1. 10-29-10 01:58 PM #1
    DuncHen22
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    Duncan's NHL Value Plays

    I'm testing out a value play system based on AccuScore's predictions. This is basically just to keep a record. If it doesn't work I'll shut up but if it does, then great! I would recommend not tailing these right now. Money I'm using for this is fake. For now.

    For starters I'll play everything to win 1 unit. If it looks like it's working I'll adjust it to get the most value out of each play.

    Bolded play = best value

    Starting bankroll = $2000
    1 unit = $100

    10/29 Plays:

    Anaheim +100; 1u to win 1u
    Pitt -135; 1.35u tw 1u
    NYI -125; 1.25u tw 1u

    Daily Total: $360 to win $300
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  2. 10-29-10 02:11 PM #2
    gamemastere
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    wondering why so much line movement on anaheim since this morning any ideas?

    has moved from -120 to even since this morning
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  3. 10-29-10 03:09 PM #3
    DuncHen22
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    Yeah I was trying to figure that out but really have no idea. I'm very skeptical about accuscore's prediction on that but I'm just playing a system.
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  4. 10-29-10 03:38 PM #4
    gamemastere
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    yeah I already got my bet in on the ducks, in several parlays as well so just real curious about the movement
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  5. 10-29-10 03:51 PM #5
    dcollins86
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    Can anyone see any reason why the Ducks ML is so big... Are there any significant injuries or anything???
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  6. 10-29-10 03:53 PM #6
    JC2008
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    Why don't you guys just leave this game alone? It looks fishy as hell...
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  7. 10-29-10 04:56 PM #7
    DuncHen22
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    Believe me, JC. If I was really betting, I'd stay way away from this game. I'm just posting the system plays as is for now. If it seems like it's working, I'll take a more dynamic approach and step back from games like this.
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  8. 10-29-10 11:10 PM #8
    DuncHen22
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    Dang, 0-2 on my first 2 games and it's looking like I may be 0-3 on the day.

    Not giving up over 1 bad day, though. We'll be back tomorrow.
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  9. 10-29-10 11:18 PM #9
    CapsFan
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    Lets bounce back Anaheim Come on
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  10. 10-30-10 01:41 PM #10
    DuncHen22
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    10/30:

    Capitals -110
    Predators +145
    Sharks -210
    Thrashers +185
    Rangers +130

    According to my value system, Atlanta's line should be +140, which gives it the best value. I like the Capitals play 2nd most, though.

    All plays are to win 1 unit

    Daily total: Risking $519.94 to win $500
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  11. 10-30-10 09:57 PM #11
    DuncHen22
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    Damn! Thrashers threw that game away. Oh well, it was still a good value play. Obviously it was a lot closer than Vegas expected and worth more than the +185 they were giving.

    I got the Rangers but lost the Predators. Caps are down 1 and Sharks are up 2.

    If things stand as is I'll be 2-3 on the day with a loss of $33.02. If anything changes I'll update it.

    That's 2-6, -3.9u on the year. It's still too early to call this in as it's a long term approach.
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  12. 10-30-10 11:01 PM #12
    DuncHen22
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    WTF?! Caps score 6 in 2nd period??

    Sharks scored 2 more to lead 4-0. I'm feeling pretty good about these two games now. But crazier things have happened, I guess.

    Well that would change today's record to be (if the scores hold):

    3-2, +$176.98

    Overall:

    3-5, -1.8 units
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  13. 10-30-10 11:14 PM #13
    DuncHen22
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    No games tomorrow and only 3 on the 1st. Hopefully we can get 1 play then but I won't force it.

    Have a happy halloween!!
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  14. 11-01-10 04:58 AM #14
    DuncHen22
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    11/1

    Vancouver -165
    Carolina +165


    Both to win a unit.
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  15. 11-01-10 02:43 PM #15
    DuncHen22
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    Holy cow! Canucks are up to -190 in 5Dimes now. Glad I got it in early. No good value above -170.
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  16. 11-01-10 11:22 PM #16
    DuncHen22
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    Canucks -165 Win $100
    'Canes +165 Loss -$60.61

    Daily total: 1-1 +$39.39

    Overall: 4-6 -1.44u
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  17. 11-02-10 01:17 AM #17
    DuncHen22
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    I don't think I'll be playing anything on Tuesday. Closest play there is would be Edmonton +130 since I valued the line at +110, but I usually look for a bigger advantage than that.

    We have to be patient.
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  18. 11-03-10 01:09 AM #18
    DuncHen22
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    Big card today:

    Caps -215
    Canes -150
    Wings -115
    Predators +115

    All to win 1 unit

    Daily total: $566.96 to win $400

    I know -215 is a big line but they should be an easy winner here. I think the Puckline of +135 has some good value too if you don't want to risk so much.

    AccuScore predicts Carolina winning 68% of the time, which would imply a line of -215 or so. That gives the Hurricanes the "best bet of the day" award. BOL!
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  19. 11-03-10 01:14 AM #19
    DuncHen22
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    Adding Anaheim -115.
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  20. 11-03-10 01:24 AM #20
    grizzly19
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    Anaheim is a terrible bet.

    Wings and Canes also very risky...good chance to lose.
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  21. 11-03-10 01:19 PM #21
    DuncHen22
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    Quote Originally Posted by grizzly19 View Post
    Anaheim is a terrible bet.

    Wings and Canes also very risky...good chance to lose.
    You may be right, but I'm just playing based on what AccuScore predicts for the odds of winning.
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  22. 11-04-10 12:12 AM #22
    DuncHen22
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    Quote Originally Posted by DuncHen22 View Post
    Big card today:

    Caps -215 WIN
    Canes -150 WIN
    Wings -115WIN
    Predators +115 LOSS
    Ducks -115WIN

    All to win 1 unit
    Great day for me today!!!!

    4-1 +$313.04 (3.13 u)

    That puts me over my starting bankroll.

    Total:
    8-7 (53%) +1.69u


    Bankroll: $2169.42
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  23. 11-04-10 01:51 AM #23
    DuncHen22
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    Just one play today:

    Sharks +105 to win 1 unit
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  24. 11-05-10 02:38 PM #24
    DuncHen22
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    Sharks lost, which put my total at:

    8-8 +.74 units
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  25. 11-05-10 02:42 PM #25
    DuncHen22
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    I'm going to try to change up the units now, based on the strength of the value.

    Plays today:

    Panthers -135 (to win 1 unit)
    Ducks +115 (to win 1.5 units)
    Caps -130 (to win 2 units)
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  26. 11-05-10 02:46 PM #26
    TwiistedDragon
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    curious why caps, like the other two plays.
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  27. 11-05-10 04:18 PM #27
    DuncHen22
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    I'm merely basing all my plays off AccuScore's predictions. They give Caps a 65.8% chance of winning, which would imply the line should be more like -190 (and thus, a line of -130 has a lot of value). Is AccuScore correct in this prediction? I have no idea, but I thought I would see if it's a profitable system to follow.
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  28. 11-06-10 12:52 AM #28
    DuncHen22
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    Quote Originally Posted by DuncHen22 View Post
    I'm going to try to change up the units now, based on the strength of the value.

    Plays today:

    Panthers -135 (to win 1 unit) WIN
    Ducks +115 (to win 1.5 units)WIN
    Caps -130 (to win 2 units)WIN
    3-0 +4.5 units today!!

    Total: 11-8 (58%) +5.24 units

    Finally turning around! But I understand this is just one day. Let's be cool and just keep it going.
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  29. 11-06-10 03:21 AM #29
    DuncHen22
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    Some plays to get your day going:

    Panthers +130 (1u)
    'Canes under 5.5 (1u)
    Predators +160 (2u)
    Canadiens -120 (2u)
    Islanders +135 (1u)
    Blackhawks -150 (1u)

    Those are the only games with lines right now. I'm going to bed and will do the rest in the morning.
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  30. 11-06-10 12:42 PM #30
    DuncHen22
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    Adding:

    Blue Jackets -160 (1.5u)
    Coyotes under 5.5 -115 (1.5u)
    Sabres +135 (1u)
    Sharks -140 (2u)
    Avalanche -140 (1u)
    Avalanche over 5.5 -140 (1u)
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  31. 11-06-10 12:42 PM #31
    DuncHen22
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    Daily Total 18.3 units to win 16 units:

    Panthers +130 (1u)
    'Canes under 5.5 (1u)
    Predators +160 (2u)
    Canadiens -120 (2u)
    Islanders +135 (1u)
    Blackhawks -150 (1u)
    Blue Jackets -160 (1.5u)
    Coyotes under 5.5 -115 (1.5u)
    Sabres +135 (1u)
    Sharks -140 (2u)
    Avalanche -140 (1u)
    Avalanche over 5.5 -140 (1u)

    Big card today. Let's cash it!
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  32. 11-07-10 12:13 PM #32
    DuncHen22
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    Quote Originally Posted by DuncHen22 View Post
    Daily Total 18.3 units to win 16 units:

    Panthers +130 (1u) LOSS
    'Canes under 5.5 (1u)WIN
    Predators +160 (2u)LOSS
    Canadiens -120 (2u)LOSS
    Islanders +135 (1u)LOSS
    Blackhawks -150 (1u)WIN
    Blue Jackets -160 (1.5u)LOSS
    Coyotes under 5.5 -115 (1.5u)LOSS
    Sabres +135 (1u)WIN
    Sharks -140 (2u)WIN
    Avalanche -140 (1u) WIN
    Avalanche over 5.5 -140 (1u)LOSS
    5-7 -4.68 units!

    Terrible day everywhere today. Hopefully this is just a bad run. I'm not giving up on it yet.
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  33. 11-07-10 12:40 PM #33
    DuncHen22
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    Only 1 play today and I'm not even going to play a full unit since it's right on the cusp.

    Capitals -185 (.75u)
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  34. 11-07-10 07:33 PM #34
    DuncHen22
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    Quote Originally Posted by DuncHen22 View Post
    Only 1 play today and I'm not even going to play a full unit since it's right on the cusp.

    Capitals -185 (.75u)WIN
    At least something went my way today.
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  35. 11-07-10 11:09 PM #35
    DuncHen22
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    No plays on Monday.
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