While I may be a "technical gambler", my knowledge of statistics and math is very limited IMO.
While all a bookie needs to know maybe that 11 is bigger than ten, all I want to know is that I am going to get +120 or better on a game/bet I think is even money. Not a rocket scientist approach, but it keeps me going.
Here is the case in point. Game is Carolina/Philly preseason NFL. Philly -3.5. I am going to bet Carolina in the first half.
1) I have a database of preseason games. I have 302 games where the home favorite is -3, -3.5 or -4.
2) In these 302 games, the HF wins 152, loses 114 and there are 36 ties.
3) With -2.5 at the half, the favorite wins 143 and loses 159, so I like my +120 with +2.5.
4) But 18 games fall on the "3", which is to say that I could give up my plus +120 for +100 and "save" 18 bets out of 302.
5) The current Half time line is +2.5/+120 or +3/+100, or +164 for the dog to win outright.
I am going for the +2.5/+120 since it is easy to see my edge, which is +120 on essentially an even bet (based on my data).
Thoughts on how to think about this? I just seem to get confused....