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cobra_kings 2008 playoff analysis---Western Conference
Detroit Red Wings (54-28, 1st Seed)
Overall Analysis
The Red Wings once again finished first, but the question again this season, as it has been every season since their last cup win in 2002, is just how good are they? The loyal followers point to the 115 points and Presidents Cup and claim they are the best team in the league. Their critics point to their incredibly weak division and their over 30 games against non playoff teams as the reason why they accumulate so many regular season points, but have recently faltered in the playoffs. So which theory is correct? It says here that the critics are correct and the Red Wings will be in for another playoff disappointment in the very strong Western Conference. Though obviously a very strong team, the Red Wings have some serious flaws which will be exposed when the chips are down. First, although experienced, their defence corps have some serious flaws to them, especially in regards to controlling outside speed. Secondly, and far more importantly, they have a major issue in goal. Dominek Hasek is scheduled to be the opening night starter, but he gets the start not on merit, but on his name only. Chris Osgood has been the better goaltender throughout the season, but will serve as back up to start the playoffs. If Hasek struggles, expect Osgood to take over. However, if you are relying on Osgood to ride you to a Cup in 2008 than as a team you are in deep trouble. The Wings will be at a disadvantage in net against every other serious contender in the West and since goaltending and defence win Cups, this team comes up woefully short on this front.
1st round analysis
Of all the teams the Wings didn't want to face in the 1st round, Nashville was at the top of the list. Although Vancouver has perhaps the best netminder in the NHL in Roberto Luongo, the Canucks with their anemic offense, would have had zero chance to expose any of the Wings weaknesses. Nashville on the other hand, has speed on the Wings which could be problematic at times for the older Wings defencemen. Lidstrom, obvioulsy is not a concern for the Wings, but the other older, slower players may have problems controlling some of Nashville's speed. This might be the one team where Detroit won't be completely overmatched in goal as Nashville will start Dan Ellis in goal, who supplanted Chris Mason as the number one netminder. Ellis is capable but is very inexperienced and it will be interesting to see how he reacts. Detroit should still win this series, and move onto round 2, where some of their deficiencies will begin to be exposed.
Betting Value
There is no value at all in playing the Red Wings, but there will most likely be alot of it playing against them in individual games, especially at home where they have proven vulnerable later in the season at big odds.
San Jose Sharks (49-33, 2nd seed)
Overall Analysis
Of all the Western Conference teams heading into the playoffs, the Sharks appear to be the hottest of them all. Yes they did lose their last two, but those games were meaningless, and before that they had garnered a point in 18 straight games. This team is very strong defensively, with an outstanding goaltender and one of the top forwards in the game in Joe Thorton. At times they do have trouble scoring goals and if anything is going to stand in their way it will be their tendency at times to not be able to score enough. Aside goaltending and defence, being able to win on the road is of major importance, especially the deeper a team goes in the playoffs. San Jose had the best road record in the league and this will serve them well in any playoff matchup they encounter. I believe this team is one of the two serious contenders to win the Stanley Cup.
1st Round Analysis
Calgary is up for the Sharks in the 1st round and this will probably be the most physical series of the 1st round, which will be of interest since they will be playing on back to back nights in San Jose in games one and two. Calgary has the type of goaltender who can stymie a team so the Sharks must be careful to not get themselves out of their game and begin forcing too much. If they play the same game that served them so well down the stretch, they will be too much for the Flames and will move onto round two.
Betting Value
Probably not much in round 1, but value may begin to be found in the later rounds when they are playing on the road. They will be solid plays anytime they are an underdog on the road.
Minnesota Wild (44-38, 3rd Seed)
Overall Analysis
This is probably the most non descript playoff team this year. They play games close to the vest and rely on turnovers and shoddy defensive play by opposing teams to light the lamp. They also have solid goaltending in Nikolas Backstrom. After last years first round loss to the eventual Cup Champion Ducks where they were pushed around in every game they played, they bolstered their line up so that they will not be out muscled like that again. However, against the Avalanche this type of muscle will not be needed. Occasionally this team is prone to defensive breakdowns and with their reliance on other teams mistakes, if this team gets behind they may struggle to catch up. I believe this team is a step below the Sharks and Ducks and it will show in the playoffs.
1st Round Analysis
They meet the Avs in round 1, and the fact they built this team to not get pushed around by the likes of the Ducks may actually come back to haunt them in this match up. If undisciplined penalties become a problem in this series, the Avalanche will eventually take advantage and send the Wild to the sidelines. This series is too tough to call, but i believe that the Wild will do themselves in and become victims in the first round.
Betting Value
Their first round matchup will be very competitive and thus, depending on the lines, you could make a case for wagering on them when they are playing in Denver as they are more than capable of winning games in the Mile High City. Long term playoff potential though is slim so i don't believe there will be any value in Conference or Cup titles.
Anaheim Ducks (47-35, 4th seed)
Overall Analysis
This season was a tale of two seasons for the Ducks. The first half of the year involved 3 things which many teams have difficulty overcoming and the Ducks were no different. First, they opened the season in London, England, disrupting the normal teams flow to start a season. Secondly, the infamous Championship hangover that so many teams, in many different sports have. And third, they played the first half of the season with two key cogs from last year in Scott Niedermeyer and Teemu Selanne. From the start of the new year on, this team, which at one point was fighting for the 8th seed played like the champions they are. The continue to get quality goaltending and with two stalwarts on defense back for the playoff run, this team will be hard to deny. Chris Prongers suspension may in the end help as he will be much fresher in the playoffs. The only drawback to the suspension will be if he commits another flagrant foul in the playoffs as the league, which took alot of heat for the leaness of his latest one, will be under alot of pressure to come down severely on him. All and all though, this is the other team that i believe will be a serious Cup contender.
1st Round Analysis
The Ducks draw Dallas in round 1, a team that recently has had some trouble advancing through the early stages of the playoffs. As you would expect, a 4-5 matchup should be a battle between two very good teams, especially when discussing the Western Conference. I expect Anaheim to win this series but Dallas will put up a fight and should win a couple of games, but overall the Ducks have just a little too much for them.
Betting Value
I don't believe there will be very much value at any point in the playoffs wagering on the Ducks, with the possible of exception of the Western Conference finals (assuming they get there) while they are playing on the road.
Dallas Stars (45-37, 5th seed)
Overall Analysis
Dallas has exceeded expectations this year, as some pundits had predicted a complete fall off for this team. Early in the year it looked like they might be true, but with the firing of GM Doug Armstrong, and the hiring of Stanley Cup hero Brett Hull seemed to energize this team, making them appear to be legitimate Cup contenders at many points during the season. Hull took a bold step and traded for Brad Richards at the deadline, but the Stars still suffer from a lack of scoring, especially at key points in hockey games. Goaltender Marty Turco, who has had a rough go of it during past playoffs, finally stepped up last year against Vancouver and nearly won the 1st round series all by himself. Goaltending won't be an issue this year as i expect Turco to play well, however they drew a very tough assignment in the Ducks, and with Sergei Zubov out indefinately and this team faltering going into the playoffs, i'd be very surprised if they got out of round 1.
Betting Value
Depending on how the first two games of the series go in Anaheim, they might be worth a shot at home in game 3. However if the Ducks handle them with relative ease in the first two games, they would have to be longer odds than normal to be deemed worhtwhile of a play at all.
Colorado Avalanche (44-38, 6th seed)
Overall Analysis
Colorado is much like Anaheim in that they had two different seasons, though their seasons can be broken down into "With Joe Sakic" and "Without Joe Sakic". Even at 38, this team is completely different when he's on the ice, healthy and playing. Their moves at the deadline, reacquiring Adam Foote and Peter Forsberg makes one believe that it's the year 2000 all over again, and its the ability of these older players staying healthy and effective will determine their fate. They were fortunate to draw Minnesota in the first round as this is a team that they probably can handle. Jose Theodore re-established himself as a top flight goaltender this season and is again capable of winning games by himself. If they can win round 1 and draw Detroit in round 2, they may be able to able to capitalize on some of Detroits weaknesses and find a way to the Western Conference final.
Betting Value
This team does hold some value. In round one, they will be dogs in every game played in Minnesota and if they make it to round two they will be even bigger dogs if they can draw Detroit and they are more than capable of upsetting Detroit in any individual game and the series. Much though will depend on the ability of their captain to stay healthy.
Calgary Flames (42-40)
Overall Analysis
The Flames are one of those teams that you just don't know what to make of. They have a superstar in Iginla, a stud defenceman in Phaneuf, and a top flight goaltender in Kiprusoff. They also have Mike Keenan, and it won't be until the end of the day, that we know whether or not he's helping or hindering the Flames cause. His head games with goaltenders is well known as well as his battles with star players. If the Flames get behind early in the series and Keenan pushes the wrong buttons, everything may all come crashing down. On the other hand, though it was a while ago, he does know how to win it all and if everyone is able to be on the same page the Flames will be a tough out for any team. Unfortunately they draw the Sharks in round 1, perhaps the favorite to win it all and in the end they will be defeated by the better team.
Betting Value
They will be around +180 during their two road games in San Jose, if you think they are capable of making it out of their with a split than most definately fire away in game one. If they somehow make it past round one and get the Wings, they too will have underdog players drooling at the prices you will get them in relation to their ability to win that round.
Nashville Predators (41-41, 8th seed)
Overall Analysis
Big props must be given to this team for hanging in throughout this season. Pretty much dismantled in the offseason by an owner who wanted out, they were left for dead but somehow managed to put it all together in the stretch and with the help of the Canucks collapse, made it in to the playoffs. They actually drew a team they may have a chance to win a game or two against but overall they probably will fall short of what would be a very nice story.
Betting Value
Most definately worth a shot in games one and two in Detroit while being in the neighbourhood of +230-+250 dogs in Detroit who have shown a knack late in the season to being beaten on home ice by inferior teams. Don't be surprised if this team keeps both games close and actually takes on in Detroit
Eastern Conference tommorow
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lookin forward to your east preview
Originally Posted by moses millsap
