Best bets for the Stanley Cup Final
- Greg Wyshynski
- Ben Arledge
ESPN INSIDER
Not many picked the Vegas Golden Knights and the Washington Capitals to play for the Stanley Cup. The Knights' storybook inaugural season is just a quartet of wins from ending with a championship, and likewise, Alex Ovechkin at last has a chance to add the final missing piece to his legacy with a Cup ring.Vegas has been a tough team to match up against, and goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury is having a historic postseason. The Capitals stand in the way with a pair of double-digit playoff scorers and a hot goalie themselves in Braden Holtby.In order to find the best ways to bet the series, we asked Greg Wyshynski and Ben Arledge to provide some Stanley Cup Final betting advice, including how to play the series price, pick the Conn Smythe Trophy winner and where the value lies in Memorial Day's Game 1 in Las Vegas.Note: All odds via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of May 25.
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Washington Capitals
Wyshynski: The Capitals are just locked in right now, getting their best defense and goaltending of the season and watching Ovechkin have his most impactful postseason. Without the mental baggage of previous playoff defeats anchoring them down, the Capitals are soaring. Two of the Capitals' three series went six, and seven of the past 10 Stanley Cup Finals ended in six.Prediction: Capitals in six games
Pick: Capitals +125Arledge: It took me a long time to buy into the Knights as a legitimate Cup contender, but they're simply unstoppable right now. Fleury is rattling off great start after great start, and the Knights' four lines of offensive depth are wearing down opponents. They aren't dropping huge numbers, sitting just ninth in goals per game in the playoffs (2.87), but they are giving up fewer than two goals per game and have a penalty-kill unit with an 82.5 percent success rate. That should help slow down Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov.If Fleury keeps playing the way he's been, Vegas wins. And I haven't seen any reason to believe he's anywhere near slowing down.I can definitely see this one going the distance, and the Knights hold home-ice advantage. Vegas is 6-1 at T-Mobile Arena during the playoffs. The "Knights in seven" exact series price is +350 and should be worth a consideration.Prediction: Golden Knights in seven games
Lean: Golden Knights -145
Conn Smythe
Marc-Andre Fleury (5-7)
Wyshynski: While I think the Capitals will win the series, I think Fleury has a significant chance of winning playoff MVP in a losing effort. He enters the Final with a .947 save percentage, which is the best in NHL history for goalies who have played at least 15 games in a postseason. Plus, an opening is there if multiple Capitals -- Ovechkin, Kuznetsov and Holtby -- can lay claim to the MVP, while Fleury is the clear reason the Knights are in this series. But mostly, the voters might want to honor a well-loved guy, not just for his playoff performance but for what he's meant to the Knights this season. Five players have won the Conn Smythe in a losing effort, and four of them were goalies.Arledge: Fleury has been downright amazing through the first three rounds of the playoffs. If the Knights win the Cup and he stays healthy, he is going to win the Conn Smythe. There's just no one else playing even remotely near the level Fleury is at right now. As Greg pointed out, there's even a real strong chance Fleury wins MVP if the Capitals take the Cup -- he's been that good. It'd be the first time it's happened since 2003, when Jean-Sebastien Giguere won it for a Mighty Ducks of Anaheim team that lost in seven games.This is my best bet of the Final. In fact, if you like the Knights to win the series, as I do, then I recommend betting Fleury to win the Conn Smythe instead of the team at the slightly better number. If they win, he wins. And if they lose, he still might win. There's just no explaining how locked in Flower is right now. Alex Ovechkin (9-5)
Arledge: The NHL loves to give this award to the story, and in this case, a Capitals championship would be all about Ovechkin finally getting that ring. All of the playoff letdowns, all of those goals scored and all of that conversation about him being a top-three NHL player over the past decade culminating here with the Stanley Cup title he's been chasing for 13 seasons. Not satisfied? Only Winnipeg Jets forward Mark Scheifele has more goals in the playoffs than Ovi's 12, and the Russian is one of 15 forwards to register north of 21 minutes per game in the playoffs. He has two game-winning goals, for whatever that's worth, and if the Caps win, Ovechkin is without a doubt going to be a massive reason why. Evgeny Kuznetsov (25-1)
Arledge: This one is a long shot, but he is leading all skaters with 24 points and has tremendous 25-1 odds. If Ovechkin stays even within arm's length of Kuznetsov's production through the remaining games, he will probably win the award with the storyline backing (or Fleury will). However, if Kuznetsov nets a few this series and establishes himself as the biggest offensive contributor for Washington with a strong Final, he could be looking at an upset Conn Smythe win. If you're looking to get extreme value with the understanding that there are more likely winners, this is your guy.
Game 1
Monday, May 28, 8 p.m. ET in Las VegasWyshynski: The nine-day layoff gives me pause. The Knights are 3-0 in their first home game of each series, outscoring their opponents 12-2, though that 7-0 victory over the San Jose Sharks obviously skews this. The Capitals themselves have admitted they never do things the easy way. They're also the fifth team since 1987 that advanced to the Final even though they trailed at one point in each previous round. I like them to trail here again, and for the teams to hit the over.Prediction: Golden Knights 4, Capitals 2
Best bets: Golden Knights -150 and over 5.5 goals +105Arledge: The Knights will come into Game 1 off nine days of rest and will do so in the friendly confines of T-Mobile Arena. Vegas is 2-0 when opening a series at home during these playoffs, outscoring opponents 8-0 in those two games. I know the layoff can sometimes be a negative, but fresh legs and home ice will go a long way in Game 1 against a Capitals team that just finished a grueling seven-game set against a good Tampa Bay Lightning outfit. Look for Vegas to strike early.Looking for some long-shot wagers with some good value attached to them? Consider Alex Tuch (20-1) or John Carlson (40-1) to notch the first goal.Prediction: Golden Knights 4, Capitals 2
Best bet: Golden Knights -150
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Best Bets For The Stanley Cup Final
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