Originally Posted by
PStrangers
Betting reverse line movements can be very profitable, you just have to know
1. What is a reverse line movement?
2. Why a reverse line movement happens?
3. Why reverse line movements still lose?
1. What is a reverse line movement?
As most of you know, a reverse line movement is when the majority of wagers (the percentage of bets) is greater on one side, but the line moves to make betting on this team more favorable.
I. E. The Flyers open as a -134 favorite against the Maple Leafs. 64% of the wagers are on the Flyers, but the Flyers move to a -125 favorite.
2. Why a reverse line movement happens?
There are two reasons why reverse line movements happen.
A. Some books (mostly in Las Vegas) prefer to have as balanced of action as possible, and by balanced I mean in total amount wagers, not number of bets. Las Vegas books will routinely take smaller profits for lower total risk. If they book achieves balance action, they get the juice and make money regardless of thew inner. Therefore, they move the line based on the dollar amount of action taken, not on the number or wagers.
I. E. The Flyers opened as a -134 favorite. A book takes $20,000 worth of action at the Leafs +124 and $10,000 worth of action on the Flyers -134. Right now if the Leafs win, the book loses money. Therefore, it moves the line to -125 in hope that more betters will bet the Flyers. Since they don't give a damn about the number of betters, the reverse line movement gives you information about how much money is bet on each side.
B. Some books (most online books) are willing to take short term losses if it increases their long term gain. Therefore, they don't try to balance the book but instead look for an edge. These books track there winning and losing sports betters. If the majority of winning players are on a particular side they move the line to try to get increased action on the team their winning players are expecting to lose.
I. E. The Flyers opened as a -134 favorite. A book sees that 5 of there clients who routinely win have bet the Leafs at +124 where 5 of their losing clients have bet the Flyers at -134. The books is greedy and in an effort to increase it's profit, moves the line to -125, effectively placing a wager on the Leafs to win.
3. Why reverse line movements still lose?
There are multiple reasons why reverse line movements will happen, and many do not mean they should be bet.
A. The classic example is the "Max Bet". Mr. Millionaire is in Las Vegas for the weekend. He is from Houston and loves the Texans. He places a $100,000 max bet on the Texans +7. The book had taked 70% of its action on the 9ners to cover the -7, including 5 winning sports players. But, they have no desire to have such lopsided action, so they move the Texans to +6.5. However, this does not mean the Texans are a good bet.
B. The next example came frequently last year during the NFL. Sharp betters can by systematically wrong. Road fav. of -3.5 to -6 covered at a huge percentage last year. There were numerous games which had reverse line movement on the home dog, but the road fav. kept covering. Even sharp betters are usually only winning ATS 57-60% of the time.
C. Game time changes. You don't look at the news and see that 64% of the bets are on the Flyers and the line moved from -134 to -125. So you bet the Leafs due to the reverse line movement. As it turns out, Claude Giroux is out with a concussion. The line moved due to a change in the game, nothing to do with the action taken of it. In this case, the Leafs would not be considered a good bet.
Hope all that made sense.
The point is, since the Flyers opened at -134 and the line moved down to -125 with 64% of the wagers on the Flyers it means either
1. The money taken on the Leafs was larger (and indication that sharp betters who bet more money are the leafs)
2. The winning players are on the Leafs (and the books move the line to side with the winning betters)
3. On of the other reasons listed above happen (maybe it being released that Steve Mason is between the pipes for the Flyers moved the line since he only had 7 starts last year, and the books moved the line since the line was set at -134 with Emery in net)
Personally, I made a small bet the Leafs. The reverse line movement points to the leafs, and as a Kings fan, I've see how good Bernier is in the net. I think the Flyers still need a lot of work, and I'm not confident in Mason. The only worry some thing is playing a rough game last night. Anyways, looking forward to a good game.