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NHL rookie rankings: Elias Pettersson is the clear front-runner 🏒
NHL rookie rankings: Elias Pettersson is the clear front-runner
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The 2018-19 rookie class has some elite players at the top of it, but unlike in recent years, things tend to thin out a little faster when it comes to first-year players. As most teams have played about 75 percent of their games, we thought it was a good time to take a look at the current rookies.
There is little question about who is at the top.
1. Elias Pettersson, C, Vancouver Canucks
After Pettersson started his NHL career with a five-goal, eight-point outburst over his first five games, you might as well have called the Rookie of the Year race at that point. Of course, despite injury costing him multiple games, Pettersson kept running away from the pack all the way to this point in the season. He had a 19-point advantage on his next closest rookie competitor heading into Thursday night. Pettersson, with his 1.06 points-per-game scoring rate, is also having the most productive season by a rookie on a per-game basis since Evgeni Malkin registered 1.09 points per game in 2007.
With his deadly accurate shot and sweeping, deceptive release to go along with superior offensive sense and creativity, Pettersson looks like a franchise-altering player. He's the kind of guy you hope you can land but often don't when picking fifth overall. Now, the Canucks have a legitimate cornerstone forward who looks more like a long-term centerpiece.
This is the third straight season in which Pettersson obliterated expectations, having earned MVP honors as a U20 player in the Swedish Hockey League last year and rewriting the record books for a player of his age. He's now the best rookie in his class by a mile and quickly becoming one of the top forwards in the league. It seems like you can't set the bar high enough for this player.
2. Rasmus Dahlin, D, Buffalo Sabres
Having been the No. 1 pick last year, Dahlin has been as good as everyone expected him to be, if not a little better. The Sabres might be struggling, but Dahlin's game only continues to grow, and so does his point total. A stat that has been cited an awful lot is how Dahlin is the most productive 18-year-old defenseman since his head coach Phil Housley, who had 66 points in 77 games in 1982-83. The next guy after Housley was Bobby Orr, who had 41 points in 61 games as an 18-year-old rookie. Dahlin's raw point total is almost sure to pass Orr's. According to hockey-reference.com, there have really only been 24 18-year-old defensemen who appeared in at least 35 games in an NHL season. He's also doing it in his first season in North America, navigating a smaller ice surface, any lingering language or cultural barriers and playing against the best players on the planet.
Meanwhile, Dahlin's ice time is going up as the season progresses, and he seems to be getting better. Since the calendar flipped to 2019, Dahlin has played less than 20 minutes in a game only four times. He's a plus-possession player on a relatively poor team, boasting a 4.6 percent relative Corsi for, and is fourth among all rookies, with 131 shots on goal. His skating, puck skills, vision and hockey sense are all high-end, and not just for his age. Dahlin is trending toward superstar No. 1 defenseman, which is right on for all of the projections we saw last year.
3. Miro Heiskanen, D, Dallas Stars
Heiskanen is getting overshadowed a bit, but this season he's shown how good a fit he is for being part of the long-term solution in Dallas to bust out of the mediocrity that has seemingly plagued the franchise of late. With high-end skating ability and hockey sense, Heiskanen has made a near seamless transition to the NHL after a successful run in Finland's top pro league. He leads all NHL rookies in average time on ice by over two minutes per game, and the Stars are possessing the puck at a slightly better rate than their average with Heiskanen on the ice.
His offensive numbers are solid enough, but I'm more impressed with his all-around game and maturity. That poise has been a hallmark of Heiskanen's game from the time he was a prospect, and the fact that he is as confident as he is, and also that his coaches are as confident in him, is such a great sign for the future. He's going to play a significant role in this league for a very long time.
4. Jordan Binnington, G, St. Louis Blues
This is a tough one because Binnington hasn't even appeared in half of the Blues' games this season, but the run he's on right now has allowed them to turn their season around. He has started only 18 games, but is 15-2-1, boasts an absurd .936 save percentage, and 27 percent of his starts have ended in a shutout. It's an unreal heater, but it's hard to know just how sustainable this kind of performance is for the rest of the season and what the future holds. Since Binnington made his first appearance with the team in December, the Blues are 22-9-2, giving them the second-best record in the entire NHL in that time frame. Despite his lack of workload, Binnington's arrival has helped stabilize the Blues' goaltending and allowed them to actually get themselves into the playoff picture. You can't argue with that level of impact no matter how small a sample.
5. Brady Tkachuk, LW, Ottawa Senators
There isn't a whole lot left around Tkachuk in Ottawa at this point, which is going to test the young forward's abilities and thrust him into an even bigger role. He is very likely to be a top-line wing the rest of the way and has already shown glimpses of that being a suitable role for him going forward. Tkachuk is third among all rookies in points per game with a 0.60 rate and leads all rookie wingers with an average of 15 minutes, 31 seconds of ice time per game. Tkachuk has also shown his grittier, nastier side to make him a thorn in the side of other opponents.
One of the more intriguing elements of Tkachuk's rookie season ishow much better the team is at controlling the puck with him on the ice. With Mark Stonegone, Tkachuk has the best relative Corsi for percentage at 7.5 percent among all Ottawa regulars, and there's very little indication that he's being sheltered this year. Those numbers are likely to dip now that Stone is out of the picture, but Tkachuk has high-end hockey sense and is still figuring out how to use his large frame. He's clearly a cornerstone piece of this team's rebuild.
6. Carter Hart, G, Philadelphia Flyers
Hart has done little to dissuade the notion that he's going to be a solid No. 1 goalie in the NHL. The Flyers haven't had a terribly high bar to clear in recent years, but Hart is playing like a guy who wants to set a new standard. He is likely to graduate from prospect status this year, having already appeared in 22 games. According to hockey-reference.com, Hart is one of just 23 goalies to appear in 20 or more games at age 20 or younger. He has the second-best save percentage among them, with his .917 mark trailing only Carey Price.
If you would have told me he'd be playing in the NHL and playing this well earlier in the season, I would not have believed you. Hart did not look overly impressive in the AHL, but he has managed to establish himself quickly against the best. This kid thrives on the big stage.
7. Jesperi Kotkaniemi, C, Montreal Canadiens
While I thought Kotkaniemi could play in the NHL this season, I don't think I expected him to perform this well and be given this kind of opportunity this soon. He ranks fifth among rookies with 31 points while being the youngest player in the NHL this season. He won't turn 19 until July but has been better than advertised as a No. 3 center. I wasn't totally convinced Kotkaniemi had No. 1 center upside as much as I liked him last year, but he has given me reason to reconsider this year. I think Claude Julien has put him in the right positions to succeed, but there have been plenty of young centers who have shriveled with similar opportunities. He has been one of the most pleasant surprises of this rookie class, and he's one of the guys I'm most looking forward to seeing next year with an extra year of NHL development under his belt.
8. Andreas Johnsson, LW, Toronto Maple Leafs
One of the older rookie skaters in this class, Johnsson has rather quietly put together a very strong season and only seems to get better as the year progresses. The Leafs have given him good opportunities this year in terms of ice time and time on the power play. Of this year's rookie class, Johnsson is top five in scoring but ranks second with 30 of his 36 points coming at even strength heading into Thursday night's action. He can play with pace and has a sturdiness to him despite not being the biggest guy. It helps to be on a good team, but Johnsson has made his presence felt right alongside Toronto's superstars.
White has been a bit under the radar, but he should become a more prominent piece of what Ottawa tries to do long term. A versatile center who can play so many different roles on the team is likely to be the No. 1 guy down the middle the rest of the way. It appeared he was on a fast track to the NHL a few years ago, but injuries knocked him off course a bit. He appears to be back on track now and surging in a role that only grows next season.
10. Andrei Svechnikov, LW, Carolina Hurricanes
Svechnikov has not dominated, but he's still only 18 and has seen his ice time fluctuate throughout the season. The Russian is pouring shots on net, leading all rookies with 152 shots on goal over 63 games. His 14 goals are respectable at this stage of the season, but there have been flashes of brilliance for the youngster, and he has managed to show off his elite shot more than a few times this year. Svechnikov clearly has a goal scorer's touch, and once he has a chance to move up in the lineup, the numbers should move right up with him.
Honorable mention:
- Dominik Kahun, RW, Chicago Blackhawks
- Rasmus Andersson, Calgary Flames
- Anthony Cirelli, C Tampa Bay Lightning
- Mathieu Joseph, Tampa Bay Lightning
- Linus Ullmark, Buffalo Sabres
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