[Tomato]

Tomato is well aware of the "Pinnacle Lean" where Pinnacle traps bettors into betting on a losing line by offering a better line than other books.

After taking them for a few thousand, Tomato has noticed that when SIA has the better line than other books, particularly a +EV bet compared to Pinnacle or Matchbook, that side is usually a winner.

He wonders if betting these sides at books offering a -EV line would be profitable, considering the rate they are hitting at far outpaces the expected growth.

Tomato knows it sounds stupid asking "is betting into a negative proposition profitable" but wants you to consider the circumstance.

[trixtrix]

yes, betting -ev lines are profitable

[LT Profits]

LT says never make -EV bets ever, except in extremely rare hedging cases. Also, LT's gut instinct (admittedly without research) says that when you see an "SIA lean", the proper bet would be to play the more favorable side at SIA since they are such a square book.

[Tomato]

What about betting reverse line movement Sir Profits? Tomato is asking if you are fairly certain that one side has the "smart money" on it, would betting on that side be wise even though it's -EV?

For example we have a game coming up with an SIA lean and reverse movement. It's Louisville. The number opened at 4.5, now has moved to 3. At most books, you're seeing Louisville +3 -110. However if you check SIA AND BODOG you see +3 +100 at SIA and +3 +105 at Bodog.

+3 +105 is the +EV play, however, seeing 83% on Rutgers, the line moving to 3, the "SIA lean" on Louisville, wouldn't it indicate smart money on Louisville giving you an edge that would make -110 profitable?

Something else Tomato has noticed with SIA, they typically feature a front page with 5 plays on them, and the 5 losing sides (square sides) in bold with a star next to them. You can even one-click and parlay these 5 sides! We also see Rutgers as a bold side here.

[patswin]

they always have good dog prices

[gman2114]

they have a weird set up in order for the amount you can bet.

[benjy]

Tomato's theory would work if both 1) The initial line was very off the true line and 2) The market for the bet in question was extremely inefficient (i.e. there wasn't enough action to move the off line to the true spot or enough sharp action to offset the public).

But if you knew 1&2 with any certainty you would simply shop for the best line for that particular bet, not examine what a square book was doing.

[skrtelfan]

Essentially the "SIA lean" in that instance probably isn't all that strong. It's perfectly reasonable to assume the fair line there is Louisville +3 at even money.

[IrishTim]

SIA is a great book to have in your arsenal if you can (a) get paid and (b) not get kicked out.

[TomG]

What you're describing is basically the same thing as betting against the public. Refer to sportsinsights for historical results

[jayc88]

complete bullshit,
sia sets a trap for all the square bettors with no clue and bet into their bad lines

[Tomato]

9-1 playing on teams that had +EV at SIA vs Pinnnacle (5Dimes used for FCS).

You don't need to bet these teams at SIA.

EDIT - TOMATO screwed up FCS games. SIA had -6.5 on WILLIAM AND MARY while 5Dimes had -10. SIA had 3 on RICHMOND while 5dimes had -4. NEW HAMPSHIRE was not a bad line as 5Dimes had -2. Record doesn't change though.

[smitch124]

when did they add Sportsinteraction to sbrodds

[Tomato]

2H lean at BODOG (square book like SIA)

4-0 yesterday on +EV 2H wagers.

Tomato sees an error with the +0.5 lines. Investigate SBR!

[kchien]

So for tonight, baltimore would be the play since SIA has them at -7.5 while Pinnacle has them at -9 and everyone else pretty much has them at -8?

[roasthawg]

So for tonight, baltimore would be the play since SIA has them at -7.5 while Pinnacle has them at -9 and everyone else pretty much has them at -8?

I think that would make Pittsburgh the play... sucks as I'm on Baltimore here.

[LT Profits]

I think that would make Pittsburgh the play... sucks as I'm on Baltimore here.

No, the Steelers are a rare "square dog" play at SIA, and Baltimore is +EV there if you use Pinny (and in this case many others) as the base line.

[durito]

No, the Steelers are a rare "square dog" play at SIA, and Baltimore is +EV there if you use Pinny (and in this case many others) as the base line.

what?

line is 7.5 most places, pinny just hanging -9 +118 to avoid teasers

[LT Profits]

Ah, there was no mention of that in previous post. I was assuming flat -9 at Pinny (I know, I should have looked first) and poster said line was -8 at most places.

So given the facts now, there is no lean one way or the other.

[20Four7]

Pinny always avoids the wong teasers. ALWAYS......

[Johnny 55]

Tomato Rules

[Hybris]

Tomato Rules

[LT Profits]

Pinny always avoids the wong teasers. ALWAYS......

Yeah I know but there were legit Ravens -9s and even -9.5s out there at -110 yesterday afternoon, thus my senile moment.

[kchien]

Ah, there was no mention of that in previous post. I was assuming flat -9 at Pinny (I know, I should have looked first) and poster said line was -8 at most places.

So given the facts now, there is no lean one way or the other.

Sorry, when I looked, there were alot of 8s and 9s. I guess the lines moved. Well, at least I think I know what is going on now.

[aggieshawn]

sia is ok

[skrtelfan]

Actually Pinnacle had a couple basic strategy teaser options one week this year, but for the most part they almost always avoid them. Not sure if they had them up by mistake or if there was a specific reason.

[Grux]

I like tomatos posts.

[jeccross]

What's your definition of a -EV line? Because betting a -EV line is never profitable by my definition.

[Kaps]

sia kicked me out .....fukkkers

[Tomato]

4-1 for Tomato on the SIA lean last week.

13-2 the past 2 weeks. HOWEVER one game (PITT) you would have lost if you bet it anywhere else. So 12-3 at other books.



3-2 on the BODOG 2H plays

7-2 overall on the BODOG 2H plays.

So TOMATO has tracked a 20-4 record the past 2 weeks when testing this theory.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Tomato, what you're doing is called steam chasing...

[Tomato]

Tomato, what you're doing is called steam chasing...

But Tomato isn't beating these books to the number using line services, rather betting lines that they leave up because of a square influence on the other side

Educate Tomato please as you are one of the 4 posters in this forum who has a clue.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I guess I should say you're steam chasing into possibly bad lines...

That said, the only way you'll win long term betting into the closers of high volume books is if the markets are somehow inefficient. This shouldn't be the case for major American sports. However, the liklihood that 2H lines are inefficient is far greater than full game lines. You'll need a sample size of at least a few hundred to have any indication of how effective it is. And if you do see inefficiency there, you'll never really know when it's gone until you lose the majority of your bankroll.

[MonkeyF0cker]

It's a dangerous undertaking in my opinion, Tomato. You're far better off playing off numbers.

[MonkeyF0cker]

What I would suggest is creating a database of line histories (particularly 2H) and game results and backtest your system. You'll be able to tell how effective this strategy would have been in the past and it will enable you to see if the markets are trending toward higher efficiency now and before any possible value is exhausted in the future.