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If you're going to rely on somebody else's numbers make sure you have a very clear understanding of where the weakness(es) in those numbers may be. How can the Phoenix playoff win over Chicago be a huge upset when Phoenix already beat Chicago 3-1 in the season series? Morevarianceluck? They had their number the whole time.
Yes, more variance....got lucky....however you want to call it. If Crawford doesn't let in two butter soft OT goals and Chicago wins this 4-1 would you really be that surprised? The margin for error and the margin of victory in the NHL playoffs is very thin, and luck will always prevail in a short best of 7 series.
For real? Phoenix wins 7 out of 10 games against Chicago this season and it's luck? I'm sticking to my own method.
For sure, just remember that both teams could win, no teams should win, and luck has had a big part in all results up to this point and will have a big effect on the games yet to be played. It's all about the frequencies and then finding a discrepancy in the offered lines based on your interpretation of the "true frequency", which no one knows.
Our whole discussion so far has been about nothing at all if you didnt notice
Interesting stuff, I think that Phoenix upset was largely due to Smith's play, even up the goal tending play in that series and Chicago takes it.Originally Posted by aznbluff
Tend to agree
Interesting discussion and I wonder how well the stat model in question pairs up teams and playing styles, or whether its stat analyses produces a rating more along an independent merit. For example, certain teams will have each others' numbers due to matchup issues, whereas comparing season long stats and matching them against another season long stat model might not expose the most important factors. What does the model predict for the Caps Rangers series?
Not really. You told me that Phoenix winning 7 out of 10 against the same team was luck. And you did so because the outcome doesn't fit with your model. I would question the model. Many sports are 'games of inches', and the ability to gain that extra inch is often what makes the difference. By your general reasoning that ability would be luck, because it's just one inch, which has little or no statistical relevance.Our whole discussion so far has been about nothing at all if you didnt notice
You agree with the general concept of quality shots, but you make them a function of quantity of shots, rather than a specially developed skill (to create them or avoid them). Just one example of where the extra inch can make all the difference in the world.
You also use the absence of star players on several occasions. There, too, it all depends. It's not about star players first, because they can't shine without the foundation of a strong team concept. That's why a team without big stars can go deep. And why teams with stars lose. The ideal situation is obviously a strong team concept plus star players. The team concept come first, and offers a useful focal point because the general public sees star players first. The Coyotes are not spectacular, but they are a very tight team. And those type of teams can present plenty of value. I have no opinion on the series with Nashville, other than that it's too close to call. Would I flip a coin for a +145 return?
Last edited by Dark Horse; 04-27-12 at 04:07 AM.
Every single result is luck. That's simply the definition of the word. Those numbers are also not a model, they are simply a possession metric with strong predictability value for the first round of the playoffs.
Many, many tests have been done, including one that I've done myself, which point strongly (again, within 99+% certainty) that no system can limit or create higher quality of shots within a given quantity of shots; so if you want more quality chances then the best (and almost only reliable) way is to increase the quantity of shots, which is much more of a controllable factor. And vice versa defensively.
This is a sample of every player in the league that I made. Shooting % follows a very normal distribution curve.
Seems I can't post my graph of it, but these are the statistics
Average Shooting %
10.7473846Standard Deviation
2.658431
One of the only players who is shooting at a career SH% above 16 is Tomas Holmstrom, and if you know about this particular player you'll know the reason for this is his average distance of shot. He literally doesn't even shoot the puck, he stands in front of the goalie and tips it or bangs in rebounds. If they miss the net, they don't count as a shot on goal, and if they hit the net they have a very high likelihood of going in.
Another is Steven Stamkos, who (personally I think is riding the high side of variance so far, still only a few seasons worth of data, should regress a little) has an all-world shot, perhaps the best in the game.
The other two that come to mind are S.Kosyn and Alex Tanguay.
All players fall within 3 Z-scores of the mean, even these outliers (again, a sample of 500+ players is expected to have some outliers as well). No player can consistently create better quality of shots, but rather increase their output by increasing the quantity of shots.
Last edited by aznbluff; 04-27-12 at 10:26 AM.
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C'mon boys enough of this stat bashing lol
azn ur on Nasville with me and dark horse u saying Phx?
-175... I can't now!?!?
PHX is +110 tonight at SIA
i will be shocked if they lose tonight
Be ready to be shocked then...
got predators series at -150, feels like a good deal. love how predators don't make stupid mistakes, and always check the puck player into the boards, hard to get a shot from the slot on the predators. i predict predators crush phoenix.
Man on this one I honestly have no idea. My gut tells me NSV but PHX is playing killer. Think my safest bet is to jam out and put 100 points on PHX. Luck fellas
Yes Nasville will SMASH them
+165 at carib for series...
What a game. I don't play totals but this could not have been over 5.5 and that looks shot to hell. Who'd have thought with these two teams? Cheering PHX personally with the Kamloops connection...Cheers
+248 intermission for nash
I would check out the game going to OT odds myself. Have to be at least near 250 and then you really don't care who wins.
this team can't play 3rd periods..
Nashville is the better team. Doesn't mean they will win the series although. More luck in hockey than any other major sport.
Hope somebody with bigger cajones than me took the OT wager. Like I said I'm shocked the under is done-think I said over before. Cheers
Nashville has dominated play since the start of the 3rd period. Hopefully they are rewarded.
Mike Smith is clearly the Coyotes only hope in winning this series.
did you watch the 1st nashville goal? mike smith didn't look so sharp tonight, lucky fisher kept shooting right at him/
Coyotes now -104 to win the series
Phoenix seems like the 49ers of hockey. Seemingly ineffective offense, and thrives off of great D and turnovers. Not a sexy team at all but seems to always come up with the answer.
got nashville at -115, im also going hard on game 2 straight
Defense wins championships
All I can say is chalk one up for the Yotes! Wasn't pretty but none of them have been, I will say haven't been a huge hockey fan but I know if you can't get it past the goalie you don't win, and Smith is doing some amazing things between the pipes. (not so much when he went out of them
well guy's 1 thing for sure the team that win's the series is a better team case closed you don't win 4 game's because your lucky your just better goodnight you better hope that nashville win's the next game if not it's time for nashville to go fishing
2-0 series lead. where are the yotes haters now??
they didnt even pull the goalie with those final dual penalties? Didnt even want to give it a shot, just shows how rigged that was
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what a goal!
