Well I can't wait any longer I am officially opening my 2010-2011 NHL thread I have crunched the numbers from all my bets from last season to find out my strengths and weaknesses. It was a long, painful process but I feel it will be useful for the upcoming season. Without further ado here are the numbers:
2009-2010 Season Overall
229-174-8 +$5106.64 (56.82%)
Regular Season
190-140-7 $4442.14 (57.58%)
Playoffs
39-34-1 +$664.50 (53.42%)
Before I get into the breakdown by bet type I will say I was definitely happy with my overall totals. Things got a little hectic in the playoffs and I was betting a bit more than I was comfortable to make sure I achieved my goal of $5000 or more profit for the year. I was happy that I hit it and this year I have bigger expectations.
My Goals for the Year
-$10,000 total profit.
-Win rate of 58% or higher.
Now the breakdown of my strengths and weaknesses from last season.
ML Bets
62-58 -$357.50 (51.67%)
I realize that in order to be successful in betting ML's in the NHL you definitely need to bet dogs regularly and avoid the heavy juice. Last year I probably bet around 5% total dogs so really I am lucky not to be down more. This season I will be doing my best to bet underdogs and low juice only for ML's.
PL Bets
12-8 +$712 (60.00%)
I was pretty shocked when I did the math and found out I made only 20 PL bets all year. With a record of only 4 over .500 and a profit of $712 I really realize that this is a must in order for long term success in pucks. I will be doing my best to make PL's a regular bet in my arsenal.
TOTALS
76-59-5 +$2003.37 (56.30%)
I definitely feel the most comfortable betting totals as opposed to ML's. I am very happy with my totals and I feel totals are still my bread and butter. I'd say roughly 70% of my totals were overs as I absolutely can not stand watching games in which I bet under It is just too stressful. Overs will continue to make up the majority of my total bets.
PERIOD TOTALS
64-30 +$3382.50 (68.09%)
These numbers really bring a smile to my face. I think it's pretty incredible I managed to keep a 68% win rate over 94 bets. 1st period overs were definitely my favorite bets of last season. 95% of these bets were 1st period overs. I got into the live bets and was using a chase system for 2nd and 3rd period bets with fairly good success in the playoffs. However I am a true grinder and really hate having to chase. It can get ugly in a hurry. I will likely be sticking to 1st period overs only for this season.
PROPS
4-2 +$218.33 (66.67%)
These are all penalty bets I was doing at the start of the year. I found that Rivalry games (EDM vs CAL / TOR vs MTL) etc were usually pretty golden for penalties in the first 4:59 which was the bet I made. However these are comparable to russian roulette but I may start looking into player props as I have had great success in player props in MLB.
TEAM TOTALS
2-0 +$212.50 (100%)
These I definitely will need to look into more for this year. I love totals and team totals are a bit of an untapped resource.
TWO TEAMERS
2-0 +$207.44 (100%)
I avoided doing parlays and two teamers last year for whatever reason. Two teamers can be great pairing together two high juice bets for a low or even plus money parlay. I will be trying these out this year more often.
3+ TEAM PARLAYS
0-2 -$105 (0%)
I only track $50+ bets on my spreadsheet and generally just throw $5-$10 on hero parlays hoping to strike it rich I won't be posting these likely at all this year.
1ST PERIOD ML
0-3-2 -$515 (0%)
These really were travesties last year I was going through a quick action period and these really didn't work out well. I won't be doing any of these this year. I wouldn't recommend you do either. 1st period -0.5 spreads for example have a lot better value.
CUP BET
0-1 -$50 (0%)
Not much to report here I just bet $50 on my beloved Canucks as I will likely do again this year I may bet $50 on 2-3 teams though.
PLAYOFF SERIES BETS
2-4 -$279 (33.33%)
These didn't work out too well last year with the unpredictable playoffs but I feel they offer good value and I will be on them again come playoff time.
Well there's the breakdown of last year. Clearly totals are my forte and I will continue to use them as the majority of my plays. I doubt I will be touching preseason puck as I really feel betting preseason isn't a smart idea.
In closing I look forward to a great year with all you degenerates from last year and looking to sharing inputs with other great NHL cappers. About a month to go before the first regular season game gets underway. I can't wait