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Toddorts NHL 2011-2012 Season Picks
Alright, time to start my picks for the NHL season. I spent the first month collecting stats and verifying my formulas, and now it's time to get everything going. My formulas are heavily dependent on starting goalies, so you usually won't see me post a pick until after the starting goalies for both teams have been confirmed. That means that sometimes it's very close to game time.
Today's first pick:
Stars @ Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 -125
No time for a write-up. Game's about to start.
Two more picks for the day:
CANUCKS @ Blackhawks ML +120
Canucks @ Blackhawks UNDER 5.5 +105
Canucks @ Blackhawks
The Blackhawks definitely have the advantage in this game. Their offensive stats are slightly better on neutral ice, and they have home ice advantage here that boosts their numbers a bit. But, they don't have enough of an advantage to justify these odds. My formulas give them a 51.7% chance of winning, so with the books giving the Canucks +120, there is just enough value here to make the dog a worthwhile bet. On the total, my model has this going under about 53.2% of the time. Luongo hasn't been doing great so far this season, but he has good long-term stats, and I think the first part of the season is just a fluke. He'll return to good numbers, and Crawford has good numbers both short- and long-term, helping to keep this under 5.5. It's a bit tight on value, but there's enough there at +105 to make it worth a play.
I like the nucks too! GL!
I am on the Blackhawks, Luoungo has been shacky, I am going with that rather than long term numbers, expecially on the raod against a team that can score.
Two picks for the 5pm game:
LIGHTNING @ Panthers PL -1.5 +265
Lightning @ Panthers OVER 5.5 +EV
Lightning @ Panthers
The Lightning have a pretty decent offensive advantage, even after adding the Panthers' home ice advantage to the mix. My model has the Lightning winning outright about 53.2% of the time. But there isn't much value on the ML at any of the books that I use. The value is on the PL (could be the RPL at some books), at -1.5 +265. I'd take the -1.5 PL on the Lightning at anything over +230. On the total, the relatively poor goalies in Garon and Theodore are making this a clear pick on the over. I expect the game to go over about 55.6% of the time. At even money, this is good value.
And my final two picks for the day:
JETS @ Rangers ML +160
Jets @ Rangers OVER 5.5 +130
Jets @ Rangers
This should be a pretty close game. The Jets really aren't getting enough credit with these odds. Sure, they are legitimate dogs, with my formulas showing the Rangers winning about 51.3% of the time, but +160? Craziness. Not justified at all. There is lots of value on the Jets ML. There is also some value on the total, although it's not a whole lot. I really only see the over hitting if the Rangers win, as Pavelec is the real reason for there being value on the over here. He's been seriously underperforming this season at 89% saves. So, if the ML bet hits, this is one is unlikely, but if the ML doesn't hit, this one looks good. Since both are offering plus money, that's a good reason to take both of them.
Well, not a great first day. But that happens, especially when betting so many dogs. Some days betting dogs turn out incredible, some turn out lackluster, like today. Long season ahead. Today's record was 2-5, -2.8 units.
Record:
2-5
28.57%
-2.8 units
Only two NHL games today, so not a whole lot of betting opportunities, unfortunately. Here's my first play of the day (and maybe the only one):
ISLANDERS @ Bruins ML +165
Islanders @ Bruins
Nabokov is in the net today for the Islanders, and I like his numbers both on the season and for his career. Rask is in the net for the Bruins, and he has great career numbers, but his start of the season hasn't been spectacular. The Bruins do have home ice advantage, of course, which is what gives them a slight edge in this game, which I otherwise think is about evenly matched. Everyone always overly inflates the expectations of the defending league champions, but the Bruins certainly haven't been lighting up the ice this season. I see both teams scoring between 2-3 goals. With so much plus money offered on the Islanders, this is an easy call. I found +165 at Bookmaker, but just about everyone else is offering +160, which is still plenty of value. On the total, I'm not seeing any value. Like I said, I expect between 2-3 goals from both sides, so the total at 5 is close to a toss-up. My numbers give it a 55.5% chance of going over, but every book is offering the over at -130 or worse, so there isn't any value to be had. I pass.
Well, the Sharks confirmed Niemi as their goalie for tonight, so that lets me make one more play for the day:
Kings @ SHARKS PL -1.5 +220
Kings @ Sharks
Neither of the moneylines are offering value in this game, unfortunately. My model has the Sharks as pretty strong favorites, but not strong enough to lay the -140 that the books are looking for. There isn't any value on the Kings, either, as I would need to see at least +140 to take look at them on the ML. The numbers my model turns out shows the Sharks scoring between 3-4 goals, and the Kings 2-3. I'm showing a roughly 33% chance that the Sharks win by at least 2 goals, which puts some value on the PL at +220. It's not huge value, but it's enough to make it worthwhile. On the total, with both Quick and Niemi starting in the nets, I can't see any value on the over or under. The line set at 5 is pretty close to accurate, and the odds on either side aren't favorable enough to make it a smart bet. Another pass on the total.
Always nice to have a good day after a bad day like yesterday. Today's record was 1-1, +1.2 units.
Record:
3-6
33.33%
-1.6 units
Alright, let's get started for the day. Lots of starting goalies already confirmed for tonight, so I've got plenty of plays.
STARS @ Capitals ML +140
Stars @ Capitals UNDER 5.5 -110
JETS @ Sabres ML +185
Oilers @ CANADIENS ML -140
AVALANCHE @ Red Wings ML +150
Avalanche @ Red Wings UNDER 5.5 +EV
BLACKHAWKS @ Blues PL -1.5 +265
Blackhawks @ Blues Under 5.5 -120
Stars @ Capitals
This game is absolutely evenly matched. The Blackhawks are 10-3, while the Caps are 9-3. Both teams have basically even offensive capabilities, and both teams have good goalies starting in Lehtonen and Neuvirth. The only reason to give the Caps even a slight advantage is the home ice, and it's nowhere near enough to justify the +140 that the Stars are getting in this game. Easy decision to take the ML on the Stars. My model has them winning about 49% of the time. On the total, there is lots of value here on the under. I would take it at anything better than -135, and the books are offering -110 or -115, depending on where you're shopping.
Jets @ Sabres
Some people are thinking I'm crazy for taking the Jets over the Sabres. And maybe I am.But this play is all about value. Yes, the Sabres are likely to win this one. But likely enough to justify these odds? Absolutely not. The Jets will pull an upset out of their pocket enough times to make this a profitable play at +185. This is hockey, not basketball, and rarely are odds as high as +185 justifiable in the NHL. On the total, there's no value here. My formulas show the posted line as being about right.
Oilers @ Canadiens
You don't see me picking too many favorites on moneylines, because rarely is there value to be found, with everyone and their brother always piling money on the favorite's ML. But every now and then, a favorite comes along that just isn't getting enough credit for how strong they are. That's the case here. People are giving the Oilers too much credit after a 6-game win streak. You'll hear me say it again and again, don't bet based on streaks. I know it's popular around here to chase streaks, but it's a money loser long-term. If the underlying stats don't support the streak, then it's likely nothing but a statistical anomaly. I see that being the case here. My model has the Canadiens winning this game about 2 out of every 3 matchups. The -140 juice is absolutely justifiable. On the total, not so much value to be found. If I could find someone offering an under 5.5 line, then it might be worth looking at, but with the line set at 5, it's too close to call. Could go either way.
Avalanche @ Red Wings
Ok, back to my usual picking of dogs.
Blackhawks @ Blues
In this game, I'm going to have to go with the PL on the Blackhawks. Even with home ice advantage for the Blues, I see them struggling against the strong offense of Chicago. Halak is pretty good, but my model gives the Hawks a 32.3% chance of getting enough goals by him to win by at least 2. That's enough to make +265 odds profitable. Because of the strength of the goalies in this game, I'm seeing a low scoring game. Maybe something like 2-0, or 3-1. The -120 odds on the under are worth laying, although it's not a huge amount of value. You could see a score here of something like 4-2, but it won't happen enough times to kill the profitability of this play.
Good picks...kind of liking the Blues though. Very strong at home and playing under new coach Hitchcock. GL with the plays and thanks for sharing your thoughts.
It'll be interesting to see how they improve under Hitchcock. He's got a great record, and a history for building teams. I imagine that it will take a bit of time for them to adjust to his style, though. I'll be watching their stats closely over the next few weeks to see if there's a sizable shift.
Last minute play for tonight. Lindback has just been confirmed for the Predators, and that makes them a play for me.
PREDATORS @ Kings ML +110
Predators @ Kings
I don't know why the Predators are dogs in this game. My model has the line at -109 for them. The big difference is Bernier, who isn't exactly a great goalie to begin with, but has been absolutely horrendous the beginning of this season, giving up 15% of the shots against him. That's bad even for him. I like Lindback, on the other hand. He doesn't have a huge number of starts under his belt, but he's done well when he has started, and I've got enough statistical data on him to make it determinant. On the total, I've got no play. Because of Bernier, I think this could go over, but it's just too close a call. If there was plus money on either the over or under, then it might be worth a look, but not at -110 on both sides.
Wow. Absolutely slaughtered tonight. Hopefully tomorrow is a much better day. Today's record was 2-7, -4.77 units.
Record:
5-13
27.78%
-6.37 units
Time for today's first play:
Rangers @ Senators UNDER 5.5 -130
Rangers @ Senators
The only play I can see on this game is on the total. We have two good goalies in Anderson and Lundqvist. Anderson hasn't been at the top of his game for the first month of the season, but his long-term stats are good, and I'm sure he'll return to norm. Lundqvist has been doing great this season, and also has good long-term numbers. Neither of the offenses are particularly strong against good goalies. My formulas have the game going under about 61% of the time, making the true under line -156. I found a -130 at Bookmaker, but even -135 wouldn't be a bad play. On sides, I'm not seeing either side with value, either on the ML or PL. The lines seem to be about right to me. I pass.
Goalies were just confirmed for the Preds/Ducks game, so time for the next pick:
Predators @ Ducks UNDER 5 +115
Predators @ Ducks
Another game where I don't see value on sides, but there is value on the total. Even with the O/U set at 5, I really see value on the under. Thanks to good goalies in both nets, there's a decent chance that this one finishes at 4 goals or less. Hiller has been average so far this year at 90% saves, but his long-term numbers are excellent at 92%. Rinne has been superb this season, only letting 29 goals past him on over 400 shots. His long-term saves are also over 92%. Even if Hiller has a bad night, Rinne could easily keep it under 5 himself. I've got it at +115, but I'd take it at +110 if that's all you can find.
Final plays for the night:
Flyers @ Lightning OVER 6 -120
FLYERS @ Lightning PL -1.5 +235
Flyers @ Lightning
Different books are offering much different lines on this game, so I searched around for the lines with the best value. There are multiple options with value, though, so shopping is worthwhile. What I liked on sides was the PL I found at Bookmaker on the Flyers at -1.5 +235. My model puts the real line at +196, so there is plenty of value here. The Flyers are playing good hockey this year, and Bryzgalov is a strong goalie, even though his beginning of the season stats might make him look average. The last two season he was 92% on saves, and I'm sure he'll return to those numbers throughout the season. Roloson, on the other hand, is average at best. He's under 90% for the year, and under 91% for his career. The Flyers' stats show that they tear up average goalies. I expect about 4 goals for the Flyers. On the total, again, there are multiple options at different books. I found the lines with the total set at 6 to have the best value, with a -120 available at Bodog. My formulas have this game going over 6 about 58% of the time. At those numbers, I wouldn't take it at -125, but -120 is enough value to make it a profitable wager over time.
Well, another crappy day. Record for the night was 1-3, -2.23 units.
Record:
6-16
27.27%
-8.6 units
Not many goalies confirmed yet for today, so only starting out with one play:
BLACKHAWKS @ Blue Jackets ML -155
Blackhawks @ Blue Jackets
This is about as close to a sure thing as a hockey game can get. The Blue Jackets are putting Mason in the net, who is just about one of the worst goalies in the league. This season, 13% of all shots have gotten past him, and for his career, it's nearly 10%. The Blackhawks are consistently near the top of the league in shots on goal, so that spells trouble for Mason. Combine that with Columbus's poor offense, especially with a goalie like Crawford in the net for the Hawks, and I can see this one going 4-2 easily. I wish better odds were being offered on the PL, but it seems that everyone has figured out how this is likely to go, and money has loaded up on the Hawks PL, pushing the line to no value. There's still plenty of value on the ML, though, even having to lay -155. I would go as far as -190 on this matchup. The total is a different story, though. This could go either way, and no one is offering plus money on either side of the O/U. Pass.
More confirmed goalies, and more picks:
Maple Leafs @ BLUES ML -160
Maple Leafs @ Blues OVER 5.5 +EV
PANTHERS @ Jets PL -1.5 +260
Panthers @ Jets UNDER 5.5 -120
ISLANDERS @ Avalanche ML +115
Islanders @ Avalanche UNDER 5.5 -105
WILD @ Sharks ML +160
Wild @ Sharks UNDER 5 +115
Maple Leafs @ Blues
I'm actually picking two moneyline favorites today, which is a bit unusual for my style. But where there's value, there's value. The first favorite is the Blues. This is largely based on newbie goalie Scrivens, who so far hasn't performed well in the little bit of time he's spent in the net. He's had 8 goals against him on only 60 shots. Granted, that's not a whole lot of data, but combined with home ice advantage, and new coaching, I think it's enough to justify a play on the Blues. On the total, again because of Scrivens, I think the over is the best play. My model has this going over about 62.8% of the time. Good value at +EV.
Panthers @ Jets
I can't find any value on the ML in this game. Not with the odds being offered. On the PL, though, there is a small amount of value being offered at some books. The -1.5 PL on the Panthers is being offered at +260 at Heritage. My model has the Panthers winning by at least 2 goals about 28.8% of the time. Not a ton of value, but enough for a play. On the total, the value is on the under. Even with two average goalies, the abysmal offenses of both the Panthers and the Jets don't figure to do too well. I see this staying under about 59.5% of the time.
Islanders @ Avalanche
My first dog for the day. I see this game as almost a toss-up, but I give the Islanders a slight advantage, even on Colorado's ice. Both Goalies are solid, but the offensive stats for the Islanders are a bit better. Most books aren't offering a good enough line to make either side profitable, but Bookmaker is offering the Islanders at +115, which is pretty good value. On the total, this is another under. Like I said, two good goalies in Montoya and Giguere, and I don't see either offense breaking out and scoring much. A score of 3-2 is likely, maybe 2-1.
Wild @ Sharks
Yes, the Sharks are certainly the likely winner here. But likely enough to be -180 favorites? Hell no. The Wild figures to win this one just a touch over 40.5% of the time, making +160 odds profitable. On the total, I'm very comfortable with the under, even at 5. Backstrom, always a good goalie, is in top form so far this year with a 92.6% save percentage. Niemi hasn't been his usual self so far at 89.8%, but his long-term numbers are strong. I'd take the under at anything plus money.
Last edited by toddorts; 11-10-11 at 02:56 PM.
Alright, final two bets for the night. I wish I could have gotten the Bruins, but I wasn't near a computer when they confirmed Rask to start. Missed a good opportunity, because that's almost a sure thing. Oh well. Still have two plays before I head to work:
CANADIENS @ Coyotes ML +125
Canadiens @ Coyotes UNDER 5 +125
Canadiens @ Coyotes
Have to run out the door in a minute, so no time for a big write-up. Basically, this game is evenly matched, and I'd take either of them at +125. The Canadiens are getting it tonight, so I'm on them. The under is a closer call, but I still think there's a bit of value at +125.
Well, not a winning night, but at least it wasn't the slaughter that I took the last few days. Basically a break even night. Record was 4-6-1, -0.36 units.
Record:
10-22-1
31.25%
-8.96 units
Time for today's first group of picks. The goalies aren't confirmed in the two late games, so not sure if I'll get those finished before I have to head out to work, but I'll be keeping an eye on Left Wing Lock to see when they're confirmed. Today's picks:
CAPITALS @ Devils PL -1.5 +225
Capitals @ Devils UNDER 5.5 -140
HURRICANES @ Rangers ML +135
STARS @ Penguins ML +125
Senators @ SABRES ML -180
Oilers @ RED WINGS ML -165
Capitals @ Devils
Couldn't find any value on this one on the moneyline, but there is a bit of value on the PL for the Caps. My formulas give the Caps about a 31.9% chance of winning by at least 2 goals. Not a ton of value, but enough. On the total, we've got two good goalies that are creating value on the under. Brodeur hasn't had the best season so far, but it hasn't been bad either, and his long-term numbers are good, of course. Vokoun has been true to form for the first part of the season. Neither of these teams lights up the ice against good goalies, so I give it a 63% chance of going under.
Hurricanes @ Rangers
The value here is on the dog. Yes, the Rangers definitely deserve to be the favorite, but it's only because Lundqvist is superior to Ward. If Lundqvist has a bad night, or Ward a good night, then this one easily swings the other way, and that will happen enough times to make +135 favorable odds. No value on the total on this one, though.
Stars @ Penguins
Good value on the Stars in this game. I see this one as evenly matched with Fleury in the net, who isn't my favorite goalie. He's had a good season, but I don't see him keeping it up for the long haul. Lehtonen, on the other hand, is on fire this year, and he's a long-term strong goalie. The Penguins get the home ice advantage, but it's not enough to make these odds justified. I'd take the Stars at +110 or better. Once again, no value on the total.
Senators @ Sabres
My first favorite of the night on the ML. I see the Sabres as really strong favorites on this one. Their offense has been on fire, even against good goalies, which Anderson is. My formulas give the Sabres 3-4 goals, while limiting the Senators to 2. I wish better odds were offered on the PL, but no such luck. The value here is on the ML at -180. I wouldn't go further than -180, though. Once again, no value on the total.
Oilers @ Red Wings
Another moneyline favorite for the night. It's rare that I see this much value on a favorite. The key is Khabibulin in the Oilers' net. He's had a great season so far, but it belies the truth in his long-term numbers. This guy was 89% on the saves last year. The 2008 season was the last time he had a season that I would consider good. Again, I see the favorite getting 3-4 goals, with the dog being limited to 2 against Howard. Still no value on the total in this game, either. Not much value tonight on totals.
The Blackhawks confirmed backup goalie Emery, which gives me a couple of plays:
FLAMES @ Blackhawks ML +140
Flames @ Blackhawks OVER 5.5 +EV
Flames @ Blackhawks
Normally I would give the Hawks the clear advantage in this game, but with them using backup goalie Ray Emery, it's a different story. He's had 10 goals against him this year on 91 shots on goal, and his career numbers aren't much better. The Flames have been strong against average goalies, and I could see them getting 4 goals this game, maybe more. On the total, because of Emery, I think the over is a pretty safe play, especially at even money. In fact, I'd take it even at -140.
Another break even day. Record was 4-4, +0.13 units.
Record:
14-26-1
35%
-8.83 units
Don't have time for write-ups tonight, as I have to go in to work earlier than usual, but here are my picks:
Jets @ BLUE JACKETS PL -1.5 +240
Jets @ Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 +105
Penguins @ Hurricanes OVER 5.5 +125
STARS @ Red Wings ML +160
SENATORS @ Maple Leafs ML +135
Senators @ Maple Leafs UNDER 5.5 +EV
Penguins @ HURRICANES ML +115
Lightning @ Blues OVER 5.5 +110
WILD @ Kings ML +145
Wild @ Kings UNDER 5 -115
Another losing night. Hockey can certainly be frustrating at times. Record for the night was 4-6, -1.2 units.
Record:
18-32-1
36%
-10.03 units
Last minute play on the Flyers:
FLYERS @ Panthers ML -125
Ok, now that I have some time, some more picks, with write-ups this time:
Oilers @ BLACKHAWKS ML -180
Oilers @ Blackhawks OVER 5.5 +115
ISLANDERS @ Canucks ML +170
Oilers @ Blackhawks
Easy, easy choice. Khabibulin is getting too much credit as the Oilers' goalie. He's having a great season, but his stats will regress to his long-term average, which isn't good. Crawford will be just fine, though, and the Blackhawks have excellent offensive capabilities. With these two goalies on this matchup, I would take the Hawks on just about any odds. This is as close to a "lock" as actually exists in the real world. On the total, not quite such a sure thing, but definitely good value, nonetheless. I see the Hawks getting 4 just by themselves, and the Oilers will probably manage to score 2, maybe 3 if they're really lucky. I'd take the over with any plus money, so +115 is pretty good.
Islanders @ Canucks
I really don't understand why the Islanders are such heavy dogs on this moneyline. The numbers don't support it. The Canucks do have a slight advantage, but it really is slight. Nothing to justify +170 on the Islanders. Great value. No value on the total, though. The posted total is just about right.
Hiller was just confirmed for the Ducks, so two final picks for the day:
WILD @ Ducks ML +135
Wild @ Ducks UNDER 5 +105
Wild @ Ducks
The Ducks do deserve to be the favorites here, not only for the home ice advantage, but also for offensive stats. But they don't deserve the odds that they're getting here. The Wild stand about a 46.7% chance of winning, so +135 odds have value. Even +130 would be worth a play. On the total, I'm going on the under here, based largely on the strength of both goalies. My model gives this game a 56% chance of staying under 5.
Finally, a winning day! It was about damned time. Record for the day was 4-1-1, +2.86 units.
Record:
22-33-2
40%
-7.17 units
Last edited by toddorts; 11-13-11 at 11:39 PM. Reason: Forgot the Wild/Ducks plays
Let's see if I can get two winning days in a row. My first picks for the night:
FLYERS @ Hurricanes ML -120
SABRES @ Canadiens PL -1.5 +240
Flyers @ Hurricanes
I see the Flyers as being much stronger favorites than the odds would imply here. Maybe people are giving too much credit for home ice advantage for the Canes, or maybe people don't think enough of Bobrovsky in the Flyers' net, but whatever it is, I think there's a lot of value on the Flyers here as favorites. My model gives them a 67% chance of a victory, and I don't see a number that high very often in hockey. Granted, there isn't a whole lot of data on Bobrovsky, and that could be toying with the formulas a bit, but I think there's enough data to make it a smart play. On the total, I see the posted line as being pretty sharp. In fact, it's exactly what my formulas come up with. No play there.
Sabres @ Canadiens
Oh, how I'm loving the puckline on this game! I see tons of value here. While the ML has just a bit of value, the PL has a bunch. If you're just looking for an easy win, then betting the ML on the Sabres is relatively safe, at about a 60% chance of success. But if you're like me, looking for long-term value, then the play is clearly on the PL. My model gives the Sabres about a 33% chance of winning this game by at least 2 goals, which means the PL should really be at only +200 (less if you include the vig). Instead, everyone has the line set at +240. Really easy choice. Unfortunately, I once again see no value on the total. I see the over as the most likely outcome, but it's not worth a play at these odds. I'd need to see about -115, and no one is offering better than -125 right now. Pass.
Mixed night. Record was 1-1, -0.17 units.
Record:
23-34-2
40.35%
-7.34 units
Not many goalies confirmed yet for tonight, but I do have a few picks ready:
Rangers @ ISLANDERS ML +110
Rangers @ Islanders UNDER 5 +120
RED WINGS @ Blues PL -1.5 +250
Panthers @ STARS PL -1.5 +225
Rangers @ Islanders
This one is close, but my formulas show that the Islanders should be the favorite here. It's almost a toss-up, but just a slight advantage for the Islanders, and they're getting plus money, which makes it worthwhile. I wouldn't take it at anything less than +110, though. On the total, just like on sides, this one could easily go either way. So, once again, the plus money is the smart play, especially at +120.
Red Wings @ Blues
The Wings would have the advantage over the Blues with just about anyone in the Blues' net, but with an average goalie like Elliott, they have a significant advantage. Yes, I know that Elliott has been having a good year, but the guy was 89% last year on 1,500 shots. His streak isn't going to continue. This one could easily go 4-2 Wings. I give it a 34.5% chance, and they're paying +250 at most books. Easy call. Nothing on the total in this game.
Panthers @ Stars
This is another puckline value, although there's not quite as much value on this one. Clemmensen is justing starting for the year for the Panthers, and he has an average history. Lehtonen, on the other hand, is one of my favorite goalies, and he's having a great year so far. The Stars offense is far superior to the Panthers, as well. A 3-1 or 4-2 score here, maybe even 3-0, are real possibilities. At +225, it's worth a play on the Stars' puckline. Again, no value on the total.
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