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What is the point of +1.5
They always end up getting screwed by empty net goals, (ie Carolina @ Boston today)
Does anyone have odds on this? If its a 1 goal game with less than 5 minutes to go in the game, what are the odds an empty net goal is scored?
I keep getting screwed by this.
you shouldn't take the +1.5 when an average team is playing a powerhouse ... that carolina +1.5 was priced at -175 today ... the best strategy is to parlay two +1.5 dogs that you think have a chance of winning straight up ... eg, today columbus +1.5 and chicago +1.5 ...
Overtime is doesnt mean anything, just take +0.5, +1.5 is a total sucker bet, I dont see how it is any better than +0.5
If the +1.5 team is winning late in the game (say by 1 goal) and the -1.5 team scores to tie it up with about 3 mins left, the +1.5 and the +0.5 have the same chance of winning.
Teams generally shut it down that late in the game if its tied, to guarantee points, and even if the -1.5 team scores a late goal to go up by 1, the +1.5 team will pull the goalie and the chance of an empty net is very high...
+0.5 pays WAY better than +1.5 and the odds of it hitting are essentially the same.
Empty net goals also screw unders all the time.
Also if the +1.5 is down by 1 goal late, you have to worry about the empty netter screwing you, but if you have +0.5 you wont care about it, your team still has to score.
I hate the feeling of getting screwed by a pointless goal...
Right, an empty netter will screw you. I lucked out b/c I had the game at over 5.5 so the empty netter helped.Originally Posted by unit1884
Odds are if a team loses by 1, it is in OT. I will not play a +1.5 because the odds always suck. If I pick a dog, it's on the ML. Chicago might be a good ML pick tonight.
The great thing about +1.5 is if your team scores first, you have a very nice cushion, because the favourite must now score three goals in a row to beat you.
I use +1.5 bets in parlays.
Ya, carolina scored first and still got screwed
In point of fact of the 4,163 NHL games from the 2005/6 season through Dec. 19 of the 2008/9 season, if a team lost by 1 goal there was only a 49.05% probability it occurred in OT.
So over that data set 1-goal margins of victory are actually slightly more common in reg time than in OT.
I will point out. however, that the difference in conditional probabilities is well within the margin of error.
Empty netter in detroit saves me again.
Empty netter in detroit saves me again.me too - it's like the Wings were playing with them!
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