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What is the REAL job of the oddsmaker
Do they try to create a line that is closest to the actual win expectancies or do they just create lines to induce favorable action?
What I really want to know is, if I calculate the no-juice pinny line will I get a line that is the most accurate possible? and if so, how accurate (within 1% or 2-5% of the true win probability)
Is it true that books shade lines against favorites?
Whats REALLY going on?
to offer lines that will reap the most profit
My guess is to manage a line so there is 50% money on each side.
It depends on the intention of the sportsbook. If they are conservative, it is to attract as close to 50/50 action as possible. If they are not afraid to gamble (i.e., Pinny), then there is some risk-management involved.
Real deal handicapping -- Lakers will barely squeak this out on the road back-to-back ----> Lakers -3
Public/square homer 'capping --- Lakers -6 all day, every day
As was stated earlier, it depends on how the operation is playing it as to which one they use.
There are two different jobs.
An oddsmaker sets an initial line. He throws a dart out as close to the right number as he can get.
A linesman looks at the original odds, incoming bets and the market prices on a game. He adjusts his book's price - either to balance the action (usually) or to take a position on a game (rarely).
Most linesmen that take positions will lose. A few can do it, but not most. Cascade took positions, and so did Aces Gold.
Of course they want to get the most profit, but different ways to go about this based upon your client base. Sahrp clients you lean more towards a balanced book, if you are more of a square book then you can try to do more trapping on one side.
It really is not that dangerous to take get everyone on one side as long as it is not something like the Superbowl just because there are so many events throughout the year if you trap guys at a bad bet you will win in the long run
"true probability" is a very loose concept in handicapping. You can have a working probability based on given data. And you might call it true until someone comes up with better data or analysis.
What´s with that 50/50 myth...they just want to stay close to the number where they consider a line to be true odds...
How could they ever get equal action when a public team with a star pitcher plays...the KC Royals with a sucker on the mount?
The 50/50 was for point spreads and other -110/-110 wagers. In your scenario, the conservative books want to get as close to the No Vig line as possible and collect the vig. So in your case, lets say the book determines a no-vig line to be -200. That would make the break-even point 67% on the favorite and 33% on the dog. The book would put up something like -215/+190, and if the real betting varies much from 67%/33%, would adjust accordingly.Originally Posted by Zelda
I think most books wouldn´t mind to get a lot more action then 66% on the -215, if Pinny has the line at let´s say -200...
I would take 90% action on the fav. without moving the line a cent, if they bet into my inflated lines...every time.
Right, but you get the point. And apparently, you would have a Pinny mentality if you were making book.
But nobody has answered the question completely, or is it a question nobody can/wants to answer?
Ex. Take the closing Pinny ML on a baseball game. Is this number the closest to the true probability in the betting world?
I just want to know does a higher limit mean the book has the most confidence in the odds (ie closest to the true probability) or they are the most comfortable taking heavy action on it, knowing they cant lose.
Take MB for instance, since its not a book where do they come up with their lines? do they copy Pinny's?
If so, MB closers must be the closest to true probability, yes? (with enough liquidity of course)
probabilities in the sports wagering world vary with time (lines always changing)
like reno cool stated, "true probability" may never be established, even at the closing line
i think what you are looking for is the sharpest line, and the pinny closer is not that
Rich Boy,
Pinnacle's closing number is very close to the true price. IMO, I think Matchbook's number is closer.
many players from the U.S.A. not being able to play pinny's lines is a factor in the line they put out, making pinny's line less 'true'
Pinny lines are very close to 5D lines for MLB. MB offers a '1/2 ct' close-up within those parameters. This doesn't affect the accuracy of the Pinnacle lines. It just gives a more powerful cross hair.
So who has the sharpest Alternate Runlines. MB doesnt have much liquidity for these lines.
I normally see a 1-2% difference in win probabilities from 5dimes, CRIS, and Pinny.
Which line should I trust the most?
Pinnacle, no doubt about it.
Does LVSS not play strongly in the markets anymore? They once took strong positions in the NFL market, at least. First 5-6 weeks of sides for NFL 2000 comes to mind.
Justin is right on with his posts, I love hearing him dish out the info. The man knows his stuff!
Justin, Matchbook may have sharper numbers than Pinny in markets with enough liquidity, but when it comes to NHL, CFL, Tennis, etc... The lines are not that sharp.
I hear alot of people saying that Pinny no longer has sharp numbers since US players cant play there... Is their any truth to this? I would figure a lot of the sharp players would still manage to play there.
The players that matter (sharp ones that fire big) find a way to play at Pinnacle. I think the Pinny numbers are just as sharp as they have always been... Just MB is tighter.
A big question mark for this fall though - what fee structure will MB use in fall? If they use a similar one to MLB - with the equivalent of a 3 cent spread, they will be the tightest. If they use a larger commission, the spread will be closer to Pinnacle's 8-cent line, and I'd expect the lines to be more comperable (as far as sharpness of closers).
First and foremost, understand no one person makes up the lines. There's just too much information and too many games for a single person to do it successfully.
Usually, lines are figured by a committee basis, with a group of certified professionals who have a particular expertise in a specific sport.
An oddsmaker must take into account every possible thing which may affect the outcome of an event. Some of the more important information looked at is the quality of the teams or participants, injuries, incentive to win, weather and field conditions, where the contest is being played, history of the match-up, what each team has done recently, and what do they have ahead of them, not to mention any special particulars such as how players on a team are getting along, trade rumors, etc.
In a nutshell, handicappers must pay attention to every detail which he feels may influence a final score. He must also determine a number which will be acceptable to both sides of the bet. In other words, will the number attract enough attention on each side. When the majority of bets fall on one side, the original number was probably not a good one. In these cases, a sportsbook will adjust the line up or down in order to try and encourage people to bet the other side.
Now, it is important to know that while the day-to-day information is used to help adjust spreads as a season progresses, the basic numbers are calculated and analyzed prior to the beginning of each season. Odds makers look at the previous season's numbers, off-season moves and transactions, coaching changes, health of players, etc. These factors are mixed together through a series of special formulas and used to determine what is commonly called Power Rankings. As a season progresses, a team's Power Rank number is adjusted based on its performance. This number is used to help determine a spread.
Odds makers will tell you their job is not to predict an event's outcome but, rather divide the public as to who it thinks will win. "When the oddsmakers have set a point spread properly there will be an equal number of people betting each side of the line."
And, that's how the sportsbook makes its money. If things break equally, it can use the losing bets to pay off the winning bets and simply keep the 10% they made off the vig. Of course the sportsbooks would like to see more losers than winners, but that?s why the vig is built in. In order to give them the best chances at coming up with a neutral number, most odds makers will take a consensus, and then evaluate how their clients typically bet before they post a spread. In other words, each member of the committee comes up with his own numbers. Then all the numbers are looked at and the group decides which one will work the best after evaluating all the factors described earlier.
Again, remember, despite all the experts using the myriad of information out there to come up with a spread, opportunities are out there for the careful gambler. Why? Because while the sportsbook is forced to deal with each and every game played every day of the year, you do not have to. Therefore, it is to your advantage to concentrate your efforts on a limited number of games and/or sports.
I hope people don't mind reviving old threads.
I realize that the pointspread is intended to generate proportionate betting on both sides of the line. Rather than predict the actual outcome.
That being said, how the heck does anyone accurately predict how people will behave such that half the MONEY (let alone half the BETTORS, but the money wagered by the BETTORS) will be on each side of the game? You can only adjust the line so much before you open up middling opportunities where books really get screwed, right?
For example, how would you know if bettors like ORL to crush ATL in game 4 (as they did)? How much chalk does ORL have to give up to attract ATL bettors? I use this example, b/c I read elsewhere that 95% of the bettors (not money, which I imagine no house will ever release) were on ORL. Considering that sportsbooks offer pointspreads on virtually every sport, aren't there plenty of opportunities for mistakes? Where people bet 70% of the MONEY (not people) on one side and the house can be bloodied if they lose?
How do bookies counter such risks?
Or do bookies ultimately take positions many times, but because the public is "stupid", the bookies usually win more than 50% of the time?
Its a good question, the books are most likely forced to take sides at times, like when they make a weak line and assume the public likes the wrong side, etc. Ultimately, the juice probably makes up for any ill effect that this might have on their profits. When the book has all the resources and all the advantage it just doesn't matter if they are forced into sides. I mean, they're probably winning the gamble 50-52% of the time anyway.
To not get fired.
Oddsmakers know enough to get the line very close. But books have limits on opening lines for the line to adjust. Early sharp money will tell them what they need to know. And books aren't as interested in getting balanced action as people may think. The +110 advantage (for full juice) can go a long way.
When a broad market narrows, such as March Madness for NCAAB, and the playoffs for the NBA, line movement becomes more significant. If you know what to look for you can pick winning plays right off the board.
I realized that game 4 was a rare occasion that bookies knew they are likely to lose to public but chose not do anything about it. For strong books long term it may not be a bad thing, first they have sharps absorb some losses if not all, second it helps creating an illusion to public that books can be easily beat in similar situations, which often than not, are so called "traps".
30% juice on most sports. they can't lose money.
What is the REAL job of the oddsmaker?
At Bodog: check pinny line, inflate, shade. Rinse, repeat.
And the guy does it just a few hours before the start of the game. Really hard work.
To screw us
Vegas has become irrelevant in setting lines, the best Vegas books all copy offshore openers anyway.
So this all begs a question that has racked me for a while...
If the odds can be manipulated for any number of reasons reasons. And aren't always "as they should be". Why do people continue to do analysis using these odds?
Wouldnt that just be setting yourself up for failure?
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