1. 01-13-11 12:53 PM #1
    smartbets
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    Prop betting market

    Anybody think it is wierd that the SBR Poisson Calculator has been down for awhile, and now almost all the online books don't offer any basketball props except props with a "points scored" choice factored into them? Coincidently poisson doesnt work well if there is a points scored factor involved in the prop(for basketball)?
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  2. 01-13-11 01:05 PM #2
    xyz
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    I see plenty of props on 5dimes, including ones where the Poisson distribution applies. Where do you play your props?
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  3. 01-13-11 01:10 PM #3
    smartbets
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    xyz,

    5dimes was one of the books I was referring too. I don't currently see a single nba prop bet on 5dimes that deosnt have a "points scored" factor involved with it.

    Do you?
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  4. 01-13-11 05:03 PM #4
    JustinBieber
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    There are other poisson calculators available on the internet.
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  5. 01-13-11 05:14 PM #5
    cubsker
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    not to mention justin7 posted a spreadsheet that's better than the calculator.
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  6. 01-13-11 06:12 PM #6
    rm18
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    I don't think you can really use a formula just got to use common sense on these things
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  7. 01-13-11 06:56 PM #7
    smartbets
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    My point wasnt really about not having a poisson calculator to use, as I know how to use the excel function for poisson and also have justin7's spreadsheet.

    My point was that I cant seem to find nearly as many basketball props that fit the criteria for using poisson to figure out anymore, and the timing of this coincides with the poisson calculator not being available on the sbr site.

    I am curious as to why the books i used before for basketball props dont offer the poisson eligible props anymore...
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  8. 01-13-11 07:08 PM #8
    sharpcat
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    Justin7's basic introduction to betting prop's using the poisson distribution must have had a major effect on the market
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  9. 01-13-11 07:30 PM #9
    smartbets
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    sharp,

    could be, but doesnt this happen every 5 years or so? didnt stanford wongs book say similar things, then king yao's book did too, and fezzik was holding seminars in vegas teaching people how to beat props through the years i have heard

    seems like when people get bigger then the limits books offer on props, they start teaching others who have much smaller bankrolls(like myself) how to do it(which i am very appreciative of)

    but like you said, maybe the books are losing money on prop bets now because of it

    i havent seen a single prop bet for the nba on 5dimes or the greek that didnt have "points scored" factored into it in weeks - used to always see some fro rebounds, assists, free throws, etc. - now, they all have points scored tied in with them...
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  10. 01-13-11 08:04 PM #10
    Peregrine Stoop
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    sigh... the poisson is hardly ever the right distribution to use. You'll only hurt yourself misapplying it.
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  11. 01-14-11 04:12 AM #11
    subs
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    what should we use PS?
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  12. 01-18-11 02:28 PM #12
    Bluehorseshoe
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    I'd like to know also Peregrine Stoop.
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