[BJ1945]

Example: shooting percentage, turnovers, win rate.

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

What-music-the-star-was-listening-too.
Who-has-the-most-beard-growth.
Dollar-drink-night---y/n.

[shock11]

back to back, home court, talent

[Vegas_bond]

I dont consider any of those factors. And I dont try to outsmart the oddsmakers. No way, Jose.
YouŽd better focus on line movements ...

[onlooker]

Better check injury reports and player status as well. Magic would of been a play for me, but no way jose with all those key players out. They still hung in there, but didn't cover. I was looking at the ML anyway.

So always check injury reports. Adjust when key players are out.

[Jive]

Hard to pin it to a top 3 across the board, because the factors are different depending on the teams involved. For example, and older team with no bench playing 4 games in 5 nights will be affected more than a younger team with a deep bench. So the weight of factors change with the situation. Primarily, the FIRST things I look at (not necessarily the most important, depending on the game) are matchups/styles, motivation, recent performance. Injuries, game location, and all that stuff are built into the line, but they still need to be examined.

[Data]

your line
the current market line
where you think the line is going to

[pedro803]

recent performance/scheduling, style/matchup questions, injury reports/player status -- in no particular order

[Oli]

best of luck this week

[Salmon Steak]

First - I look at who has the best chance to cover the spread.
Second - I look at if it's the type of game that has a good chance of producing that result. (If it doesn't... I pass)
Third - I think about where I think the line will go. (If I think it will go in my favor I will wait and buy later. If I think the line will move against me I will buy right now.)

[Flying Dutchman]

injury game, back-to-back game, fg% dif over the last 2 weeks.

[smartbets]

your line the current market line where you think the line is going to

what are some factors that shed some light on which teams the line will move "towards" and which team the line will move "away" from?

[Data]

what are some factors that shed some light on which teams the line will move "towards" and which team the line will move "away" from?

In no particular order:
1) the public perception indicated by betting percentages and the lines from SIA and Bodog
2) the direction of the line move since the opening
3) the direction towards what you think is the true line

[smartbets]

thanks data

is there a process to distinguish between "sharp/syndicate" money moving the line, versus "public/recreational/square" money moving the line?

i am guessing a way may be an early line move, with the move continuing in the original direction of the first move, even if the betting percentages were on the other side, and the bodog/sia line is moving the other way, might signal a "smart" money move??

thanks

[Data]

is there a process to distinguish between "sharp/syndicate" money moving the line, versus "public/recreational/square" money moving the line?

My take on this is that if SIA/Bodog lead and the rest eventually follow then that indicates heavy public action. If Pinny/CRIS lead and the rest quickly follow then that indicates sharp action. I should also mention RLM as a reasonable concept. Most importantly I want to point out that I neither attempt nor advise selecting plays based on the line movements but rather attempt predicting line movements to time my bets placings.

[horsiehung]

very interesting...is there a service that distills this down?

[BJ1945]

My take on this is that if SIA/Bodog lead and the rest eventually follow then that indicates heavy public action. If Pinny/CRIS lead and the rest quickly follow then that indicates sharp action. I should also mention RLM as a reasonable concept. Most importantly I want to point out that I neither attempt nor advise selecting plays based on the line movements but rather attempt predicting line movements to time my bets placings.

The old adage is to bet Favs early and Dogs late. Does that still hold?

[smartbets]

ThankS Data

Is RLM=Reverse Line Movement ?

[Data]

The old adage is to bet Favs early and Dogs late. Does that still hold?

I did not study this issue and cannot provide any meaningful input but, as a guess, I doubt that this is true. However, I think that it very much may depend on sport as the public seem to like favorites while betting spreads in NFL and NBA yet likes dogs' plus money while betting MLB.

ThankS Data

Is RLM=Reverse Line Movement ?

Yes, it is.

[Wrecktangle]

In no particular order:
1) the public perception indicated by betting percentages and the lines from SIA and Bodog
2) the direction of the line move since the opening
3) the direction towards what you think is the true line

FYI: Using these methods is a good way to get tossed from books, i.e. steam chasing.

[smartbets]

thanks Wreck

I figured one would need to mix in other plays as well at the books one would play these at - and mix in these plays with locals too, if possible based on line offered closer to tip off

[Flying Dutchman]

Another point on steam chasing, from a books point of view you are unbalancing the action in favor of a more likely winner while doing nothing in terms of betting likely winners. You are handicapping the market vice the game.

A second thing to consider, if you don't get down until the end of the steam move, you will likely have exhausted the value of the steam move, that is, there is no more value in the position you wind up in as the initial steam has covered it and the steam chasers may have pushed it too far.

[Dark Horse]

1) Overlays
2) Schedule
3) Form of the day (motivational fluctuations/intensity)
4) Public misperception
5) Part of the season (I use five or six different chapters, each with own character).

[Richards]

In no particular order:
1) the public perception indicated by betting percentages and the lines from SIA and Bodog

Oooooh, I like that, and I'm kicking myself for never thinking of it. I've always questioned/doubted maybe not the gross accuracy of the "consensus" percentage numbers that are publicly available but maybe the precise accuracy in that I don't think SOME the numbers are accurate, and maybe NONE are precise.

Anyway, Bodog's lines and the market they cater to, a nice market driven metric indeed.

[Jive]

I agree, I don't trust the consensus #'s from any sight, including the books themselves. Why trust anything they tell you? Their agenda is to take your money!! I just compare line moves between certain books and ignore any %'s any sight gives me.

[DaProfessor23]

I dont consider any of those factors. And I dont try to outsmart the oddsmakers. No way, Jose.
YouŽd better focus on line movements ...

co-sign