Question re: MLB Totals Data
Suppose you have an MLB database with a column that has a game's total and then another column right next to it with the payout odds on the over. Now if you wanted to find the "average" total for a certain range, how would you adjust it based on the payout odds?
Obviously, I could just take the average for the raw totals and hope that it "evens out over time" but would prefer not to. Thanks, fellas.
Do you mean what is the SQL to find this? To filter out games where the Over odds were within a certain number range? And then find the average of the filtered results?
No, I know pretty much nothing when it comes to programming so the SQL couldn't be of much help. For instance, say I have two columns with the following in excel:
8.5 (-102)
9 (+105)
9 (-111)
10.5 (+106)
7 (-115)
Now what would be the "average" total for this range?
Assume Pinnacle closing line (10 cent totals generally).
Last edited by IrishTim; 05-06-10 at 11:44 AM. Reason: note re: source of data
Convert them to vig free lines and use push percentages to make them into a decimal. ov9 -111/un 9 +101 is roughly ov9 -106 vig free. The 9 pushes about 10% of the time (varies a little based on whether the home team is favored and by how much they're favored, but 10% is pretty close in general), so the difference between 9 and 9.5 is about 5%. -106 is about 51.5%, so it's reasonably accurate to say ov9 -106 vig free is 9.15.
IrishTim gave skrtelfan 10 SBR Point(s) for this post.
That's what I was looking for, thanks skrtelfan. I'm pissed I couldn't figure it out for myself, but I'll just use the excuse that I'm wiped from exams.
I didn't think the MLs really affected the total (it makes more sense to me the other way around) and I've never used it to make my push charts. For the record, I have a push rate of 10.45% on the "9" in MLB.
