track in denial about their losses...many, many, pro players...what a joke...how guillable can you be...

[Thunder Gulch]

Speed figures are useful, but to make money with them you have to incorporate a lot of other factors. The problem most people have is that they take the number at face value and apply it to today's race. Most have no idea how the figure is calculated or what the point value of a beaten length is at a given distance.

[foryourhandicap]

Speed figures are useful, but to make money with them you have to incorporate a lot of other factors. The problem most people have is that they take the number at face value and apply it to today's race. Most have no idea how the figure is calculated or what the point value of a beaten length is at a given distance.

Exactly. So many different variables go into it. It's not about who has the highest number or best recently, it's about finding who will have the best number in the upcoming race. Even if one looks significantly worse than the rest based off numbers, if it is lone speed, one can expect it to put up a much larger number than it normally does.

[str]

Speed figures are useful, but to make money with them you have to incorporate a lot of other factors. The problem most people have is that they take the number at face value and apply it to today's race. Most have no idea how the figure is calculated or what the point value of a beaten length is at a given distance.

You are so right!

[str]

Exactly. So many different variables go into it. It's not about who has the highest number or best recently, it's about finding who will have the best number in the upcoming race. Even if one looks significantly worse than the rest based off numbers, if it is lone speed, one can expect it to put up a much larger number than it normally does.

I agree.

[str]

you're full of it...just because someone says they are doesn't mean it's true...the biggest liars in the world are at the track in denial about their losses...many, many, pro players...what a joke...how guillable can you be...

Having saddled more than 5,000 starters and spent the better part of 3 decades at the track every day, I am trying to help anyone that would appreciate it. Take a look at the blinkers in the avatar ( you might recognize the initials on them)
You obviously think you know much more on the subject of horse racing than I do so good luck with your opinion.
And by the way , this is how you spell gullible, and I am anything but.

[sq764]

you're full of it...just because someone says they are doesn't mean it's true...the biggest liars in the world are at the track in denial about their losses...many, many, pro players...what a joke...how guillable can you be...

trust me dude there are plenty of pros out there that make a living on horses.. if you want to think its a fairytale then thats certainly your right, you're just not informed.

its a tough game, but not impossible..and remember most of the pros are ok handicappers and great money managers/bettors

[Art Vandeleigh]

Seems like the toughest part of this game in your average race is human motivation. Are the humans involved (owner, trainer, jockey) really going to try all out to win THIS race? I don't think all connections order the jock to beat the crap out of this horse in this race to make sure they give all out effort, and some connections are worse than others about this. So frustrating when your money is on the line and you can see you are not getting top effort.

[unusialsusp5]

well str since you are a trainer you should know that you can't push a horse every time out...this is truer in harness racing which you have no experience at...i know trainers who just do their work miles in pari-mutuel races that people bet on with no intention of trying to win even though their figures show that they have the best horse...in t-breds with less starts(the average horse only gets 13 lifetime starts) you should know that even there you can't push a horse to the brink...those pros you know are not revealing to a gullible trainer like you about the profit and loss sheets....

[str]

Seems like the toughest part of this game in your average race is human motivation. Are the humans involved (owner, trainer, jockey) really going to try all out to win THIS race? I don't think all connections order the jock to beat the crap out of this horse in this race to make sure they give all out effort, and some connections are worse than others about this. So frustrating when your money is on the line and you can see you are not getting top effort.

For the most part trainers are trying to win every time.There are situations like
first time back off of a long layoff or a grass horse having to run on dirt to stay fit when it does not make sense to abuse the horse to try and be third if he is getting tired. That is very frustrating for the bettor that has triples in play.But if a horse was head and head and the rider wrapped up without reason I would have been in his face immediately demanding an explanation. However, there was a very successful trainer in Md. that , in my early years as a trainer I noticed rarely ran third.At the end of each meet his record might be 100 starts 18w/18p/6show.
This went on for many years. I asked the stable riders agent what it was all about.He told me that it was that trainers policy to try all he could to win but if he could not be 1-2 he preferred to be 5th or 6th instead of 3rd.His theory was that if his horse was off the board he could earn more money with that horse in the long run by sacrificing the 10% share of the pot so as to drop the horse down in company (maybe) and make 60% hopefully down the road.Before the triple wager was introduced this only affected the show pool ( not that I am defending it) but as exotic bets became popular it obviously affected those as well.I never did that. It was my feeling that the 10-12% damn near paid the months bill and being primarily a claiming trainer, money was needed by my owners anytime we could earn it.The local sharps I am sure realized this as well but the casual players probably did not.
As I have said before in other posts, the races leading up to the Derby are definitely a buyer beware because the # 1 job of all involved is to have your horse at his peak on the first Saturday in May and not somewhere in February, March or early April. I would hope that all players would all be aware of this but I doubt it.
Lastly,the jocks that hit there horses dozens of times are for the most part doing nothing to help the horse along.The stick is best used as the element of surprise.The better riders will hit a horse once or twice right handed and switch and repeat left handed.I would have no use for the jock that hit a horse 20 times with the same hand.It's like if I am behind you and I hit you on the left side of your shoulder , you are startled . Then too the right side and you are startled again. But if I hit the left side of your shoulder 20 times in a row, does hit 7-20 really do anything? At some point you create a mind set of a horse to resent it and possibly sulk from it creating a negative effect.
I used to have my riders use the stick backwards so to speak on first rides after I had claimed them.Because most all riders start with the stick in there right hand, I would have them start with it in the left hand ,then go right, as long as they had room to use it and the traffic he was dealing with warranted it .Just trying to have an edge.A dear friend of mine who left Md. after starting his riding career there and moved to Calif. that you know well I am sure, taught me that "the stick is best used as an element of surprise and anything more than that is a waste of time".I might not have figured that one out on my own . Boy was he right!

[JakeLc]

I know 1 pro and a 2nd who is considering making the leap. They live by the axiom " you may not beat a race but you can beat the races." They don't spend hours and hours poring over racing forms or looking at replays. Technology is a wonderful tool. carry on

[str]

I know 1 pro and a 2nd who is considering making the leap. They live by the axiom " you may not beat a race but you can beat the races." They don't spend hours and hours poring over racing forms or looking at replays. Technology is a wonderful tool. carry on

Must admit , the technology is very different than it was back in the day.
When I was doing it,having my own replay library was cutting edge too me.

[str]

well str since you are a trainer you should know that you can't push a horse every time out...this is truer in harness racing which you have no experience at...i know trainers who just do their work miles in pari-mutuel races that people bet on with no intention of trying to win even though their figures show that they have the best horse...in t-breds with less starts(the average horse only gets 13 lifetime starts) you should know that even there you can't push a horse to the brink...those pros you know are not revealing to a gullible trainer like you about the profit and loss sheets....

You can't push a horse every time out but they only run 13 times in there life?
Not sure where you got your averages but with many of the horses I had 1 1/2 to 2 starts a month was typical. Of course , acquiring most of them through the claim box, none of them fell in to the never ran category and that along with talking in terms of the 70s,80s,90s, instead of today might have something too do with the ave. start question.
As for the pro gambler debate you can believe anything you want to. I am simply telling you the truth. Feel free to believe me or not but I would have no reason to tell you anything other than what I witnessed first hand.
However, I see no reason for you to try to insult me.

[JakeLc]

Must admit , the technology is very different than it was back in the day.
When I was doing it,having my own replay library was cutting edge too me.

"Back in the day" before HRTV etc a local station showed the replays once a day and I recordd the show each day on VHS tape. So much time spent fast-forwarding or reversing thru endless tape searching for that specific replay from 3 weeks earlier that I wanted to see .

[str]

"Back in the day" before HRTV etc a local station showed the replays once a day and I recordd the show each day on VHS tape. So much time spent fast-forwarding or reversing thru endless tape searching for that specific replay from 3 weeks earlier that I wanted to see .

Exactly!

[Thunder Gulch]

I remember when I used to do the same thing with VHS. Now, the replays are widely available right after the race. The downside is -much like the usefulness of speed figures- that commercial availability has created a world of "trip" handicappers so any obviously impeded trip will be overbet.