[dimon]

All right guys, learning the hard way I guess...put in a few teasers, some with DEN, won couplewhere DEN was not present, and then noitice the DEN odds not in my favor...so basically I have 3 bets with DEN (-1.5) and NE (+8.5)

there are:

1 two team (DEN, NE)
1 three team (won, DEN, NE)
1 four team (won, won, DEN, NE)

What will be the best way to hedge against what is going on in DEN now?

Thanks in advance.

[tomcowley]

Seriously? You've already lost almost all the value of the bet (from timing, it should be 24-0 or worse). You're ******.

[dimon]

well my question was how to hedge before the game starts?

[tomcowley]

well my question was how to hedge before the game starts?

Of course it was. That's why you posted this

What will be the best way to hedge against what is going on in DEN now?

an hour after the game started.

[dimon]

ok, let me explain, I was thinking about just bet OAK ML, then decided to let it ride, due to the fact that the bet was solid before the game, even thought there was some line movement....so then DEN decided not to play, so I lost, now I am asking what is the way to hedge these...what part didn't you understand???

[dmolition]

Not to hijack but my scenario is with hedging minnesota
i have my bets like this:

3 two team teasers : (won,min) , (won,min), (won,won)
1 three team teaser (won,won,min)

is it EV to hedge?

i imagine it depends on the BR and money at risk but i cant figure out how to calculate it.

[dimon]

similar situation, exept that I had NE in the mix as well as DEN...well, with 10-20K or so, and about 5% tighted up in the bets, I guess it is still smarter to just let it ride...my only concern was, right before the game DEN was not the play on any of the teaser sets.

[dmolition]

with so short notice i dunno if what i did is the optimal or not,
i figured out how much i was risking to win on all teasers and i came up with odds of -116 to win minnesota +9
so i middle it with GB -2.5 -115 so now i stand to win a lot if green bay wins by any margin except over 9 points
and in every other scenario im losing just a little.

[subs]

look at this thread and download the attachment.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicappe...ts-please.html

[Pancho sanza]

Figure out all the relevant outcomes and their probabilities, they should sum to 1.00

Calculate expected log of your ending bankroll, formula would be:

= sum(ln(bankroll if outcome X happens) * probability of outcome X ).

Use excel solver to fill in the bet amounts.