[The Investor]

ML Underdogs in baseball, hockey and the nba..



Projected Numbers

120-140 plays per month

48%-51% winners

(+1.25) or higher payback on winners...





since sept 5, here are the documented numbers its produced.

MLB: 75-75

NHL: 73-76

NBA: 29-28


Overall: 177-179 (+46.00 units)


thats (4.2) plays per day, with a (49.7%) winning percentage... with an average payback of (+1.27) on the winners..

granted the sample size is only 356 plays...


my question, how large a sample size would you think is needed to think you have a highly successful computer program on your hands..

and yes, i wrote the program..

[mlb]

I have been looking for an accurate record of what MLB home underdogs have been over the past 5 years to see if it is worth it to just flat bet a unit on every home dog...

I never thought about hockey or NBA but is there anyway we can get more infor on this

[Arilou]

That's a good run, to be sure, especially if it's right off the bat for your first program and it was locked before the results started. Still far too early to say anything definitive, but if I knew why it was working I'd certainly be wagering with it at this point if your methodology was solid.

[The Investor]

solid methodology, ive been wagering since sept 5 with it........... this program is 2yrs in the making but has not and will not be altered in any way...

it has nothing to do with home dogs...

the play volume will go over 400 today and the record is right at 50% exactly with a payback of about (+1.27) on the winners..

thx for the comments...

[djiddish98]

You were at 356 yesterday and now you're over 400 today? Or was the previous snapshot from a little while ago?

[The Investor]

the 400 was the number that included football (college and pro) (15-24) and was scrapped after a couple of weeks.. simply doesnt work for college sports or the nfl..

the 356 is an accurate number, with 5 more plays today..

total volume over 360....

[djiddish98]

I'm not a big stat guy, but I would say you have a convincing sample by taking 1-BINOMDIST(.5*360,360,.44[~prob of a line at +127],true)

However, I'm surprised that some sort of advantage like this can exist with strictly on underdogs with 5 plays a day.

Care to delve into more detail? How many factors are you looking at?

[jgilmartin]

How are your plays doing against the closing line?

[The Investor]

jgilmartin: i dont know, beating it most of the time (i think)... they are all ML dogs... includes only (baseball, hockey and the nba)...

all the plays have been posted but they are at another site and i dont want to mention it here at SBR..

i gave an accurate, documented record above...

the sample size is still small......... i was wondering, what sample size that i should be looking for, to make sure i have a winning longterm program...

after tonight there will be 361 plays in the books for (baseball, hockey and the nba combined)...

thanks for comments guys..

[gamecock0118]

I've been following it at "the other site" and I must say it is impressive. Pretty consistent earnings. Some nights are better than others as to be expected, however on the whole the swings have been minimal.

[The Investor]

well, if you followed on the other site, you know it went 4-1 tonight on the dogs..

[gamecock0118]

And almost hit a big one with Portland over Boston. They led most of the way.

[The Investor]

The plays have been all posted here since November 15th, in their appropriate rooms, NBA and NHL, under the thread title (The Falcon's Computer Plays)..

remember the plays only reflect the record from nov 15th until today... but its still quite good..

[The Investor]

one other thing, the Programs record using the spread (ATS) for the nba is (23-8) so not too shabby there either..

drop down to the nba and nhl rooms here at SBR, to follow these on a daily basis..