Originally Posted by
Pokerjoe
Your first sentence is contradictory. You say you handicapped it as an easy cover, then later, in the same sentence, say you weren't very sure of the play. Handicapping it as an easy cover means you ARE very sure of the play. That's what "easy cover" means.
Most likely, you are backfitting your feelings. After seeing the game come in the way you leaned, you remember your capping as being a strong play. But if the game had come out differently, you'd remember it differently, something like, "Yeah, I was wise to doubt SD and over, good for me."
And your idea about prime time games is wrong, Rocks. Or someone told you wrong. Prime time games need not be avoided any more than they need be bet. A game's primetimeness is irrelevant to a wager decision (although the square money it draws may make it slightly more likely that you'll find value in it).
Good luck.