I'm keeping a record for a rather big MLB project, going forward. I have no interest in making the record look better than it is. I want it unbiased.
Yesterday a fluke happened. I had identified a strong play, largely based on starting pitching. The pitcher got hit by a ball in the second inning and had to leave the game. The team went on to lose, and I recorded it as a loss. Am I correct to include this, because flukes happen, and I couldn't specify upfront what a fluke is anyway (and determining it afterwards would be more dangerous to an objective record than a true fluke), or does including this result throw the record off, if only ever so slightly?
The game was scoreless when the pitcher left, and he had recorded just 4 outs. I'm counting it because the book counted it. End of story. But is that the correct approach, statistically speaking? Technically, the pitcher played the game, but realistically he had no impact on it. If the pitcher got hit by lightning after recording 1 out, would I count that too? Where does act-of-God territory start?
I'm including the result. Wrong or right? The alternative would be to record the game as if the replacement pitcher had started (which, for this method, would have greater objective value going forward than including this fluke). A third possibility would be to not record it at all. Which is most objective?