1. 11-24-10 04:18 AM #1
    belvedere86
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    how to handicap nba

    Hi,

    I have quite a lot of free time during my workday and would like to try to handicap nba. now I dont really know how to start. so how do you handicap a game? which sites do you use and with information /data is important? thanks

    I took a look on covers.com and from this info I like knicks +5 and pistons +7 today.
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  2. 11-27-10 12:05 AM #2
    Pokerjoe
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    Your question is too big, Belvedere. But I'd say, with any sport, start out (and maybe finish) by making power ratings. Doing this by hand is fine; doing it by program is fine, also. Good luck, have fun, don't bet too much.
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  3. 11-27-10 03:08 AM #3
    Toples
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    do not take into account 2 last games when capping, make the lines ahead of games
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  4. 11-27-10 04:09 AM #4
    xBreatheout
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toples View Post
    do not take into account 2 last games when capping, make the lines ahead of games
    exactly.
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  5. 11-27-10 05:24 AM #5
    LegitBet
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    Very interesting thoughts...good to learn other perspectives
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  6. 11-27-10 08:42 AM #6
    gmcarroll33
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    Hoopsstats.com and hoopdata.com are good resources for any WA information your looking to use
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  7. 11-27-10 08:49 AM #7
    Indecent
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toples View Post
    do not take into account 2 last games when capping, make the lines ahead of games
    Can you elaborate on this? If you use a model I can't think of any reason this would be beneficial.
    Last edited by Indecent; 11-27-10 at 08:53 AM.
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  8. 11-27-10 09:16 PM #8
    Data
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toples View Post
    do not take into account 2 last games when capping, make the lines ahead of games
    One of the worst advices ever.
    Points Awarded:

    Meestermike gave Data 5 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    Meestermike gave Data 5 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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  9. 11-28-10 02:21 PM #9
    Flying Dutchman
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    If you are not taking the entire trip on the road into account, you will be missing information.
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  10. 11-28-10 03:52 PM #10
    colchonero10
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    I first look at home and away records. Then records of the last 10 games and any winning/losing streaks. After than, I look at each team's last 5 games closely, and the strength of opponents they've faced.
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  11. 11-28-10 09:48 PM #11
    70kgman
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toples View Post
    do not take into account 2 last games when capping, make the lines ahead of games
    Horrible advice. And pretty much goes against my capping style entirely.
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  12. 11-29-10 05:16 AM #12
    pedro803
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toples View Post
    do not take into account 2 last games when capping, make the lines ahead of games

    Somehow I think Toples was trying to be a comedian, maybe I am wrong
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  13. 12-01-10 02:13 AM #13
    Dark Horse
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    nm.
    Last edited by Dark Horse; 12-01-10 at 02:23 AM.
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  14. 12-01-10 07:41 AM #14
    Arilou
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    If markets dramatically *overreact* to last two games could be a winning strategy to cap as if they don't exist, even if they have major impact.
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  15. 12-01-10 12:21 PM #15
    Data
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arilou View Post
    If markets dramatically *overreact* to last two games could be a winning strategy to cap as if they don't exist, even if they have major impact.
    Aside from a pathological case when the capper dramatically overreacts himself, the capper will still see that dramatic market's overreaction while accounting for the last two games. So, not accounting would not make his capping better. However, it would deny him the opportunity to know if the overreaction is still taking place while going forward. While you made a very fine point on market's overreaction your hypothesis on the possibility of deriving a winning strategy this way seems wrong to me.
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  16. 12-01-10 08:53 PM #16
    Peregrine Stoop
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    Quote Originally Posted by belvedere86 View Post
    Hi, I have quite a lot of free time during my workday and would like to try to handicap nba. now I dont really know how to start. so how do you handicap a game? which sites do you use and with information /data is important? thanks I took a look on covers.com and from this info I like knicks +5 and pistons +7 today.
    you have no clue and should give up now unless you want to flush a lot of money down the toilet for *entertainment*
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  17. 12-02-10 12:05 PM #17
    phillybul
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    hoopstats.com is a great resource I use, you just have to pick up alot of tip like with handicapping any sport, I just started really handicapping the nba three months ago, Im making a nice 2/3k a month...this site helped me out alot
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  18. 12-02-10 05:02 PM #18
    luegofuego
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    I hope no ones stupid enough to click that...
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