If I take a unit each the correct series, is that the same as taking the series at -400? I don't think so because the payout is +150 to +915 for each scenario.
If I added the %BE for each of the correct series scenarios: 7.6%+16.0%+17.7%+18.2% = 59.5% ----> which translates to -146.8 ML. This seems like a useless calculations as I would be risking 4 units if all four scenarios are lost.
Unfortunately, between work getting busy and my newborn at home, I can barely concentrate on math at the moment.
I would greatly appreciate some insight into the math.
You have the correct answer in your post. The games won odds are -146.8 so you are slightly better off just taking Texas -145. If you have some valid reason to believe that at least one of the games won scenarios are underpriced, then you could set-up your wagers for a better return than -145.
For example, if you believe that the line for the 4-0 scenario is too low and you eliminate it from your wagers, your new line for Texas to win would be approx -108. Of course the reduction from -145 to -108 is because you are taking on the risk of a 4-0 win by Texas.
I actually have 4 units on Texas -118 for the series. My local posted the number the night of the last SF/PHI game, and I jumped on it. I confirmed the wager today when he paid me for last week's winnings. It currently sits at -145
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Is there a potential correlated wager opportunity in the World Series prices?
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