False, you always talked about differences in assessing EV, the part that exists in both types of betting. Here you started talking about variances, the subject what has never been brought up in this way, and, unlike EV, addressing variance is neither common nor comparable issue. In fact, it is NOT an issue in sports betting due to fixed odds betting.
I got it, you are good, I am bad, your shit don't stink, I am not too good to even realize this.
It could be funny when an ignorant troll fails like in example a few messages above, it is rather sad when a good poster fails and starts talking exclusively about personalities and their stories.
Here are a few points on
the subject matter which is variance and Kelly:
1) the OP question is clearly about sports betting, you bring up an issue irrelevant to sports betting
2) where variance is an issue (BJ, finance), any assumptions about variance are not within Kelly theory but rather are the shortcuts on the bettor's part, the bettor can use any approach to assessing variance while staying within Kelly framework
3) the issues with variance (where exist) are not an argument
against using Kelly because the errors caused by mistakes in assessing variance are of much lesser significance comparing to the errors caused by mistakes in assessing the means.