[dynamite140]

Not sure what to call it but i am not sure if this is a middle or not.

I see a college football game where you can take

Team A +14 (-110)
Team B -13.5 (+101)


Is this bet worth it? The only way you profit here is if Team B wins by exactly 14 points which is not that hard since its pretty much close to the spread and a key number. Using $100 as the base amount to make it simple, if this game does not end with Team B winning by exactly 14, you are down around $4.48 using the scalpulator and plugging in those numbers. But if Team B wins by exactly 14, you win about $105 or so if you enter the right numbers.

Obviously if the juice was something like team A (-105) and Team B (+105) this would be an easy bet because you are freerolling. But if you look at this situation, if Team B wins by exactly 14 points 1 time out of 23 times, then this bet is good.

Basically its Team B need to win by exactly 14 and you win $105 or any other result you lose $4.48 just by using a $100 base amount to make it simple. Am i right or wrong with these calculations? Surely some bet like this is good or is it a waste of money? I know if you can get Team A +17 and Team B -14, that is an easy bet because there is a 3 point middle and 14 and 17 are key numbers in a football game. But what about situations like this? Now if it was +18.5 and -19, i think its worthless.

Anyone can give me their thoughts of something like this?

[sharpcat]

Is the game going to land on 14 4.55% of the time or better?

If you think the answer is no than you will be making a -EV play by attempting to half middle.