[u21c3f6]

I have no reason to doubt your story. But it's still just a trend that you happened upon (that apparently lasted an unusually long time). The fact that you could find profit in trifectas, but not straight bets, exactas or quinellas, is a dead giveaway. Why would the public be "sufficiently aware of the statistics to keep the returns in the negative expectation area" for all these other bets, but not for trifectas??

Several reasons.

1. The amount of money wagered in trifecta pools dwarfs the the amounts wagered in the other pools.
2. The larger number of combinations allows for larger variances from "true" odds and what I think is a big factor
3. There is no board that tells you what the odds are for each trifecta combination. If the knowledgeable public "knew" that post #1 had about a 20% chance to win the next game and they looked up at the tote and saw odds of 10-1, I guarantee you that post #1 would not go off at 10-1. This cannot be done with trifectas.
4. The public also has a tendency to box their favorite or better players. This doesn't work very well in Jai Alai because (assuming each player has equal ability) each combination is not equally likely to come in because of the mathematical set-up of the game. This becomes painfully obvious when a "hard" combination comes in and it pays less than half of what it should pay. This overplaying of "bad" combinations along with the avoidance of some "good" combinations creates the profits (and doubly so in the twin-tri).

Joe.



Joe.

[u21c3f6]

Joe.

I think you are nitpicking what Justin is saying what he is referring to are your martingale systems and any other crazy systems that do not consider the price you are paying for your wager and will tell you to bet no matter what your win probability is or what the wager price is.

In the Jai Alai example you provided the ending where you suggest that your strategy lost its value because of the 25% takeout you are showing that consideration of the price of your wager was a very important part of what you were doing. When Justin refers to taking price into consideration he is referring to the fact that a bet at -110 needs to win 52.38% or better in order for one not to lose money.

I know that you are die hard on your view that hedging is the optimal strategy and I am sure that because every hedge attempt you set up has to involve you in some way considering the price of the wager and where it will move in the future that hedging would not be considered a system and is more than welcome in the think tank.

Sharpcat, Justin, I have no intent to nit-pick and maybe it is only semantics but I see many times where BTCL is IMO touted as the only way someone can gain an advantage or calculate if their wager is +EV and that is just not true.

You are correct that the majority of my sports wagers involve some type of hedge which I tried to demonstrate in several previous threads. I did not use hedging as an example because that is quite different than making let-it-ride wagers. In fact, based on BTCL, most of my initial hedge wagers are theoretically -EV but my net results are +EV because I am applying my knowledge of how the odds will move based on certain events happening. Never, ever, when setting-up my hedges do I consider where the line should be now. I trust that the market will set the lines and the lines will move based on certain events happening relative to where the lines were originally set.

Let me expand on the Jai Alai pricing consideration by concentrating on the twin-tri. The twin-tri carryover pool was distributed every Sunday. The amount of the carryover pool was in fact very close to the amount that would be extracted from Sunday's twin-tri pool which essentially made a wager into Sunday's twin-tri pool a breakeven proposition. However, if you played too many "bad" combinations you would become net -EV. By knowing which combinations are overplayed and which ones are underplayed and wagering accordingly, you have now made +EV wagers which have nothing to do with the odds.

Let me clarify further. Assume that combination 123 is mathematically 100-1 (BTW, 123 is a horrible Jai Alai tri wager). It would seem to mean that anytime you could get 101-1 or better, you have a wager. That is not what I am saying. If better/popular players are in post 123, the tri will most assuredly pay less than 100-1, but then 123 would also come in more often which in fact may still be underbet even though it pays less than 100-1.

I don't know if that is clear but I will leave it at that.

Joe. (Yes Data, my real name is Joe though I do believe I know who you are referring to)

[sharpcat]

Joe.

My stance is that beating the closing line is only one weapon that should be included in a handicappers arsenal which should consist of many weapons. I too like yourself set up many hedge opportunities although I will usually hedge out my play and dependent on my edge will leave myself with a small position on one side.

I think you are misunderstanding nobody has ever said that beating the closer was the only way to profit or that it is the only topic that can be discussed in the think tank.

In sports betting, if you have no clue what the right price is, following blind trends is a quick path to ruin.

I don't mind system discussion, but there are really two things I want to avoid:
1. Any type of progressive or chase system. I'm sick of trying to explain why these are bad.
2. Any system that does not consider the current spread. Whatever you have that works today, it will lose tomorrow if you don't evaluate what the fair price should be. This is as black and white as #1.

What Justin is referring to is the:
-"when team A is playing at home after 2 road losses take them ATS" this is garbage it suggests to make this bet whether the spread is -3 or -14.

-"bet a home team of -140 or higher in a 3 game series to win 1 unit and after each loss bet to win what you lost plus 1 unit"- Again this ignores the price of the wager and many other important factors.


The 2 examples above are "systems" which involve little to no educated thinking which are usually sales pitches for scamdicappers, the 2 examples you listed are well thought strategies.

I hope this is more understandable for you

[bztips]

ok, Joe, you convinced me. I know only a very little bit about Jai Alai, so I was definitely speaking out of my a-s-s earlier. I agree entirely with what sharpie posted.

[HedgeHog]

For the sake of consistency then, explain how you can allow a piece of crap thread entitled "King's Corner" to be featured in the TT. That thread still exists. It was entertaining, but in no way pertinent to this forum --yet it was allowed to stay. Really interested in the rationale here.

[Cheese1976]

enough said...Justin7 suffers from some sort of neurotic complex...I will continue to post anything in this branch of the forum that I believe is a system...take it or leave it...that's all

[That Foreign Guy]

For the sake of consistency then, explain how you can allow a piece of crap thread entitled "King's Corner" to be featured in the TT. That thread still exists. It was entertaining, but in no way pertinent to this forum --yet it was allowed to stay. Really interested in the rationale here.

Because it's funny and it's surprising how often the opportunity to tell someone they are an idiot draws out insight that a polite request might not produce.