[George7904]

I entered the spread of 14 into the calculator for the Lions/Packers game. I converted the line to 10.5, and it gave me Pack-10.5@-144.5 and lions+10.5@+119. Is this correct? My local is dealing the alt line at +180 for the Lions.

Let's split the -144.5 and 119 to get the juicefree line at 132. So the 3.5 points are only worth 32 cents? This doesn't pass the "smell" test. Am I missing something or should I pound the Lions +10.5 @+180?

I couldn't find the alt lines out at any other books to get another opinion.

Thoughts???

[sharpcat]

Way off

Convert the line to its no-vig price in the calculator first so a -110/-110 would be changed to 100/100 and than calculate this would than suggest the no-vig price that you should expect at 10.5.

[George7904]

OK- that puts it at 129.4. 29.4 cents for 3 points just didn't seem like enough in an NFL game; but I trust Ganch's calculations.

[sharpcat]

+180 is a steal I would unload on that line

[byronbb]

I was under the impression that using hal-point calc for more than 1.5 points was a no-no?? Although using no-vig lines is interesting.


The calculator becomes increasingly less accurate the farther away from the starting spread/total it moves. Although the calculator allows you to examine prices more than 1½ points from the initial spread/total, doing so is not generally recommended and such values should be viewed with an abundance of caution.

But Carolina +7.5 +210 is looking pretty good to me none the less..


Oh yeah -144.5/+119 has a no vig of -129...you do not just divide the juice.

[Shonner]

[I]The calculator becomes increasingly less accurate the farther away from the starting spread/total it moves. Although the calculator allows you to examine prices more than 1½ points from the initial spread/total, doing so is not generally recommended and such values should be viewed with an abundance of caution.

exactly...i dont think there's enough caution on that, there should be a warning that is easier to catch

[sharpcat]

exactly...i dont think there's enough caution on that, there should be a warning that is easier to catch

The push % in the calculator are derived from past performances where the push % of each number was taken from a sample of games with a point spread of say 6.5-7.5 to find how often a game landed on 7, so the push % of 10 on a game with a spread of 6.5-7.5 will likely differ from games with a spread of 9.5-10.5.

This is why the further you get from the point spread the less accurate the %'s may be.

IMO...One would be better off looking at a sample of games with a spread of 6.5-7.5 and deriving the push % of 10 from that sampling although the numbers in the calculator should be pretty accurate considering that the push %'s have a lot to do with the scoring distributions in football.

[George7904]

I did not even see that fine print on the page- thanks for pointing it out. I'm anxious to see what other books have on this alt line. Anyone know of any books that have these out already? Greek, pinnacle, dsi, Carib, bodog do not have them out yet.

[Shonner]

The push % in the calculator are derived from past performances where the push % of each number was taken from a sample of games with a point spread of say 6.5-7.5 to find how often a game landed on 7, so the push % of 10 on a game with a spread of 6.5-7.5 will likely differ from games with a spread of 9.5-10.5.

This is why the further you get from the point spread the less accurate the %'s may be.

IMO...One would be better off looking at a sample of games with a spread of 6.5-7.5 and deriving the push % of 10 from that sampling although the numbers in the calculator should be pretty accurate considering that the push %'s have a lot to do with the scoring distributions in football.

Yes, exactly. There's actually a thread where I raised this to Justin7. Anything with a line of 3 would be really whack, for example, if you put in the line of 6 and look @ the probability for a line of 3 it is going to be way out of whack because it's going to have that crooked 9%+ tie %, even though the push rate for a spread of 6 isn't probably close to 9%.

[donjuan]

The further you move away from the given spread, the more it will overestimate how much each point is worth. So, when you're essentially selling points as you are here, I wouldn't be too concerned about the half-point calculator's inaccuracies. If you were taking the -10.5 side, I would be more concerned.

[LegitBet]

YES
very tru....i find the point calc sometimes spits out erroneous results, but you remind me i must factor in dog/fav