1. 04-17-11 06:15 PM #1
    DennisT
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    Kentucky Derby

    A little sick of hearing about all the 1-5 or the 1-9 or the 3-2 heavy horses that can,t lose.

    So I am keeping Uncle Mo in my exacta box. Will take him Dialed In in an exacta box with all.

    Thoughts and luck to all playing today!!!
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  2. 04-17-11 08:02 PM #2
    TonyP
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    Im not sure what Ill do until after I see who is in the race and how the race shapes up.
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  3. 04-17-11 08:12 PM #3
    DennisT
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    TonyP, If you wait till then you got a stone cold lead pipe lock!!!
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  4. 04-17-11 09:41 PM #4
    Poppa Catfish
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    Hard to make a pick when we don't even know who is going yet.

    Gun to my head right now, I would have to take Luv Gov, either that or one of those awesome polish horses at the Keeneland meet.
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  5. 04-17-11 11:05 PM #5
    TonyP
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poppa Catfish View Post
    Hard to make a pick when we don't even know who is going yet.

    Gun to my head right now, I would have to take Luv Gov, either that or one of those awesome polish horses at the Keeneland meet.

    one of those awesome polish horses could proly do it.
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  6. 04-17-11 11:47 PM #6
    Seattle Slew
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    Uncle Mo should offer value as everyone has jumped off.
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  7. 04-17-11 11:58 PM #7
    Poppa Catfish
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seattle Slew View Post
    Uncle Mo should offer value as everyone has jumped off.



    If Mo gets a lot of play, great I'll play against him, if he gets no play I will probably take a shot with him. I really like the way this is playing out.
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  8. 04-18-11 01:40 AM #8
    FindTheLock
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    50-1 dudes! That's the kind of stuff you only get in horse racing, and it actually hits in the kentucky derby sometimes!! 50 to frickin 1!! I didn't hit it, but it isn't that stupid of a bet in this sport. I don't know the first thing about this sport. I just know betting LONG dogs isn't a bad strat from the little I have seen.
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  9. 04-18-11 01:59 AM #9
    Poppa Catfish
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    Quote Originally Posted by FindTheLock View Post
    50-1 dudes! That's the kind of stuff you only get in horse racing, and it actually hits in the kentucky derby sometimes!! 50 to frickin 1!! I didn't hit it, but it isn't that stupid of a bet in this sport. I don't know the first thing about this sport. I just know betting LONG dogs isn't a bad strat from the little I have seen.
    Especially the derby where you take a bunch of high class superior horses and throw them into a sea of chaos, long shots are great bets here.
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  10. 04-18-11 07:55 AM #10
    Gremlin Lad
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    This year's three year old crop is like a bunch of yearlings. Very Good one day and cannot remember what they were taught the next day.

    Looks like a seven number exacta box for me using )two 3-1 odds horses) with (three 7-1 to 12- 1 odds range horses ) and (two horses with good jockeys.)

    For A $1.00 that will cost $42.00

    Might get brave a do it for $2.00 but that is all this race is worth.

    Might throw a few bucks on the two day daily double......OAKS/DERBY
    have to wait and see on that.
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  11. 04-18-11 08:51 AM #11
    mikemca
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    After all the preps I watched Nehro and thought he would be my horse because he isn't on anyones radar.Now everywhere I look I see he is the wise guy horse and won't be the price I thought he would be.So I guess I am looking somewhere else.I have Dialed In pretty big in the first future pool so I can toss him and use the future bet as a saver.Same with Jaycito if he get in.In the end it will depend on how the post position draw shakes out.
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  12. 04-18-11 09:29 AM #12
    str
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    It is hard enough to sort the race out when you know the post positions and how the race might set up.
    Without the set up, the pace and shape of the race is totally up in the air.
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  13. 04-18-11 10:02 AM #13
    Thunder Gulch
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikemca View Post
    After all the preps I watched Nehro and thought he would be my horse because he isn't on anyones radar.Now everywhere I look I see he is the wise guy horse and won't be the price I thought he would be.So I guess I am looking somewhere else.I have Dialed In pretty big in the first future pool so I can toss him and use the future bet as a saver.Same with Jaycito if he get in.In the end it will depend on how the post position draw shakes out.
    Yeah, I really liked the move Nehro made in the Louisiana Derby, which was his stakes debut, but everyone saw what he did at Arkansas, so the odds will be sliced in half or more... I will be interested to see Jaycito this weekend. If he throws a clunker on the polytrack, he could be a usable bomb at 30+. This is really about finding the horse who is ready to run his best because nobody has shown anything this spring that looks imposing. Macho Man may be the one for me, but I'm not crazy about his pedigree.
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  14. 04-18-11 10:10 AM #14
    zebra58
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    april 30th derby trial should be great i'm guessing 3 on the earnings bubble will enter, 2 tried it last year eightyfiveandafifty & pleasant prince
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  15. 04-18-11 10:16 AM #15
    TonyP
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikemca View Post
    After all the preps I watched Nehro and thought he would be my horse because he isn't on anyones radar.Now everywhere I look I see he is the wise guy horse and won't be the price I thought he would be.So I guess I am looking somewhere else.I have Dialed In pretty big in the first future pool so I can toss him and use the future bet as a saver.Same with Jaycito if he get in.In the end it will depend on how the post position draw shakes out.

    I liked archarcharch until his arkansas derby win now he will proly get some action. liked nehro as well he will get alot of action to. still depends on post position and who gets in where they figure to be at in the race before I wage on it. Does
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  16. 04-18-11 12:42 PM #16
    dogkatcher
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    The way it's going in the Derby preps this year, I think you can
    look forward to getting a 4 or 5-1 starting favorite, no problem.
    Should be a great wagering race. Good Luck, we'll all need it.
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  17. 04-18-11 01:29 PM #17
    joeyp1222
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    Quote Originally Posted by TonyP View Post
    one of those awesome polish horses could proly do it.
    dont laugh too hard that polish guy is due for a monster think he got a 4th so far gonna pop a big one i can feek it lol
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  18. 04-18-11 01:33 PM #18
    joeyp1222
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    what about the irish horse that won in dubai master of hounds, he might be the winner nobody mentions him
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  19. 04-18-11 10:48 PM #19
    dugbug15
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    there's always the good old alphabet handicapping system in a race where many of them are reasonable win candidates.start with the 1rst letter of the horses name in in post positon 1,then continue on to pp2,pp3,and,so forth until an alphabet letter matches the 1rst letter of the horses name,then,continue on to get your 2nd horse,omitting the 1rst horse you chose.continue on for more horses for your exacta boxes.this was my quick pick method in my old booze guzzling days.i landed some good ones ,too. not exactly scientific,but,good as any quick pick selection on the self betting machines.
    good luck to everyone,however you pick-em.
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  20. 04-18-11 11:38 PM #20
    Seattle Slew
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    Probably won't even settle on a horse until the night before.
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  21. 04-19-11 01:05 AM #21
    Poppa Catfish
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    Quote Originally Posted by joeyp1222 View Post
    dont laugh too hard that polish guy is due for a monster think he got a 4th so far gonna pop a big one i can feek it lol
    Yep, Grey Prince got 4th. Of course he was only 9-1 odds at post time, I think I would have to be getting 50-1 odds to bet on one of those polish studs, and I still would only do it for kicks. If one actually wins I think I might die from laughter.
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  22. 04-19-11 01:08 AM #22
    Poppa Catfish
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    Quote Originally Posted by joeyp1222 View Post
    what about the irish horse that won in dubai master of hounds, he might be the winner nobody mentions him
    Master was only runner up in the UAE derby, but I got to say he has my attention. As does Mucho Macho Man.
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  23. 04-19-11 08:03 AM #23
    mikemca
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poppa Catfish View Post
    Master was only runner up in the UAE derby, but I got to say he has my attention. As does Mucho Macho Man.

    Master of Hounds is a toss from a win perspective.
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  24. 04-19-11 08:10 AM #24
    Brewers in 7
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    gonna be one of those years where 20 horses are between 6-1 and 35-1... im liking Nehro as my play.
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  25. 04-19-11 08:16 AM #25
    mikemca
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    I like Nehro's chances too but he may be the 2nd choice in the wagering and that would be tough to take.
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  26. 04-19-11 08:28 AM #26
    zou1222
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikemca View Post
    Master of Hounds is a toss from a win perspective.
    Why do you think this? Its definitely tough for a euro to ship in and win the derby. But if he comes soon enough to get a work over the track I think he could have a big shot. His sire sired Lemon Drop Kid who handled the dirt fine. And if he rates off the pace like he did in the UAE Derby he could get a perfect trip depending on post positions, etc...Not sure I could fully toss him.
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  27. 04-19-11 08:52 AM #27
    mikemca
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    The 3 yr old crop over there was so bad it was dominated by 3 fillies.So his 2nd place in the UAE Derby really isn't saying much.

    He will be making only his 2nd start this year so his conditioning is probably 20th of the 20 in the field.

    He is by King Mambo out of a Sadlers Wells Mare if that isn't turf I don't know what is.

    Making his 1st start on dirt in the Kentucky Derby isn't too appealing.

    The only reason he is coming over is because they are ducking Frankel.

    He is too slow on the sheets

    Horses shipping across the pond don't fare well
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  28. 04-19-11 09:14 AM #28
    zou1222
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    Fair enough I would tend to agree with most of those.

    Conditioning would def be my biggest fear with him...

    Don't think you can compare the 3 yo old crop to the Southern Hemisphere fillies who were clearly more developed over there...

    He definitely has some knocks and I probably won't have any win money on him..could be intriguing in some boxes, etc. however..
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  29. 04-19-11 09:15 AM #29
    zou1222
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    Does anyone have a link to kentucky derby contender pp's yet?
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  30. 04-19-11 09:46 AM #30
    mikemca
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    Here is the DRF version from the 3rd future pool


    http://www1.drf.com/images/pdf/Derby_FuturePool_3.pdf
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  31. 04-19-11 10:09 AM #31
    Thunder Gulch
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    Archarcharch is still underrated at the current odds.

    Olympic
    5701 Uncle Mo +545 5702 Dialed In +425 5703 The Factor +1615 5704 Much Macho Man +1415 5705 Soldat +2250 5706 Stay Thirsty +2550 5707 Jaycito +2550 5708 Santiva +5250 5709 Tobys Corner +1515 5711 Sway Away 5714 Brethren 5715 Decisive Moment +4550 5716 Pants on fire +3550 5717 Animal Kingdom +4050 5718 Archarcharch +1215 5719 Twice the appeal +5250 5720 Midnight Interlude +1615 5721 Comma to the top +4550 5723 Nehro +1015 5725 Alternation 5726 Shackleford +3050 5727 Brilliant Speed +3250

    You could make a case for a lot of these...Santiva at 52-1 isn't impossible. Draw a line through a non effort on the poly where he was totally bottled up and he's right there with Macho at 4x the price.
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  32. 04-19-11 11:46 AM #32
    zebra58
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikemca View Post
    The 3 yr old crop over there was so bad it was dominated by 3 fillies.So his 2nd place in the UAE Derby really isn't saying much.

    He will be making only his 2nd start this year so his conditioning is probably 20th of the 20 in the field.

    He is by King Mambo out of a Sadlers Wells Mare if that isn't turf I don't know what is.

    Making his 1st start on dirt in the Kentucky Derby isn't too appealing.

    The only reason he is coming over is because they are ducking Frankel.

    He is too slow on the sheets

    Horses shipping across the pond don't fare well
    that was one nice filly that beat him a nose, i'm putting him in my top 3
    good luck
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