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CaptNumbers 2010 NHL Thread
Here is my year long post for my NHL system plays.
Please consider the following if you decide to follow my plays:
1. Money Management is crucial. I do not put more than 0.5% of my bankroll on any one game.
2. I don't put any more weight on one game over another. My analysis looks for large situational variables and tries to take into account the biggest sample size possible. I would NOT RECOMMEND picking select games based on my handicapping. I would play all of them or none.
4. I have tried to develop a system that fits into my lifestyle. I have a full time job so I will try and get my picks in by about at least an hour or so before the first game of the day.
5. When I do put my picks out, the line will be based on either 5dimes, Matchbook, or Bet Jamaica, as these are the books I play. Juice is extremely important in winning but when I make a pick, if the game is a -110 I would play it just the same as a +150. I hate when you follow handicappers and they put out a line that is not truly able to be wagered. Don't let it paralyze you if you can't get the exact same line. I am a believer that if a play falls within my system, I will make the play getting the best odds possible I can.
6. I have 2 different systems that involve playing the same games. One game is a straight One Unit per game system while the other is a modified chase system. I hesitate to call it a "chase" system, but I use different variables relating to my overall results to determine the units I will be betting on each game for that system. The chase system is conservative so if we have a good consistent season I may not have to chase at all.
7. I will be posting "A" plays and "B" plays. All of the "A" plays will be 100% plays that I make myself. The "B" plays are plays that I believe have value but do not have enough data back tested to support my theory. I will most likely be making these plays as well, but will put about only half of my normal wager on them. It may go to a full unit as the season progresses or I may stop playing them all together depending on the results. Remember, I am a handicapper who looks for +EV. This definitely plays a huge factor in the "B" plays.
8. Please feel free to ask questions or comment on any of my posts. I love to discuss the theory used in my sports betting.
9. Finally, have fun and enjoy yourself. If you aren't doing that then you are probably wagering more than you should be. Good luck to all.
-CN
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Originally Posted by Eleven
. Just a gentle reminder that this is a year long grind and don't get discouraged. Best of luck to all!