Originally Posted by
CMangano
Maybe I am not understanding it fully, but from what I have read the closing ML is usually 50/50. So the dog wins half the time and the fav wins half the time. This can't be right, can it? In that case, someone who always bets the dog at the closing number can't lose. They will win half their bets at + vig. In this same example someone who beats the closing line on the fav will lose, since they will win half their bets at - vig.
So assuming the above is not fact, can someone please explain why beating the closing line is +EV?