1. 03-24-10 06:12 PM #1
    DennisGreen
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    Trying Out a System

    I've seen this done in the play of the day points contest and it seems to have some success. What you do is bet on the dog and the favorite PL. One is guaranteed to lose obv, but if you hit either the dog ML or the fave PL you make profit.

    I bet $5 on the following:

    PIT (+175)
    WAS PL (+150)

    NYI (+125)
    NYR PL (+210)

    MTL (+140)
    BUF PL (+180)

    STL (+160)
    DET PL (+160)

    LA (+100)
    COL PL (+220)

    ANA (+170)
    VAN PL (+160)

    As you can see one goal games for the favorite result in losses for both but if you hit one of two plays in each game you will make a profit. Let's see how this goes
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  2. 03-24-10 06:23 PM #2
    TheN3Wguy
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    what is considered 1 unit? .. 10$ 100$?

    ty for information and time

    greatly appreciated
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  3. 03-24-10 06:27 PM #3
    DennisGreen
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheN3Wguy View Post
    what is considered 1 unit? .. 10$ 100$? ty for information and time greatly appreciated
    All depends on the bettor but in general 1 unit = $100.
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  4. 03-25-10 08:22 AM #4
    fjordo
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    Hey DG, you takin my system? Lol, JK. Are you going to keep track on a daily basis? I honestly find it hard, to everyday have the time to update the record, and post the new plays, so if you are going to stay on top of things, I can send anyone following my thread, over here.
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  5. 03-25-10 09:12 AM #5
    tomcast
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    good luck
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  6. 03-25-10 10:45 AM #6
    DennisGreen
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    Quote Originally Posted by fjordo View Post
    Hey DG, you takin my system? Lol, JK. Are you going to keep track on a daily basis? I honestly find it hard, to everyday have the time to update the record, and post the new plays, so if you are going to stay on top of things, I can send anyone following my thread, over here.
    LOL is this your system? I couldn't remember, I just knew that someone in the NHL points contest did this. If you originated it all the power to you I am just gonna do this for a week and bet $5 on each outcome and see how I end up. I forgot about your thread and you doing this, good work you are on to something
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  7. 03-25-10 10:49 AM #7
    sundin4prez
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    good luck
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  8. 03-25-10 10:52 AM #8
    DennisGreen
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    Tough night for the system yesterday as there were a lot of favorite one goal wins

    PIT (+175) -$5
     WAS PL (+150) -$5
    TOTAL -$10

    NYI (+125) -$5
    NYR PL (+210)     +$10.50
    TOTAL +$5.50

    MTL (+140) -$5
    BUF PL (+180) -$5
    TOTAL -$10

    STL (+160) -$5
    DET PL (+160)     +$8
    TOTAL +$3

    LA (+100) -$5
    COL PL (+220) -$5
    TOTAL -$10

    ANA (+170) -$5
    VAN PL (+160)     +$8
    TOTAL +$3

    Overall Last Night -$19.50
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  9. 03-25-10 11:42 AM #9
    dyosh808
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    I did something similar with baseball. Just a thought have you tried looking only at games where the over is favored?
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  10. 03-25-10 11:46 AM #10
    DennisGreen
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    Quote Originally Posted by dyosh808 View Post
    I did something similar with baseball. Just a thought have you tried looking only at games where the over is favored?
    I haven't but that might be a smart idea as high scoring games would result in more PL's being covered. For now I'm just gonna do this for every game for a few and see how I fare.
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  11. 03-25-10 12:26 PM #11
    Jive
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    I've been doing this (thanks to fjordo) with tiny bets for a bit, but with a little twist. If it is a short favorite (around -155 or less) I will take the full-game ML for the dog, but the three-way, regulation only line for the favorite. It does cut into your profits when you win, but you get a little bit of insurance because instead of losing when the favorite wins by one goal, you only lose when the favorite wins by one goal that comes in OT. An example of this is tonight with Calgary and the Islanders. I would take the Islanders to win at roughly +120, and the Flames -.5 in regulation at +120. Certainly a much smaller payout than the puckline, but it gives an additional out.
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  12. 03-25-10 12:30 PM #12
    DennisGreen
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    Sorry by the way Fjordo I totally forgot you had been doing this. Wasn't trying to rip off your system and take credit for it I will call it the Fjordo System
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  13. 03-25-10 01:26 PM #13
    fjordo
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    Quote Originally Posted by DennisGreen View Post
    Sorry by the way Fjordo I totally forgot you had been doing this. Wasn't trying to rip off your system and take credit for it I will call it the Fjordo System
    No problem DG, and I can't say that I originated it, I just hadn't seen anything like this, and thought it was worth a go. Honestly, just call it what you want, I won't take any offense to whatever you call it.
    I will stop keeping track in my thread, as I was only using money amounts to see if it was profitable, or not. I was not actually laying money on the games, although maybe I should have. Congrats to anyone that had the balls to.
    With the odds that your laying, as long as the favourite wins by exactly one goal less than about 20% of the time, this will be profitable long term. I will keep track of this stat in my thread, because apparently, that is the important one.
    Before last nights games, I was up 15.41 units. I know last night was not good, but I've realized there are good days, and bad, for example, just Tuesday night, there was a gain of over 7 units on the night.
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  14. 03-25-10 02:05 PM #14
    MathewXB
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    Quote Originally Posted by fjordo View Post
    No problem DG, and I can't say that I originated it, I just hadn't seen anything like this, and thought it was worth a go. Honestly, just call it what you want, I won't take any offense to whatever you call it.
    I will stop keeping track in my thread, as I was only using money amounts to see if it was profitable, or not. I was not actually laying money on the games, although maybe I should have. Congrats to anyone that had the balls to.
    With the odds that your laying, as long as the favourite wins by exactly one goal less than about 20% of the time, this will be profitable long term. I will keep track of this stat in my thread, because apparently, that is the important one.
    Before last nights games, I was up 15.41 units. I know last night was not good, but I've realized there are good days, and bad, for example, just Tuesday night, there was a gain of over 7 units on the night.
    Just wondering how do u measure ur units?
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  15. 03-25-10 02:07 PM #15
    fjordo
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    Quote Originally Posted by MathewXB View Post
    Just wondering how do u measure ur units?
    If you were using DGs plays, 1 unit would be $5. So really, you are wagering 2 units on every game.
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  16. 03-25-10 03:39 PM #16
    do5000
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    looks interesting. will be watching.
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  17. 03-25-10 03:55 PM #17
    TodaysAction
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    Might want to use the under being favored for puck-lines , see what that will turn up for you if going double-dipping.
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  18. 03-25-10 09:23 PM #18
    DennisGreen
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    Wow the system owned today, pretty much nothing but dogs winning tonight
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  19. 03-26-10 10:28 AM #19
    Nimo
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    I tried this in 2003 for the entire regular season(did not include playoffs). I ended up +12 units. Not great but better than negative units.
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  20. 03-27-10 07:30 AM #20
    Jempa
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nimo View Post
    I tried this in 2003 for the entire regular season(did not include playoffs). I ended up +12 units. Not great but better than negative units.
    Out of curiosity from the system POV, did you record whether if you'd include the playoffs in the system, how much more +/- would you've ended on?
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  21. 03-28-10 06:18 PM #21
    Toronto Fc
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    I would imagine playoffs would not be very profitable because of all of the 1 goal games. A better idea for the playoffs might be to just take the dogs in every game. There are always upsets and + money seems like a wise idea at that time.
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