[Dark Horse]

So this all begs a question that has racked me for a while...

If the odds can be manipulated for any number of reasons reasons. And aren't always "as they should be". Why do people continue to do analysis using these odds?

Wouldnt that just be setting yourself up for failure?

closing lines (or openers and closers, but not just openers).

[jaydes40]

There are two different jobs.

An oddsmaker sets an initial line. He throws a dart out as close to the right number as he can get.

A linesman looks at the original odds, incoming bets and the market prices on a game. He adjusts his book's price - either to balance the action (usually) or to take a position on a game (rarely).

Most linesmen that take positions will lose. A few can do it, but not most. Cascade took positions, and so did Aces Gold.

I couldn't have said it any better myself.

[jaydes40]

Maverick22 ,The sports book represents a marketplace and by using the opening and closing numbers one can gauge out market inefficiencies. The only way that any of us are able to make money in this industry is do to this inefficient market notion, whereby the line/odds/juice/price or whatever you want to call it is not in line with what one will decide is the true odds of some sporting outcome.

[Marginalis]

What is the REAL job of the oddsmaker?

At Bodog: check pinny line, inflate, shade. Rinse, repeat.

And the guy does it just a few hours before the start of the game. Really hard work.

[beanbag]

profit profit profit!!!

[VTranX]

Public perception

[plays]

In reference to casinos LVSC sets the line. The bookmakers job is to create equal action on both sides of any particular matchup so that they are guaranteed to make money. This is how it works a line is set and people start wagering, when one team starts taking more action than the other"getting heavy on one side" the oddsmaker adjusts the line so that the other team starts to get action as well, they want to balance the action perfectly or try to so that the winning side gets paid off with the losing sides money and they keep all the juice. Each casino has their own oddsmaker manager and they set a little bit different of a line depending on many things but mostly type of players they manage.

[thebayareabeast]

To induce an even amount of action on both sides.

[CHUBNUT]

not many here with bookmaking experience by the posts. Austin 7 says very few books take a position and succeed even though they enjoy anything up to a 5% advantage, while he posts that he succeeds betting into anything up to 5% markets. Its so easy to formulate an opening line that it doesnt pay any book to employ someone to do it. What matters to a particular book is how sharp their lines need to be to match their clientel, betting -110 against a bunch of idiots requires little finesse on the part of a bookmaker, in fact most books I know will even give the best price available to their best clients. Once you throw out the myth that bookmakers try to balance their books ( even if they wanted to market forces stop them ) then its obvious there comes a cut off point where playing the percentages means taking a view. the bottom line is it all depends on your clientel, Pinny and 5 dimes have no choice but take chances when compared to a book like ladbrokes who have thousands of bettors willing to take bad odds.

[BrigadierPudding]

Vegas has become irrelevant in setting lines, the best Vegas books all copy offshore openers anyway.

This is mostly true, but there are a few exceptions. Namely the M. They aren't afraid to take a big bet (see Phil Ivey's $1M Colts ML bet in the SB) and are very innovative with their live in game wagering. They are one of the first Vegas books to post a number and don't follow the moves offshore.

[composite]

So, do oddsmakers ever post "sucker" lines? Lines where popular teams get supposedly favorable spreads designed to induce public or "square" action? Or, is that just a fallacy of stupid bettors?