[lasker]

I believe these kinds of bets are called straddles but correct me if I'm wrong. Anyway, I have what will probably be a simple question for many of you. My math is not very good, although I'm trying to learn, so I'd be grateful if you could help me out. I'll use the actual example that's on my mind in this case:

There is an upcoming UFC fight between Matt Hughes and Ricardo Almeida. I believe that if Hughes wins, it will most likely be by decision, and if Almeida wins it will most likely be inside the distance (and by submission). I was looking at the following two props on 5dimes:

Hughes wins by 3 round decision: +243

Almeida wins inside the distance: +245 (they are not offering an Almeida by submission prop)

Obviously if I play both and one of them hits, I will profit. Assuming I put one unit on each, I stand to profit at least 1.43 units. However, if neither hits, I will lose 2 units. So my question is, what percentage of the time would Hughes by decision or Almeida by stoppage have to hit in order to make it +EV to bet both?

Finally, once I know the EV of betting both, let's say I want to compare it to betting just one. Suppose that I think that if one of those two propositions hits, there is a 55% chance it will be Hughes by decision and a 45% chance it will be Almeida inside the distance. How can I calculate, then, whether only betting Hughes by decision is more profitable than the straddle?

Hope this makes sense. Thanks in advance for any help.

[tomcowley]

Just look at each bet individually. Is Hughes Dec +EV? If so, bet it. Is Almeida stoppage +EV? If so, bet it. The EV of both bets is just the sum of the EV of the individual bets, and betting at the 1u level, there's not much point in making it harder than that.

[lasker]

Thanks for the reply. I believe both are +EV, especially Hughes by decision. The 1u was just to keep it simple... I will be betting more than 1u on this fight, whether as the straddle or on one prop only. Still, I'd like to know how to calculate which is more valuable in the long run.

[Data]

Go to Kelly calculator, http://www.sportsbookreview.com/Betting+Tool...alculator.aspx, and play with the numbers. Important, set the left-hand side top dropdown menu to "#Exclusive Outcomes".

[lasker]

Thank you, that's exactly what I was looking for. I never knew of the Kelly calculator before but that will be very useful.

[Kaabee]

Not 100% on this but this is what I got:
I think you have to win one of them at least 58% of the time. If got this by figuring out the percentages when the EV's of losing both matches and the EV of when your biggest dog wins are equal.

[lasker]

Not 100% on this but this is what I got:
I think you have to win one of them at least 58% of the time. If got this by figuring out the percentages when the EV's of losing both matches and the EV of when your biggest dog wins are equal.

According to the Kelly calculator, you are spot on. If anybody's interested, I just posted a blog on this matchup: http://lasker.mysbrforum.com/blog/24...ughes-150.html