[SparJMU]

I am brand new is handicapping prop bets using the Poisson calculator, and I was hoping to get some feedback from those with experience handicapping props. I guess the most important question is whether or not my methods are correct. I understand that tonight may be more difficult considering the change of QB for Minnesota and the odd venue, so there may be further work necessary.

For tonight's Bears-Vikings games, I am attempting to handicap the number of sacks.

Bears average 2.15, Vikings allow 2.08, divided by league average gives the Bears 2.02 sacks tonight.
Vikings average 1.77, bears allow 3.62, divided by league average gives the Vikings 2.89 sacks tonight.
Game total averages 4.92.

Using a Poisson calculator I determine that it is a 45.4% likelihood that sacks go UNDER 4.5. And a 54.6% chance that sacks go OVER 4.5.

Therefore using an odds converter, I determine a fair line of +/- 120 on the total of 4.5. If I can bet UNDER 4.5 at +130 on a sportsbook I have a +EV bet.

1) Feedback on my method?
2) Any thoughts on the actual bet? The Vikings are starting a WR at the Qb position tonight, which makes it a lot harder to rely on these numbers alone.

[jgilmartin]

That is how I would do the math. As you mentioned, the injury situation makes it a little bit sketchy, in this particular case, though.

[TomG]

Justin7 would be proud.

[SparJMU]

Interestingly enough, the prop is no longer posted on the site I was looking at, and the line is Under 4.5 -125 on a different site.

[Poogs]

How do you guys think the snow will effect sacks? And for that matter, fgs and punts?