1. 05-19-12 02:26 PM #1
    Inkwell77
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    Teams down 0-3 are 18-12 ats if given +1.5 goals

    Since the lockout in 04-05 teams in playoff series in the 0-3 situation have lost by 2 goals and been swept 12 times (including this season).

    18 other times when down 0-3 they have either won they game or lost by only 1 goal (including this season).


    Also, teams down in a series playing in an elimination type of game (be it down 3-0, 3-1, or 3-2) if given +1.5 goals would be 40-18 ats since the 2008-2009 season (not including this season).

    Given that -150 juice is the breakeven mark for a 60% win rate, it would seem that if you can get maybe a little value here with any number better than -150, right? Hopefully this is correct.

    Phoenix +1.5 goals -145! Lets go!!
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  2. 05-19-12 06:22 PM #2
    a4u2fear
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    If you are correct, 40/58 = 69%, -145 is break even at 145/245 = 59%, so you have a 10% edge if you assessed it correctly
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  3. 05-19-12 06:23 PM #3
    a4u2fear
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    I'm already on PHX +1.5, glad to see this.
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  4. 05-20-12 03:59 PM #4
    Inkwell77
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    Boom!

    Don't let 4 goals get by in the 3rd!
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  5. 05-20-12 04:37 PM #5
    a4u2fear
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    Winner!
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