Which Stanley Cup-less team will be the next to win one?
Mathew Coller
ESPN INSIDER
One of the unique elements of this year's Stanley Cup Final was the presence of two teams that had never won the Cup before.
Behind terrific play from their star scorers and strong goaltending, the Washington Capitals checked their name off the inauspicious list of clubs without a championship. And they followed it up by partying like a team that had waited 44 years for a title.
So which team will be next? Let's have a look at the chances for each team that hasn't yet raised the Stanley Cup:
1. Nashville Predators
Debut season: 1998-99Stanley Cup Final appearance: 2017
Why they could be next: Since the Predators acquired P.K. Subban, they have reached the Cup Final and the second round of the playoffs in two years. The former Norris Trophy winner is part of a supremely talented and deep group of defensemen who drive puck possession and shut down opponents' top players. Overall, the Preds finished with the second best goals for percentage in the NHL in 2017-18.
While they did not go as far in the playoffs as Nashville fans hoped, Predators GM David Poile improved the forward group this year by adding a strong No. 2 center in Kyle Turris, who is under contract through 2025.
With improved depth, the Predators don't have to rely entirely on their star forwards Filip Forsberg and Ryan Johansen to carry their offense. However, they certainly can handle the load when called upon. Forsberg produced 64 points in 67 games and was on the ice for 52 goals for and only 27 against last season.
With a complete top-to-bottom team and star players all in their primes, the window is wide open for Nashville to win the Cup.
Why it might take a while: This did not prove to be true about the Capitals, but sometimes when a great team misses its shot, it's simply because other teams pass them. The Predators were defeated by the Jets, who have a young roster stacked with gifted offensive players. The Colorado Avalanche appear to be on the rise. Edmonton Oilers superstar Connor McDavid hasn't yet entered his prime -- and he's already the second best player in the world (at worst). Vegas could be a contender for years to come. The competition will be stiff in the West.
Moreover, how many good seasons does Pekka Rinne, 35, have left, and can apprentice Juuse Saros match his predecessor?
2. Winnipeg Jets
Debut season: 1999-2000 (as Atlanta Thrashers)Stanley Cup Final appearances: N/A
Why they could be next: The Jets finished second in the NHL in goals scored, fifth in goals allowed, ninth in power-play percentage, fifth on the penalty kill and first in the Western Conference in even-strength scoring. And they did so with a team whose top four goal scorers are 25 years old or younger. At the top of the list is Patrik Laine, 20, who has 80 goals in just 155 career games.
The Jets' top defensive pair of Josh Morrissey and Jacob Trouba took steps forward this season, and neither player has reached age 25. Winnipeg outshot opponents 147-116 with them on the ice during the playoffs.
Finally, it appears Winnipeg has a franchise goalie. After a rocky 2016-17, Connor Hellebuyck bounced back with a brilliant 44-11-9 campaign, including a .924 save percentage. He is just coming into his prime at 25.
Why it might take a while: There is no glaring reason the Jets should fall off anytime soon, but several of their key players are getting up in age. Blake Wheeler, who led the team in scoring with 91 points, is 31 years old, and powerhouse defenseman Dustin Byfuglien is 33. Bryan Little and Mathieu Perreault are also in their 30s.
Also, if Winnipeg doesn't win during Laine's rookie contract, they might be looking at spending more than $10 million per year on his next deal, which could restrict other moves. We also don't know if Hellebuyck can sustain his success over the years to come, or if his 2017-18 was the outlier.
3. Vegas Golden Knights
Debut season: 2017-18Stanley Cup Final appearance: 2018
Why they could be next: The Golden Knights were so shockingly close to winning the Cup in their first year, and there doesn't appear to be anything fluky about it. The most unusual part of their club compared to other expansion teams of the past is that it was filled with players who are in their primes or still improving. Top point producers Jonathan Marchessault and William Karlsson are 27 and 25, respectively, and dynamic offensive defenseman Shea Theodore is 22 years old. And more young help is on the way, with Vegas having three first-round picks in 2017 thanks to deft trading.
Making the Golden Knights even more dangerous going forward is the fact that they have the third-most cap room in the NHL this offseason, according to CapFriendly. They could make a run at free agent John Tavares or be in play to trade for Erik Karlsson.
Why it might take a while: Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury's unbelievable play in the first three rounds was the biggest driving factor for Vegas' playoff success. En route to the Cup Final, he posted a .947 save percentage in series victories over Los Angeles, San Jose and Winnipeg. His performance against the Capitals was much less impressive, as Fleury posted an .853 save percentage during the series. At 33 years old, it seems unlikely that the longtime Penguin could put together an incredible run in the playoffs again.
Then there's the possibility of regression. Karlsson, who notched 43 goals, had the highest shooting percentage in the NHL. That's bound to slip. The Golden Knights also saw big contributions from veteran free agents who may choose to head elsewhere on the market, like James Neal and David Perron.
4. Columbus Blue Jackets
Debut season: 2000-01Stanley Cup Final appearances: N/A
Why they could be next: Remember when the Blue Jackets were up 2-0 on the Capitals in the first round? The Jackets sputtered for much of the season but found their stride toward the end of the campaign on the back of some exciting young players.
Pierre-Luc Dubois, the third overall pick in 2016, debuted with 48 points in 82 games, while 23-year-old Seth Jones and 20-year-old Zach Werenski developed into one of the league's elite top pairs. There is no better formula for winning the Cup than putting a bunch of top draft picks together.
Columbus is also blessed with one of the best goalies in the NHL in Sergei Bobrovsky.
Why it might take a while: Teams that raise the Stanley Cup usually have at least one overwhelmingly talented, all-time great forward. Since the 2004-05 lockout, we have seen Pavel Datsyuk, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Patrick Bergeron, Anze Kopitar and now Alex Ovechkin lead Cup teams. There is a chance Dubois becomes that level of player, but if he doesn't, the Jackets team is built on a great top pair and a lot of good-not-great forwards.
5. Minnesota Wild
Debut season: 2000-01Stanley Cup Final appearances: N/A
Why they could be next: The Wild must have been conflicted watching the Golden Knights in the Cup Final. While two former teammates were skating for Vegas, in Erik Haula and Alex Tuch, the Golden Knights also navigated the West with a goaltender who had been good for a long time but was known for his playoff struggles. Minnesota netminder Devan Dubnyk is just 8-18 in the playoffs, with a .904 save percentage. Since joining the Wild, his regular-season mark is 19 points higher. Eventually things could click in the postseason for Dubnyk.
This isn't the only hope they have. Minnesota head coach Bruce Boudreau has a lot in common with Capitals' bench boss Barry Trotz, who had been in the playoffs 10 times without reaching a conference final before this year.
There is also the idea that new general manager Paul Fenton -- a former assistant GM in Nashville -- makes moves to shake up the core, or add the final pieces to the puzzle.
Why it might take a while: The Ryan Suter-Zach Parise era has been full of first- and second-round outs but hasn't shown any evidence that the Wild can get over the hump. The Wild are stuck in the middle. They do not have a young roster with potential abounding, or a roster with stars in their prime. Without a significant change, Minnesota may be destined for the same results for years to come.
6. St. Louis Blues
Debut season: 1967-68Stanley Cup Final appearances: 1968, 1969, 1970
Why they could be next: It might feel like the Blues are far away after missing the playoffs this year, but here's how close the NHL is these days: St. Louis ranked sixth in Corsi for percentage and 13th in goals for percentage at even strength this past season. Vegas was 13th and 11th, respectively.
The Blues have a number of star players who are in their primes. Winger Vladimir Tarasenko, 26, is a recent 40-goal scorer, 26-year-old forward Brayden Schenn scored 70 points last season and top defenseman Alex Pietrangelo is 28. Whether it is goaltending, coaching or depth, something has always stood in the Blues' way, but they have the top-end talent to be a consistent contender. Top prospects Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas appear ready to play significant roles as soon as next season.
Why it might take a while: Goaltending has been the bane of the Blues' recent existence, whether it is in the form of postseason meltdowns or long stretches of inconsistency during the regular season. St. Louis hoped Jake Allen would be the answer, but thus far it has been more of the same. Carter Hutton was impressive this season, but he's hitting free agency.
The supporting cast for the established stars has deteriorated. Veteran players Alexander Steen and Jay Bouwmeester still have key roles, but they have seen a dropoff in play.
7. Florida Panthers
Debut season: 1993-94Stanley Cup Final appearance: 1996Why they could be next: Two words: Aleksander Barkov.
The Panthers made a bevy of bizarre moves last offseason, including giving Vegas players that would become their second- and fourth-leading scorers. But they have one thing that other hopefuls dream of: a young, elite two-way center. At 22, Barkov scored 78 points last season and smothered opponents' top lines.
The Finnish center is flanked by three other quality scorers in Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck and Evgenii Dadonov. The rest of the roster needs work, and star goalie Roberto Luongo is 38, but they can find the other pieces to fill in around their budding superstar.
Why it might take a while: Florida has struggled to find its organizational direction during the past few seasons. They went through some turbulence while shifting philosophies and missed the playoffs two years in a row since winning the Atlantic Division in 2015-16. And it hasn't helped that former No. 1 overall pick Aaron Ekblad has plateaued after a terrific rookie season.
8. San Jose Sharks
Debut season: 1991-92Stanley Cup Final appearance: 2016
Why they could be next: In a stacked Western Conference, San Jose will not have the easiest time remaining a contender with Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton, Brent Burns, Paul Martin and Marc-Edouard Vlasic all in their 30s. They can only hope that the big-swing move of re-signing Evander Kane gives them the offensive boost they were missing last season and that the defense corps is still good enough to control the game in front of solid goalie Martin Jones.
Why it might take a while: If the window is open, it's only open a crack. Thornton missed the playoffs with an injury and, at age 38, it is tough to see him coming back as strong as he was during San Jose's run to the Cup Final in 2016. And one result of having consistent success year after year is that it is difficult to find the next wave of stars via the draft.
9. Buffalo Sabres
Debut season: 1970-71Stanley Cup Final appearances: 1975, 1999
Why they could be next: The Sabres finally won the NHL draft lottery, coincidentally in a year when they did not have the worst record. This year's deadlock first overall pick, dynamic defenseman Rasmus Dahlin, is exactly what Buffalo has been desperate for since beginning their rebuild. The first few years of Jack Eichel's career haven't been perfect, but he still has 177 points in 204 games.
While GM Jason Botterill had to press the restart button on the rebuild, teams with a top-notch No. 1 center and top-pair defenseman are never that far away.
Why it might take a while: Botterill inherited a tough situation. The Sabres have some tough contracts to work around as they attempt to get back in the race. Ryan O'Reilly and Kyle Okposo are set to combine for a $13.5 million cap hit through 2023. And Buffalo isn't just short on depth -- they have none. The prospect system hasn't yielded as many promising players as you might think for a team that has struggled for so long, although 2017 first-rounder Casey Mittelstadt appears ready to contribute next season.
The goaltending situation is also unclear. Buffalo can become a contender, but they do not appear to be on the cusp.
10. Arizona Coyotes
Debut season: 1979-80 (as Winnipeg Jets)Stanley Cup Final appearances: N/A
Why they could be next: Following a lot of excitement last offseason, the Coyotes flopped in the regular season, finishing with the worst record in the NHL. Maybe they jumped the gun by acquiring veterans like Derek Stepan, Alex Goligoski and Jason Demers, but those players can still be effective in their late primes.
Whether Arizona jumps into the race anytime soon will rest on whether key top draft picks like Dylan Strome, Max Domi and Clayton Keller eventually become a successful core. Signing star defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson to a long-term deal this offseason will certainly help the cause.
Why it might take a while: Strome showed some progress last season, but he hasn't yet shown flashes of being a franchise player; the fact that he was in the AHL for the majority of 2017-18 is unusual in today's game for a former No. 3 overall pick. Domi also hasn't taken any huge strides forward since a strong first season, and the Coyotes are limited in what they can spend on free agents to support their youngsters. In order to compete for a Cup, they will need a perfect storm of prospects to hit during the next few years.
11. Vancouver Canucks
Debut season: 1970-71Stanley Cup Final appearances: 1982, 1994, 2011
Why they could be next: The only way Vancouver is next is if the other teams on the list simply fail to get the job done over the next five years. With due respect to quality young forwards Bo Horvat and Brock Boeser, the Canucks have much work to do in the post-Sedins era to fill out the roster. It will take time to get back to the pack, much less ahead. Two silver linings: Boeser scored 29 goals in 62 games at age 21, and 2017 first-round pick Elias Pettersson has been ranked by many, including ESPN's Chris Peters, as the top drafted
prospect.
Why it might take a while: The players with the two worst contracts in the organization, Brandon Sutter and Loui Eriksson, also have no-trade clauses. Horvat and Boeser's supporting cast is extremely thin, and the defense corps is anchored by Chris Tanev, who has played only 95 games total during the past two seasons. It's unlikely that many top free agents will pick the Canucks in their current state of contention.
12. Ottawa Senators
Debut season: 1992-93Stanley Cup Final appearance: 2007
Why they could be next: Aside from an act of complete randomness or a very long stretch where none of the above 11 teams reaches the Cup Final, there is no good argument for the Senators being next in line, especially if they do not get an extension done with Erik Karlsson this summer. Their best hope is to trade Karlsson and completely rebuild from scratch.
Why it might take a while: They aren't that far removed from an Eastern Conference Final appearance, but the Sens have an extreme lack of scoring beyond Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone, very little depth and a starting goalie who is 37 years old. Their whiffs in recent drafts have gone from uncanny bad luck to a clear sign of something wrong with the organization.
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Which Stanley Cup-less Team Will Be The Next To Win One?
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