Originally Posted by
Grind-It-Out
I think I just created a frickin sweet model, but I'm paranoid that I did something wrong with testing that invalidates the data. If someone could verify that I tested correctly that would be hugely appreciated.
The process:
I created a model, backtested using data from April 1st, 2009 - April 30th, 2010, and then made repeated changes to the model until backtesting on that data set yielded the best result. Then, once I was confident in my model, I "forward tested" from May 1st, 2010 through yesterday.
The results (from May 1st onward):
494 - 292, +285.99 units, Z-Score = 6.05 (All bets were between 1 and 5 units)
Since I didn't backtest with the data I used for "forward testing" does that mean that these results are valid? They almost seem too good to be true, which has me worried.