How do you calculate how many cents a number is worth?
Assume you have a push chart, how would you convert these percentages into cents? For example, people have told me that the push rate on the 3 in the NFL is 10% and it is worth 23 cents. How do you come up with that?
I don't believe this has ever been made public on the forums and I'm not sure if it should be. If you'd like to know, buy the book Weighing the odds in Sports Betting by King Yao.
One of the chapters in Wong's book (one that he actually wrote) contains methodology on how to do calculate push percentages and Ganchrow used the same methodology as mentioned in the book. To calculate the push percentage of say the college basketball +5, take all games lined between, say, 2 points of the number, so +3 through +7, and see how often they land on the +5. I forget the exact margin Wong and Ganchrow used but it was roughly 2 points in either direction. The problem with using just games lined at +5 is that the sample is too small, so by extending the range to +3 through +7 you increase the sample.
I think Wong used a radius of 2. That wasn't really what PRC was after, though I'm in agreement with Monkey. It's out there - if you want to know, pick up Yao's book. It's definitely one on the required reading list.
Cents are just a rough estimate people/books use. It's really imprecise. 30c going from +100 to -130 is worth more than 30c going from +400 to +430. Why? Because cents are an easy way of expressing percentages called "American Odds." When working with things such as push percentages, always convert cents into percentages. Then add/subtract the percentage of the push. Finally convert back into American Odds format. Viola. You will see how many cents a particular number is worth. Refer to King Yao's book for more thorough explanation and examples.
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How do you calculate how many cents a number is worth?
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