[Cicima6709]

Went 3-0 on dogs yesterday, and i see a lot of value today. Majority of the plays are dogs, but im liking a few favorites too. Based on 5dimes lines...

EDM +157
NAS +100
PIT +125
VAN -135
CAL +170

Those 5 i locked in a bit earlier today.

I am also going to play...

NYR -125
PHI -150
WPG +125

...However, i am waiting because i think i could possibly get a better line a little later. If the lines start moving against me, i will take the team. PHI/NYR has been dropping a lot recently, so im hopeful it keeps going. Im also hoping that the Isles get some action and i can get a better line on the Jets today. We'll see, but im pretty happy with their prices now. Just hoping to maybe add a few more points to the line here and there.

Also, i know a lot of people here play regulation bets. IMO, they are absolutely not worth it...maybe once in a while if you pick your spots right, but i wouldnt constantly use regulation bets. You have to hit something like 60% long term just to break even on regulation bets. And you have to hit a lot higher for them to have a profit. Here is an example: Lets say you hit 53% and go 53-47 over 100 bets, at -110 odds. You'd come out with about a unit or two of profit. About 25%, recently 30%, of NHL games go to overtime. Lets say 25%. Assuming half the games that go to overtime, the team you bet on wins, thus you lose the regulation bet, but win the str8 up bet. That is 12.5 games, rounding up to 13. So 13 times over 100 games, you lose a regulation bet that would have otherwise won. So your record of 53-47 at -110 is now 40-60 at +150, the regulation line. At those odds, you break even, where as you would have won a few units betting moneyline. Thats why i dont think regulation bets are worth it at all. Yes, sometimes its nice to save some juice, but the juice you are saving isnt worth the 2 unit swing you get when your team goes to OT and wins. These numbers become much worse if a couple more games go to OT, or if your team wins in OT a few more times (which it probably would if you take more favorites). Regulation bets simply arent worth betting often, unless you are really picking your spots carefully.

[TGMILL04]

I'm on your plays again today. Nice work yesterday and good luck today.

[Cicima6709]

Nice, good luck!

I took the Jets at +130. Flyers are -148 right now and Rangers are -125. Ill wait a bit to see if they drop more, but ill probably end up taking those lines.

Hoping for another good day!

[TGMILL04]

If you had to pick two dogs to play, which two do you feel most confident about?

[Cicima6709]

oilers and predators...

...but i flat bet all my bets, 1 unit on everything

[TomJSports]

got oilers, wings, and flames at those odds too. Like those a lot.

[bruins35]

jets and ducks are my plays tonight

[Merella]

I like the ducks tonight vs the "soft" rangers

[CanuckG]

Something isn't right about the Oilers line....why is it to high?

[DHK]

Something isn't right about the Oilers line....why is it to high?

It's right, kings are a very good team this year

[CanuckG]

It's right, kings are a very good team this year

So are the Oilers but I think people who will be betting on them tonight haven't realized that this is their first real road test and Tom Renney won't be able to match up his lines and play to their strengths. Still for a team that is 7-2-2 to be getting this price seems like a "steal".

[broadway6]

Cici- why do you use 5 dimes and not pinnacle?

[Cicima6709]

Cici- why do you use 5 dimes and not pinnacle?

From USA.


Evening started off so well, all 5 of the 7pm games had the team holding onto a lead. PHI blowing that late lead, then losing in a shootout really hurt, had them -150.

Looks like 3-1 so far, though Canucks will probably lose and make it 3-2.

[broadway6]

i'm from USA too, but i watch the pinny lines.

its a shame we didn't bet Calgary

11/03 10:21 AM +162 -176
11/03 09:46 AM +170 -185
11/03 03:53 AM +171 -186
11/02 11:02 PM +176 -192
11/02 03:19 PM +179 -195

[RAVENSFAN]

i'm from USA too, but i watch the pinny lines.

its a shame YOU didn't bet Calgary

11/03 10:21 AM +162 -176
11/03 09:46 AM +170 -185
11/03 03:53 AM +171 -186
11/02 11:02 PM +176 -192
11/02 03:19 PM +179 -195

Cal +170 equals flames....

[Cicima6709]

Went 3-0 on dogs yesterday, and i see a lot of value today. Majority of the plays are dogs, but im liking a few favorites too. Based on 5dimes lines...

EDM +157
NAS +100
PIT +125
VAN -135
CAL +170
NYR -123
PHI -150
WPG +130

I edited this post with the lines i ended up getting on the games i waited...

Shitty two lose on two favorites, considering im mostly a dogs bettor. Feels like i lost at my own game.

Anyways, 3-2 +1.15 units so far. Hopefully night games go well and it ends up a decent day.

[Cicima6709]

i'm from USA too, but i watch the pinny lines.

its a shame we didn't bet Calgary

11/03 10:21 AM +162 -176
11/03 09:46 AM +170 -185
11/03 03:53 AM +171 -186
11/02 11:02 PM +176 -192
11/02 03:19 PM +179 -195

I track the Pinny lines, but i bet the 5dimes lines.

And i did bet Calgary...+170. I guess i coulda written CGY instead of CAL, sorry for the confusion.

[Cicima6709]

Pretty crazy, in all 8 games today, the team i bet on scored first.

[RAVENSFAN]

Hey man do u have a season thread or just a daily thread each day for people to look out for?

[Cicima6709]

Hey man do u have a season thread or just a daily thread each day for people to look out for?

I'v usually just been posting my picks occasionally when i really like them in random threads, and i got some PMs asking me to start posting more often. Really liked the games the last couple days, so i posted. Im up 19 units over the past two weeks, but most of those are un-documented. You could look at back at line movement though, to see where im getting those wins from.

I guess i can start a season long thread...just not a big fan of how after 1 bad day, all the haters come out. Seems people expect wins %100 of the time, and arent patient enough to realize that if you can hit 55-60%, thats pretty damn great. But that also means that 4.5 of every 10 bets loses.

[TGMILL04]

Wanted to drop in and say thanks for the picks. Great job man. I understand your reluctance to start a thread and I don't blame you.

[Cicima6709]

Hopefully you guys all beat the books today.

Gotta admit, this was one of the shittier good days that iv had. 5-3 is always nice, finishing for 2.72 units. Just feels like it should have been a lot more. My hometown Penguins ****** me today, kinda blows. They shoulda won the game. Pretty shitty to lose two games on late 3rd period comebacks, especially one where you were up 3-1.

Oh well, 2.72 units is always nice, just sucks being so close to a 7-1 type of day.

[TomJSports]

Pens burned me too. Haven't won in the Tank since '97. With the way they started, should've been it.

[broadway6]

I track the Pinny lines, but i bet the 5dimes lines.

And i did bet Calgary...+170. I guess i coulda written CGY instead of CAL, sorry for the confusion.

yeah i'm an idiot. i meant to say shame I didn't bet Calgary.

[somethingelse]

Interesting movement on the Montreal/Ottawa matchup. Montreal now -120 favorite (opened as +115) yet trends show 79% of bettors on Ottawa for the moneyline.

[Cicima6709]

Interesting movement on the Montreal/Ottawa matchup. Montreal now -120 favorite (opened as +115) yet trends show 79% of bettors on Ottawa for the moneyline.

Yup, i created a thread for todays picks.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/hockey-bet...ht-hockey.html

I def. like the Canadiens today.

I guess maybe it would easier if i posted all my plays in the same thread.