[Cranium]

Does anyone know the values used by vegas to create pucklines? I'm trying to find out if the PL is juiced or it's fair price.

For example in baseball this might be a typical fair line for ML and RL:

Home favorite is -180 and the Runline would be -1.5 -110---70 cent move
Road Dog would be +200 and Runline would be + 1.5 + 120-- 80 cent move

I know some use the ML in football to see if the line is heavy or light.

Thanks,
Cranium

[DennisGreen]

Hockey PL's are usually a lot better value as 1 goal games in hockey are a lot more commonplace than 1 run games in baseball. Can't remember exactly because I didn't bet a lot of PL's but I definitely know they have a lot better value in the NHL. Of the top of my head I would guess that a -175 ML favorite would be around +130 or higher for PL. I would ask Cecil he is the PL master around this dojo.

[cecil127]

I would ask Cecil he is the PL master around this dojo.

live by the PL-die by the PL......
there's an art in finding the fav that can whip the dog by 2 goals for +$. i havent mastered it by any means but it is a work in progress....

[Cranium]

Thanks for the replies, I'm going to do some more digging on this one.

Do you know what % of all NHL games are decided by one goal?

[hels]

just a guess but I would say somewhere around 33% of games are decided by 1 goal.... I would expect the exact number to be between 25-45% but I haven't seen the exact figures anywhere

[Types]

interesting topic

[BetterBizness]

Even just looking at the element of possibilities, at least there isn't that Run Line Gyp that is given with the Home team in the Bottom of 9...

[floridagolfer]

From what I've seen in baseball this year, the difference generally is more than .70 or .80. I'd expect to get better than even money on a -180 favorite. But whether this is similar to hockey, I don't know.

Through the first 105 games of last year's NHL season, 38 games were decided by one goal (36.1 percent). That does not necessarily relate to any importance between ML and PL, however, since the underdog certainly won some of those games outright.

[Cranium]

Florida... I have the same .70 or .80 difference as well in MLB. What I'm looking for is something like that for NHL. I believe I could profitable in NHL with something similar. If I had to guess it would be 1.5 or 1.6 difference for ML to PL.

I guess I'm going to check out Pinny old lines and see how much they award on the PL for home/away. I'd guess it would be different for each team. Could be a nightmare.