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Sabres -1.5 +332
This will be available all day as Pittsburgh will be in parlays and the majority of straight bets. -1.5 is inherently risky but at +332 it is +EV. Buffalo only has to win the game by 2 goals 3 out of 13 times to break even and I calculated it to be closer to 4 out 13. You are also getting value on +110 ML, but not as much. Of course most of our advantage is the books shading to Pitt as they are a very "talent laden" team vs a small market one. The argument can be made you shouldn't be playing negative pucklines this late in the season as games are close, but that is actually the exact reason you should be, many are playing the positive puck line as a "safety measure" in parlays and straights making the negative puck line more attractive. In this case this is an alternate negative puckline which can be even more advantageous when playing a public team where many will see Pitt -1.5 +232 as the best value (which is isn't, break even for this bet is 3/10).
The best team in the NHL in the second half going against a tired, underachieving Pitt squad. Buffalo also needs these points more as it looks like Pitt cannot catch NYR for #1 (NYR are playing Montreal at home tonight to practically lock that up, and I expect them to win). I would play this game every time, 1 unit bet. GL
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Originally Posted by Sawyer
