1. 04-26-10 02:12 PM #1
    rfr3sh
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    Is this correct math

    Kurt Thomas averaged 4.16 rebounds per game on the road in the regular season, however he averaged 15.472 minutes per game. In the playoffs he is averaging 27.3 minutes per game so that means for every minute he is on the court it is worth 0.2692606 rebounds. therefore in 27.3 minutes it is expected that he grabs 7.351 rebounds?
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  2. 04-26-10 02:26 PM #2
    Justin7
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    You made two assumptions:
    1. He will continue to have more minutes in the playoffs, and
    2. His rebounds per minute will not change when he gets more playing time.

    If these are correct, I think your procedure is correct.

    One minor caution - as a player's total minutes go up, his typical stat/minute goes down. There are a few sections in Basketball on Paper by Oliver on this.

    If you are pricing a prop, and it looks like they are using the season average, the over is probably the right side.
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  3. 04-26-10 02:27 PM #3
    rfr3sh
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    You made two assumptions: 1. He will continue to have more minutes in the playoffs, and 2. His rebounds per minute will not change when he gets more playing time. If these are correct, I think your procedure is correct. One minor caution - as a player's total minutes go up, his typical stat/minute goes down. There are a few sections in Basketball on Paper by Oliver on this. If you are pricing a prop, and it looks like they are using the season average, the over is probably the right side.
    I'm pretty sure they are using his playoff average since his playoff average is around 10 where as his season average was like 4
    and the O/U is 8.5

    under 8½ -105
    over 8½ -115
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  4. 04-26-10 08:48 PM #4
    rfr3sh
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    damm this guy has 6 boards at halftime
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  5. 04-27-10 06:40 AM #5
    runnershane14
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    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diminishing_returns
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  6. 04-27-10 08:28 AM #6
    suicidekings
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    Quote Originally Posted by rfr3sh View Post
    damm this guy has 6 boards at halftime
    When pricing a rebounds prop, you really need to consider the opposing team as numbers will vary greatly from team to team. ie: rebounding against the Cavs/Magic is tough, whereas the Warriors and Pacers pretty much just let you have the ball.

    You should post these props in the NBA forum for feedback.
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  7. 04-27-10 08:41 AM #7
    gman2114
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    Interesting but why?
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  8. 04-27-10 09:30 AM #8
    rfr3sh
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    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    When pricing a rebounds prop, you really need to consider the opposing team as numbers will vary greatly from team to team. ie: rebounding against the Cavs/Magic is tough, whereas the Warriors and Pacers pretty much just let you have the ball. You should post these props in the NBA forum for feedback.
    well he only finished with 9 so it wasnt too far off the total of 8.5 , i feel like my math was correct but he was over performing, also his season stats might be a little off sicne he is only playing more because of boguts injury

    Also the league average and median for RPG and ORPG are pretty close, I'm not sure you need the factor them in too much
    Last edited by rfr3sh; 04-27-10 at 10:18 AM.
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  9. 04-29-10 12:08 AM #9
    GELATINOUS CUBE
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    no.
    reg.season.boards.are.ON>THE>ROAD!!!!

    but.you.could.still.estimate.

    doesn't.matter.though
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  10. 04-29-10 01:28 AM #10
    donjuan
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    Quote Originally Posted by GELATINOUS CUBE View Post
    no.
    reg.season.boards.are.ON>THE>ROAD!!!!

    but.you.could.still.estimate.

    doesn't.matter.though
    Math not meth.
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  11. 04-29-10 01:46 AM #11
    Dark Horse
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    Quote Originally Posted by rfr3sh View Post
    well he only finished with 9 so it wasnt too far off the total of 8.5 , i feel like my math was correct but he was over performing, also his season stats might be a little off sicne he is only playing more because of boguts injury
    He wasn't overperforming. He was grabbing rebounds that Bogut would have grabbed.

    The rebounding dynamic within the team has changed...
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  12. 04-29-10 02:56 AM #12
    rfr3sh
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Horse View Post
    He wasn't overperforming. He was grabbing rebounds that Bogut would have grabbed. The rebounding dynamic within the team has changed...
    well i wasnt saying he was over performing, just that his season average was only 4 because of limited PT. However, according to what Justin said, NBA playoff props would be hard to price since the players (PPG,RBG,APG) are generally higher in the playoff, so the math I used was irrelevant
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  13. 04-29-10 06:07 AM #13
    Dark Horse
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    You went to math before considering the situation. Thomas is a tall guy. He'll grab rebounds. Bogut is a tall guy. He'll grab rebounds. What happens to the rebound total of one if the other is out?
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  14. 04-29-10 06:48 AM #14
    Slainte
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    How do you calculate this? 4,16:15,472? Then- (4,16:15,472)*27,3? Cause if so i think your numbers are wrong.
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  15. 04-29-10 05:48 PM #15
    rfr3sh
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    ...
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  16. 04-29-10 05:52 PM #16
    rfr3sh
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slainte View Post
    How do you calculate this? 4,16:15,472? Then- (4,16:15,472)*27,3? Cause if so i think your numbers are wrong.


    4.16/15.472 = 0.268 RPM

    0.268 * 27.3 = 7.34
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  17. 04-29-10 06:13 PM #17
    adlai
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    how many economists are in this thread? i heard some familiar terms in here.
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  18. 04-29-10 06:24 PM #18
    Maverick22
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    I would have determined the games where his number of rebounds is far "enough" from the average.

    And did some research into what happened those games. (ie... was any of the two teams team losing by enough to putting up prayer three's all game?, was a team winning and playing conservative with lay-ups, so he didn't get as many rebounds? Did he get benched b/c of foul trouble? Was he in enough foul trouble, that he couldn't play "his game"?)

    (To me) There is no justice in looking at his numbers alone, and make decisions from those (experience speaking)...

    its a team game... and a game where his actions are products of others actions...and their actions are products of other's actions...

    Just my two cents anyways....

    And before i get off my soap box... I tried this with the Texas/Alabama game. Where i looked at how many passes McElroy would throw per game...

    Not taking into consideration, how Saban's game plan and how we would utilize his quaterback... I anticipated Texas firing off points, and McElroy having to throw his way to a W. And even with Colt McKoy's "injury"(LOL, LongHorn Fans know what i mean) aside, my bet still wouldn't have panned out. Saban wasn't letting McElroy throw too many passes ( that or McElroy decided not to throw any ).

    Just remember the bigger picture... That's all.
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  19. 04-30-10 01:19 AM #19
    Slainte
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    Quote Originally Posted by rfr3sh View Post


    4.16/15.472 = 0.268 RPM

    0.268 * 27.3 = 7.34
    4,16/15,472 = 0,268872802 ~ 0,269

    The rest is correct so actually it doesn't make difference for the end results
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  20. 04-30-10 02:07 AM #20
    rfr3sh
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    i obviously didnt care to type all of those decimal places here
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