So we know that home ice means less in hockey than in basketball and football... but i'd like for some really experienced nhl betters like DG or whoever to chime in on what home ice really means and how much of a statistical advantage we should attach to it. for example if team should be -130 against team on road.. playing at home should make them -150? How much does it really mean? I thought it didn't mean a whole lot...but some clubs like DET (19-2-1 home, 13-13 away) and STL (21-3-3, 8-9-3) have just been LIGHTS OUT at home but only .500 on the road. TB has played well at home but awful on road as well. other teams like ANA and EDM are atrocious on the road but .500 at home. other clubs fare about the same on home at the road.
Is home ice for most clubs a myth? or is the myth of home ice in hockey a myth?
obviously home ice means something. but what im geting at is "how much"? if a team like STL should be -115 on the road, maybe -150 at home? How much do you attach to home ice advantage? im guessing it varies from club to club. but would like some opinion on what kind of price home ice should cost... to avoid laying too much chalk and to avoid being scared of chalk when its a good value.
It's situational. Completely situational. I only consider home ice when 1. the home team actually has a winning record and the away team has an awful away record(I can think of one team that actually has an amazing away record and a mediocre home record) and 2. the two teams playing are around the same level.
I also consider recent trends. For example, NY Rangers are not playing all that well on home ice. I wouldn't consider it an advantage if they were to play a team like Detroit who has a not so great away record but are definitely a good team overall. If I see a situation like Detroit vs NYR(home) I would look at advantages elsewhere other than home though I might still give the edge to Rangers given that Detroit is not nearly as good an away team.
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Home Ice talk.. Detroit...
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