[illfuuptn]

I'm a big red sox fan and I often(every 5 games or so) say when I feel strongly about the likely outcome of a game. This year I'm roughly in the 12-6 range with my "picks." But it seems like I am winning easily and losing tough games. My average pick is probably at like -110 or so. Most of the time I don't see much of a line move in my favor for the games(sharps aren't betting my sides). I make these picks based on my knowledge of the team. I see about 4 of every 5 games they play. I just observe anything and everything about the team that is just unquantifiable and I just feel like I know when there's value for or against this team. Is it possible that I'm picking long term winners without doing any real handicapping or am I just running good?

[ForgetWallStreet]

I'm a big red sox fan and I often(every 5 games or so) say when I feel strongly about the likely outcome of a game. This year I'm roughly in the 12-6 range with my "picks." But it seems like I am winning easily and losing tough games. My average pick is probably at like -110 or so. Most of the time I don't see much of a line move in my favor for the games(sharps aren't betting my sides). I make these picks based on my knowledge of the team. I see about 4 of every 5 games they play. I just observe anything and everything about the team that is just unquantifiable and I just feel like I know when there's value for or against this team. Is it possible that I'm picking long term winners without doing any real handicapping or am I just running good?

Running good. Your instincts <<<<<<<<<<< an extremely efficient market.

[oldstylecubsfan]

Its never good when your basing your picks off of seeing only half of the teams playing

[sharpcat]

I will never understand how one can say they "think" they are making valuable picks yet they have no estimated win probability to compare to the price they are paying for the wager and since they are basically just guessing and no math is involved are incapable of estimating their win probability. So how do you know you have value?

[lasker]

I have been winning consistently following my instincts in MMA betting for the past two years. Of course, I always compare my estimation to the set price, but no real math is involved. Perhaps I've just been lucky, but I think maybe the lines are softer than more established sports.

[illfuuptn]

My assumption is that the lines are already pretty efficient and then my extra knowledge Tips the game in one direction or another. You guys spend so much time compiling stats and doing math handicapping just to get you to where the books already are. Look at Edward from RAS. He watches these teams very closely and knows them inside and out. Can't argue with his results.

[ForgetWallStreet]

My assumption is that the lines are already pretty efficient and then my extra knowledge Tips the game in one direction or another. You guys spend so much time compiling stats and doing math handicapping just to get you to where the books already are. Look at Edward from RAS. He watches these teams very closely and knows them inside and out. Can't argue with his results.

Your assumption is wrong and trying to prove otherwise would be costly.

[tomcowley]

Fish Tank Redux FTW

[bztips]

illf, so what you'r'e saying is that you basically go by your gut based on carefully watching a single team. Best of luck; I can guarantee you that's not how RAS makes their picks.

[lasker]

What about some of the successful SBR cappers? Not that there are many at all. But take someone like Paco, who seems to do very well, know the teams inside and out, and never shows up in the Think Tank. That doesn't mean he's not using mathematical handicapping, obviously, but he never mentions it or anything remotely related. For the long term, are all successful gamblers good statistical handicappers? I'm assuming the answer is yes, but I'm interested to hear opinions on whether exceptions exist.

[bztips]

What about some of the successful SBR cappers? Not that there are many at all. But take someone like Paco, who seems to do very well, know the teams inside and out, and never shows up in the Think Tank. That doesn't mean he's not using mathematical handicapping, obviously, but he never mentions it or anything remotely related. For the long term, are all successful gamblers good statistical handicappers? I'm assuming the answer is yes, but I'm interested to hear opinions on whether exceptions exist.

Although I'm heavily into statistical modeling myself, I would think that there are definitely some good cappers who aren't much into math. But you still need to have at least some awareness and consideration of the odds you're dealing with in order to have any chance at long-term success. IOW, you can't just conclude "I love the Red Sox today" without caring about whether the line is -110 or -210.

[xyz]

There are ways to win without handicapping, but it is likely not with your gut feelings about a team. Unless your gut feelings are so unique and accurate that it represents a market inefficiency.

[Sportsfan800]

It's called intuitive betting. You watch all the Baseball/Football that you can to get information. Then you look at a line and intuitively think this line is too high or this line is too low. It is the way I have been gambling. It is easy to watch a lot of games with the internet. You can watch games or listen to games on many different sites. It is VERY difficult to create a successful math model to predict games. I have tried to no avail. Everytime I come up with something it has a bias. The model leans towards favorites, I make changes then it starts to lean towards underdogs. I can intuitively pick games as well as a biased math model. Besides, I would rather watch games than pour over stats for hours every day.

[That Foreign Guy]

It is VERY difficult to create a successful math model to predict games. I have tried to no avail. Everytime I come up with something it has a bias. The model leans towards favorites, I make changes then it starts to lean towards underdogs. I can intuitively pick games as well as a biased math model. Besides, I would rather watch games than pour over stats for hours every day.

Of course it's hard, you have to predict things 10% better than the bookie does and they have a lot of time and money to spend on it. But if it was easy it wouldn't be profitable.

I would rather sit on the beach drinking pina coladas than look at spreadsheets, that doesn't make it a better handicapping method.

[Sfritts8]

What is handicapping?

[Sportsfan800]

Of course it's hard, you have to predict things 10% better than the bookie does and they have a lot of time and money to spend on it. But if it was easy it wouldn't be profitable.

I would rather sit on the beach drinking pina coladas than look at spreadsheets, that doesn't make it a better handicapping method.

Stats and spreadsheets are great, but I don't know how to use them to predict games. To be honest I have no edge and I shouldn't be gambling. I bet because I like the action, not because I have an edge . I'm here because I would like to get better at gambling.

[Peregrine Stoop]

sample size of maybe 18 at maybe -110 lines (w/ the Red Sox btw)

try tracking for real and see how you do. I don't doubt that it's possible for real world viewing to add a bit beyond the numbers. I just doubt that most guys are doing real world viewing well enough to add beyond the numbers.

[dinaro7]

i think unless your betting the redsox every time 12-6 is agood record

[Sawyer]

You can win even with ZERO knowledge/handicapping. Just follow a hot capper..

[PRC]

You can win even with ZERO knowledge/handicapping. Just follow a hot capper..

No such thing as a hot capper.

[merk1986]

right

[Pokerjoe]

No, he's right, there are no such things as hot handicappers. There are only handicappers who have been hot.

I know the unwashed are saying WTF? But the difference between "Is hot" and "has been hot" is huge and this is HTT, not Player's Talk.

[Pokerjoe]

But as to the question about gutcapping, yes, it is possible to win without math, or even much concern for odds. It is certainly possible for the line to be assumably, generically off. Imagine you went to squaresville and no one had figured out there was such a thing as HFA. You could then bet all the home teams without regard for the line.

In the real world, you might, for example, think the Vikings will be overrated this year for at least the first 4-5 games and fade them, period. Or the opposite.

If you assume that a line will otherwise take care of itself (which is true) and you have a special insight or opinion that most don't share (you might) you could fairly assume edge without regard for the line. Or, iow, you might be at peace with the fact that it is often stupid, pretentious, bad math to try to quantify something which no one can quantify.

However, having said that, my preference would be to use power ratings and if my opinion on the Vikings was different from most people's, let it show there so that I would still be putting a number on things so that I would know when the public's view had shifted toward mine as the season progressed. But even then, you might know that without putting a number on it, just by listening to the public.

[pats3peat]

No such thing as a hot capper.

agreed theres a million hot cappers, and everyones on different sides, stupid concept it is

[pats3peat]

saying line doesnt matter is ridiculous

[Sawyer]

agreed theres a million hot cappers, and everyones on different sides, stupid concept it is

No such thing as a hot capper.

Hot capper, I mean succesful cappers who win on the long haul. If you say there isn't anything like this, then you mean everybody lose on the long haul? LoL. Follow succesfull cappers and you can make money even with zero knowledge. You don't even need to cap games.

Be careful about short-term succesful cappers who market themselves after hot runs. What matters most is the succes over long haul.

[Pokerjoe]

saying line doesnt matter is ridiculous

No it isn't, beyond the trite fact that it settles the bet. The line does not have to matter in finding an edge.

Consider a line in a large market, like MNF. Let's say you don't know what the line is. Nonetheless you can safely assume that line is pretty fair, whatever it is. IOW, it doesn't matter what the line is, you can generically assume accuracy.

Now suppose you get inside info that the starting QB for one team is injured, and you already know his sub sucks.

You have an edge. The line doesn't matter. You can assume edge without regard for the line.

You don't need to know who's at home, who's been winning or losing, what other injury info is out there, what the weather is going to be, nothing.

You can bet the line, no matter what it was. And if it moves 3 points against you, you know the info is out, again without regard for what the line is.

There are plenty of times when you can assume edge without regard for the line. But believe me I know full well how offensive such thinking is to many players. People do get insulted by my approach sometimes, which is why I don't much like to post picks.

http://www.majorwager.com/forums/mes...rest-year.html

[Pokerjoe]

The thread linked to, btw, just being an example of line-value assumption, of the sort the OP is talking about. That is, betting without regard for the line. But that isn't the same as betting without regard for getting the best number. I'm sure no one's confused by the difference.

[thebestthereis]

if you played the sports, watched the sports, know the sports, traveled the sports you don't need to handicap to win. it certainly helps but you don't need to be a number geek to win if you have other factors that matter. you cannot handicap certain factors by math that you experience by knowing and playing the game all your life. you cannot put numbers on travel habits, emotion, mental factors, firsthand knowledge of the players/people you are betting on. you can read a book about the sistine chapel and study all you want but unless you have been in the vatican city you cannot possibly understand truly what it is.

[donjuan]

if you played the sports, watched the sports, know the sports, traveled the sports you don't need to handicap to win. it certainly helps but you don't need to be a number geek to win if you have other factors that matter. you cannot handicap certain factors by math that you experience by knowing and playing the game all your life. you cannot put numbers on travel habits, emotion, mental factors, firsthand knowledge of the players/people you are betting on. you can read a book about the sistine chapel and study all you want but unless you have been in the vatican city you cannot possibly understand truly what it is.

Nomination for worst post in TT ever?

[thebestthereis]

Nomination for worst post in TT ever?

I 2nd the motion, meeting adjourned!

[Salmon Steak]

I bet often on cardinal games because they are my team. I also win many $$ on those games. When I see a line I think about what the public likely thinks. Since I know my team much better than the public I can tell when the line is off and I usually have an advantage. That is likely what he means by value.

Example: Tomorrow - cards/pirates - cards much better team than pirates. Lohse has a terrible era. cards -126. However, I think Lohse will be fine tomorrow. I see value in it. Line should be higher. Obviously don't win them all but I see what he is saying.

I agree that only really knowing one team is not suggested. I use other methods outside of my home team though.

[FreeFall]

No it isn't, beyond the trite fact that it settles the bet. The line does not have to matter in finding an edge.

Consider a line in a large market, like MNF. Let's say you don't know what the line is. Nonetheless you can safely assume that line is pretty fair, whatever it is. IOW, it doesn't matter what the line is, you can generically assume accuracy.

Now suppose you get inside info that the starting QB for one team is injured, and you already know his sub sucks.

You have an edge. The line doesn't matter. You can assume edge without regard for the line.

You don't need to know who's at home, who's been winning or losing, what other injury info is out there, what the weather is going to be, nothing.

You can bet the line, no matter what it was. And if it moves 3 points against you, you know the info is out, again without regard for what the line is.

There are plenty of times when you can assume edge without regard for the line. But believe me I know full well how offensive such thinking is to many players. People do get insulted by my approach sometimes, which is why I don't much like to post picks.

http://www.majorwager.com/forums/mes...rest-year.html

. . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . ,.-‘”. . . . . . . . . .``~.,
. . . . . . . .. . . . . .,.-”. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .“-.,
. . . . .. . . . . . ..,/. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ”:,
. . . . . . . .. .,?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .\,
. . . . . . . . . /. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,}
. . . . . . . . ./. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,:`^`.}
. . . . . . . ./. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,:”. . . ./
. . . . . . .?. . . __. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . :`. . . ./
. . . . . . . /__.(. . .“~-,_. . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,:`. . . .. ./
. . . . . . /(_. . ”~,_. . . ..“~,_. . . . . . . . . .,:`. . . . _/
. . . .. .{.._$;_. . .”=,_. . . .“-,_. . . ,.-~-,}, .~”; /. .. .}
. . .. . .((. . .*~_. . . .”=-._. . .“;,,./`. . /” . . . ./. .. ../
. . . .. . .\`~,. . ..“~.,. . . . . . . . . ..`. . .}. . . . . . ../
. . . . . .(. ..`=-,,. . . .`. . . . . . . . . . . ..(. . . ;_,,-”
. . . . . ../.`~,. . ..`-.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..\. . /\
. . . . . . \`~.*-,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..|,./.....\,__
,,_. . . . . }.>-._\. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .|. . . . . . ..`=~-,
. .. `=~-,_\_. . . `\,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .\
. . . . . . . . . .`=~-,,.\,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .\
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . `:,, . . . . . . . . . . . . . `\. . . . . . ..__
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .`=-,. . . . . . . . . .,%`>--==``
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . _\. . . . . ._,-%. . . ..`


I feel bad for you, Justin clean this up.

[rook]

sometimes is better just to go on a gut feeling, but trust your gut feeling then look at the math

[Dark Horse]

sometimes is better just to go on a gut feeling, but trust your gut feeling then look at the math

Unless your gut has a handle on 'sometimes', a coin flip is just as clean.