[HedgeHog]

Some Books allow pleasers in Basketball, and it's not necessarily a bad deal. A few of the places I have allow a 4-pt pleaser at 13-2 for 2-teamers.

For those that aren't aware, a "Pleaser" is a reverse teaser in that you're giving up points instead of getting them. You give up 4 points instead of getting the same--but you get 6.5 -1 odds on a two-teamer.

Ok, normally it's a sucker bet...but not when you please thru the 0. For example, a +3.5 dog is now a 1/2 pt fav, or a +2.5 dog is now -1.5. Combining two such bets, I find I'm hitting one in six, yet getting paid at 6.5 -1 . You can grind out a profit this way, IMO.

[Igetp2s]

Which books are you talking about? I have only heard of pleasers for football, and usually 2 temas, 6 points, at 6-1.

[RickySteve]

So you hate money then?

[HedgeHog]

So you hate money then?

Was that comment directed toward me? You think a 4pt Please thru Pick is -Ev? Enlighten me.

[donjuan]

HH,

What books offer 4 pt basketball pleasers at 13/2?

[durito]

nm

[HedgeHog]

Say you've isolated two underdogs at +3.5 each, which you can please to -.5 (basically pick 'em). Would a payout of 6.5:1 be worth it? To know the answer, you need to have an idea of how often 3.5 dogs win outright. I'd say 40% as an educated guess and would appreciate more accurate info on small hoop dogs winning outright (Col & NBA).

At 40% winners, the please has .16 chance of success (.4 x.4). Fair value would be 5.25:1

At 39% winners, .1521 success rate, with FV at 5.575:1

At 38% winners, .1444 success rate with FV at 5.925:1

At 37% winners, .1369 success rate with FV at 6.305:1

So if 3.5 dogs win outright at least 37% of the time, and I think it's significantly higher, then the please is a sound play.

[LT Profits]

Since 1990, NBA outright win rates by spread:

+1 50.1%
+1.5 47.3%
+2 45.7%
+2.5 43.0%
+3 43.4%
+3.5 37.6%

Intersesting that +3 dogs have done slightly better than +2.5

[rake922]

HedgeHog, what books allow this?

[HedgeHog]

Since 1990, NBA outright win rates by spread:

+1 50.1%
+1.5 47.3%
+2 45.7%
+2.5 43.0%
+3 43.4%
+3.5 37.6%

Intersesting that +3 dogs have done slightly better than +2.5

Thanks for the info, LT. At 37.6% the please is still profitable. A better please is 2.5 dogs. You have a 43% success rate less the chance of the 'dog winning by exactly 1. Since 1 is a very low occurrence, according to Ganch's push probabilites, the overall success of a 2.5 dog pleased to -1.5 is roughly 40%--a huge advantage.

PS Some have asked, but I feel it unwise to name the outs in a public forum. I found two places rather easily on my own.

[rake922]

Is this only for sides or are totals also allowed?

[HedgeHog]

Is this only for sides or are totals also allowed?

Sides only where I'm at. If you can get an NBA Pleaser for 4 or 5 point on Totals--it's a license to print money. Please PM me if you find such a place.

[rake922]

HedgeHog, are you gonna be implementing these pleasers in the NBA playoffs?

[HedgeHog]

Rake:

Sure, whenever present. A few possibilities for Sat's games.

[RickySteve]

Attention is so much more valuable than money.

[rake922]

Attention is so much more valuable than money.

[HedgeHog]

Attention is so much more valuable than money.

If I wanted attention, I would've posted this topic in the Main Forum. I think your one sentence cryptic responses scream more for attention. By the way, I never disclosed the outs for these type of bets--and I won't.

This is the problem with the Think Tank. NoBody wants to share +EV angles. God forbid we take up a discussion of correlated parlays or "Wong" teasers.

I consider the Pleaser talk over, I really don't have much to add anyway, so Ricky can unclench his colon.

[Bluehorseshoe]

If I wanted attention, I would've posted this topic in the Main Forum. I think your one sentence cryptic responses scream more for attention. By the way, I never disclosed the outs for these type of bets--and I won't.

This is the problem with the Think Tank. NoBody wants to share +EV angles. God forbid we take up a discussion of correlated parlays or "Wong" teasers.

I consider the Pleaser talk over, I really don't have much to add anyway, so Ricky can unclench his colon.

You won't disclose your outs, but you want us to let you know which books will "please" totals?? That seems fair.

[HedgeHog]

You won't disclose your outs, but you want us to let you know which books will "please" totals?? That seems fair.

Not on a public forum, but I see no problem with trading +Ev info thru PM.