1. 03-28-10 03:16 PM #1
    Jaug
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    MLB h2h reg season wins question

    OK so I was thinking about a h2h most regular season wins prop. The side i'm interested in is Tampa bay > LA angels. TB seems to have a OU on reg season wins of about 89.5, while LA angels has it around 84. So what price can I lay with tampa to get more reg season wins than LAA? (draw is push).

    I was thinking around -150 theoretically?
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  2. 03-30-10 02:40 AM #2
    byronbb
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    Well I plunked it into Poisson Calculator with 2 variables and got:
    Odds of Percentage Money Line
    A = B 2.7785% +3,499.03
    A > B 64.7880% -183.99
    A < B 32.4335% +208.32
    A ≥ B 67.5665% -208.32
    A ≤ B 35.2120% +183.99
    Seems close. No idea if this is applicable however.
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  3. 03-30-10 09:10 AM #3
    Jaug
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    Quote Originally Posted by byronbb View Post
    Well I plunked it into Poisson Calculator with 2 variables and got:
    Odds of Percentage Money Line
    A = B 2.7785% +3,499.03
    A > B 64.7880% -183.99
    A < B 32.4335% +208.32
    A ≥ B 67.5665% -208.32
    A ≤ B 35.2120% +183.99
    Seems close. No idea if this is applicable however.
    What standard deviation did you use? I was thinking Gaussian distribution with a SD of 5 games. That would mean that 84% of seasons played the teams were held within 10 games of their OU lines. Seems reasonable?
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  4. 03-30-10 09:17 AM #4
    Jaug
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    That gets me this value:

    P(TB under 84 wins) = 13.5%

    I guess you might even be able to lay -180 or -200 on TB > LAA reg season wins?
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  5. 04-04-10 06:29 PM #5
    jessetopolski
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    prob
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  6. 04-07-10 05:19 AM #6
    MonkeyF0cker
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaug View Post
    I was thinking Gaussian distribution with a SD of 5 games. Seems reasonable?
    No. It seems completely arbitrary and it is.
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  7. 04-07-10 05:21 AM #7
    MonkeyF0cker
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    ...
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