[Squirrel]

Ok there is something I have never really done that I would like to learn a little bit about. Say I have a random darts tournament (for argument sakes) thats in bracket style, similar to what you guys would see in the playoffs, and I have a method of obtaining a %chance of each outcome between every player. How would I go about calculating this into "fair" outright odds if I trusted my numbers enough.

IE, Round 1
(Match 1)Player A v Player B
(Match 2)Player C v Player D
(Match 3)Player E v Player F
(Match 4)Player G v Player H

Then winner of Match 1 plays 2, and 3 plays 4 - then obviously the final. Now I have a method of predicting percentage chance between any set of players, for EG A beats B 65% of the time, A beats C 33% of the time, C beats D 44% of the time etc etc

You all know what i'm on about i've just made a bad example of explaining - now what I want are methods to calculate outright prices based on those probabilities, and anything else that might help me with this. The ONLY important thing is any advice comes in the form of telling me what to look for and what to learn about, I dont actually want it done for me.

Cheers fellas

[xbalto]

The brute force method would be to enumerate every possibly outcome of the tournament; there are 2^(n-1) outcomes for a tournament with n teams. The probability of a tournament outcome is found by multiplying the probabilities of each game outcome. The probability that a team wins is the sum of the probabilities of all tournament outcomes in which that team wins.

There are more efficient methods, but this would work for a small tournament. I suggest you take logarithms of the probabilities and add them rather than multiply the raw probabilities (log[p1]+log[p2] = log[p1*p2]).

[Squirrel]

Thanks pal, appreciated, will get researching as to what you actually mean

[JustinBieber]

I think log5 formula but not sure.

[Squirrel]

TTT. Can comebody give me a clue on where to start or some thing to read that might give me a push in the right direction. I'm good with maths and numbers generally but only to a pretty basic level and sometimes get confused about the names of certain formulas/processes etc etc.