[usma1992]

Background: Computer Science school teacher... previous life... Army Officer... Simulation expert and presenter. Degree is in Electrical Engineering with Computer Engineering Track.

Step 1: Collect data. Has to remain pure. I have had people ask me to exchange data and I quickly asked is it pure or did up manipulate it. Data is only valuable in its infancy state. And it has to be current. You can manipulate it at your hearts content after the fact. Pure data believe it or not is a commodity.
Step 2: Use mathematics to include standard deviations ... z scores and try to determine the variables that at least determine a reasonable score outcome. There are so many variables that impact the score that it is unreasonable to think you will predict the exact outcome but you may be able to get close.
Step 3: Develop an algorithm to test against past data. This presents a problem because many don't actually have past data that is pure to test against. I do. If you have virgin past data and can develop an algorithm that worked in the past... try it moving forward.
Step 4: Did you algorithm actually work? Was it close to the predictions or way off? Do you need to make adjustments or is it right but unlucky or is it completely worthless?

I have spent well over ten years.... just getting to the put that I collect data correcting and do the math correctly. I am now creating algorithms that worked in the past and seeing if they can predict the future.

As a modeler you are always going to tweak as new data comes in.

College Football Results:
Keep in mind these results are just based on the week they occurred if the same algorithms didn't work the previous 3 years they are worthless.

Week 10 10-8
Week 11 11-5
Week 12 4-6
Week 13 9-5

You have any questions... send me a message. I'll try to accommodate as much as I can .

My NFL program has done really well until last week went 1-6. NBA is doing well but last night 4-5. I have losses but everything trending well.

Dave

P.S. The irony... is I have been told it can't be done. I actually think I might have already done it for college football... I am onto NFL... but more NBA and NCAAB,

[Optional]

Good luck.

I agree that integrity of your data is vital.

But I don't think using historical stats only will produce definitive results. Both teams and bookmakers adjust based on that history too, making it out of date immediately really.

I'd be looking to incorporate a cross check of your output against something current.



If you like stats and coding I have had a simple idea you may like to try. As I am never going to get around to it by the looks.

Get accurate birthtime and place data for all players and calculate biorthyms.

I'd then use it to calc head to head player positions. DEF v OFF and a few other things. You get the idea.

Back test that to see if it aligns with your stats model and/or historical results.


Basically looking for an up to the moment data source to filter your normal model against.

[usma1992]

Sounds like a great idea. LOL... my guess u can't spell model.

[VeggieDog]

"Get accurate birthtime and place data for all players and calculate biorhythms."

That would be better for one-on-one contests. Tennis or MMA. Maybe even golf.

[usma1992]

Lol... I appreciate the input... I will try to integrate next year. Until then... I'll stay my course.

[Optional]

Sounds like a great idea. LOL... my guess u can't spell model.

That went over my head.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

That went over my head.

Sounds like he thinks you are a bogan

[VeggieDog]

Sounds like he thinks you are a bogan

I had to look that up. Gotta try to work it into my vocabulary. Or at least my SBR posts.

[A Quant]

Opti can't spell model.

I told you Opti he was a nutter.

Now you're finding out.

[Optional]

Opti can't spell model.

I told you Opti he was a nutter.

Now you're finding out.

I think I have realized he was just being dismissive as he didn't want feedback. Tough for him to deal with time wasters like me when he already knows it all.

[usma1992]

First of all, I think you need to have a little crazy in you... if you think that you can beat Vegas on a refurbished laptop using simple math statistics and excel spreadsheet. Optimal... I really thought you were joking regarding biorythms. Who has the ability or time to do that... and would it have any bearing.

Right now, I am running four systems NFL, NCAAF, NBA, and NCAAB simultaneously, working a job and a half, editing my son's college papers, and trying to fine tune my results. NCAAB picks start tonight and I hope to have a decent algorithm for over/unders and spreads by XMAS.

However, College Football is crushing it. 38-25 the last five weeks. Championship weekend it went 4-1 and only lost the Bama game. More impressive... my system projected Michigan 25-0. It came in 26-0, 1 point from perfection. Keep in mind... my algorithms have to work the past two seasons and predict the future and they have the last 5 weeks. I have sent my picks out to the bigger hitters in my area, they are starting to believe and they are ready to spot me next year. We will be betting 500-2K per game as we currently plan. Trying to keep solid bankroll management with only 2.5% or less bet on each game.

I by no means have it all figured out. In fact, this is the first time in 10 years it is working. But as TJ said... The harder I work the luckier I get. I honestly believe that I have a 95% working model for college football. I know ... it can't be done.

Dave
P.S. Time to edit another college paper... why does he always wait until last minute.

[Optional]

First of all, I think you need to have a little crazy in you... if you think that you can beat Vegas on a refurbished laptop using simple math statistics and excel spreadsheet. Optimal... I really thought you were joking regarding biorythms. Who has the ability or time to do that... and would it have any bearing.

Collecting the accurate data might take a little time. But coding to calculate the biorhythms and then how to apply those is actually kind of trivial.

And no, I don't know how well it would work. I don't even have an opinion on whether biorhythms have much scientific validity.

But if I was a modeler, I think the missing link when analyzing stats is ANYTHING that is current up to the minute to filter against.

And biorhythms is one thing that we can calc accurately with code, and is up to the second fresh data.


I am not saying it will give you the answers to cap with, but I genuinely think it might provide a filter to refine your stale data modelling.

Maybe someone can think of another metric like that if we don't like biorhythms.


Just food for thought someone here might find interesting.

[usma1992]

Appreciate your input...

Since I got a working model with college football or at least I believe I do ... I'm going to keep my approach.

Produce expected scores for each team... and competition. Collect data on when my system wins and loses. Identify when my system is strong and create algorithm to leverage those opportunities. That's what I did on NCAAF and it worked. I had a poster that used to break down where my picks were strong and weak, which helped.

Not the case anymore, I just get critics. Regardless, I had Alabama score 89-66 it came in 89-65 or vice versa. If I can get that close... I can adjust the algorithms to find the winning bets.

NBA ... I think I can do ... NCAAB I know I can do... NFL... so few games. I may start posting NCAAB... when I get a comfortable sample size and algorithm.

Just pumped... I got won hitting well.

Dave

[Optional]

I wasn't meaning to sound like a critic. Was mostly just trying to help encourage discussion.

Looking forward to seeing your good results going forward

[usma1992]

6:00 PM	C CONN ST	70	BOSTON COLLEGE	80		150	-15	142.5		Too Close	Over
6:00 PM	LEMOYNE	71	ARMY	70		141	-3.5	135.0		Too Close	Too Close
6:30 PM	QUEENS U - CHAR	70	WINTHROP	77		147	-6.5	156.5		Too Close	Under
7:00 PM	NAVY	65	GEORGE WASHINGTON	78		143	-11.5	145.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	UNC-ASHEVILLE	77	KENNESAW ST	82		159	-2.5	166.0		Too Close	Under
7:00 PM	MISS VALLEY ST	46	LIBERTY	93		139	-32	131.0		Too Close	Over
7:00 PM	LAFAYETTE	61	COLUMBIA	76		138	-8	135.5		Home Minus	Too Close
7:00 PM	W CAROLINA	77	HIGH POINT	79		155	-1.5	154.0		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	STETSON	67	CHARLOTTE	66		134	-9	132.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	NC CENTRAL	53	VIRGINIA	74		127	-22.5	123.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	MERRIMACK	64	FLORIDA	84		148	-21	147.5		Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	ARK-PINE BLUFF	62	GONZAGA	97		159	-34	166.0		Too Close	Under
6:30 PM	FLA ATLANTIC	70	ILLINOIS	75		145	2	147.5		Home Plus	Too Close
6:30 PM	DELAWARE	67	XAVIER	75		142	-11.5	149.0		Too Close	Under
6:30 PM	GEORGE MASON	63	TENNESSEE	77		140	-16	135.0		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	BRADLEY	73	AKRON	72		145	-1.5	138.0		Too Close	Over
7:00 PM	PROVIDENCE	66	OKLAHOMA	76		142	-5	144.5		Home Minus	Too Close

[usma1992]

7:00 PM	WISCONSIN	60	MICHIGAN ST	71		131	-5.5	131.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	VILLANOVA	74	KANSAS ST	75		149	2.5	142.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	W MICHIGAN	63	NOTRE DAME	69		132	-11	129.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	DREXEL	62	PRINCETON	68		130	-8	128.0		Too Close	Too Close
7:30 PM	MISSOURI ST	69	MIDDLE TENN ST	64		133	1	132.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:30 PM	GEORGIA TECH	69	GEORGIA	71		140	-5.5	147.0		Too Close	Under
7:30 PM	LOUISIANA TECH	71	SF AUSTIN ST	71		142	-4	139.5		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	INDIANA ST	86	N ILLINOIS	76		162	7.5	166.5		Too Close	Under
8:00 PM	MOUNT ST MARYS	63	OLE MISS	78		141	-15	134.5		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	MISSOURI-KC	59	KANSAS	81		141	-26	141.0		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	CORNELL	78	SYRACUSE	81		159	-5.5	166.5		Too Close	Under
8:00 PM	WEBER ST	65	UTAH VALLEY ST	61		126	2.5	127.5		Too Close	Too Close
8:30 PM	LOYOLA-IL	68	TULSA	71		139	1	141.5		Home Plus	Too Close
8:30 PM	BUFFALO	59	BUTLER	92		151	-23	149.0		Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	N TEXAS	66	BOISE ST	62		128	-5	125.5		Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	OKLAHOMA ST	69	S ILLINOIS	73		142	1	132.0		Home Plus	Over
9:00 PM	N CAROLINA	69	CONNECTICUT	78		147	-5.5	152.5		Too Close	Under
9:00 PM	SOUTHERN UTAH	159	UTAH	1		159	231	153.5		Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	INDIANA	69	MICHIGAN	79		148	-7	146.0		Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	PACIFIC	66	IDAHO	73		139	-2.5	143.0		Too Close	Under

[usma1992]

9:00 PM	SETON HALL	67	BAYLOR	84		152	-11	150.5		Home Minus	Too Close
9:00 PM	SAN DIEGO ST	73	GRAND CANYON	68		141	2.5	142.0		Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	EVANSVILLE	61	BYU	93		154	-24.5	150.5		Too Close	Too Close
9:15 PM	KENT ST	75	S DAKOTA ST	77		151	-1.5	145.0		Too Close	Too Close
10:00 PM	IDAHO ST	73	FRESNO ST	70		142	-9.5	130.0		Too Close	Over
10:00 PM	CLEVELAND ST	61	ST MARYS-CA	75		135	-15	134.0		Too Close	Too Close
11:00 PM	MONTANA ST	66	WASHINGTON	81		147	-18.5	144.5		Too Close	Too Close

[usma1992]

These were last nights games. Only 2 days in with existing data and algorithms.

But 2-0 first night... and over 60% second night on 20+ games.

Tonight, I have 30 games that I am tracking. It is a lot but it is working so far and will fine tune it by last December. NBA still collecting data and plan to have that finalized for Version 3.0 by Xmas also.

I provide projected numbers to every team and final score.

Enjoy
Dave

Dave

[comet52]

Collecting the accurate data might take a little time. But coding to calculate the biorhythms and then how to apply those is actually kind of trivial.

And no, I don't know how well it would work. I don't even have an opinion on whether biorhythms have much scientific validity.

But if I was a modeler, I think the missing link when analyzing stats is ANYTHING that is current up to the minute to filter against.

And biorhythms is one thing that we can calc accurately with code, and is up to the second fresh data.


I am not saying it will give you the answers to cap with, but I genuinely think it might provide a filter to refine your stale data modelling.

Maybe someone can think of another metric like that if we don't like biorhythms.


Just food for thought someone here might find interesting.

Interesting take Opti. As an astrologer myself I can tell you that obtaining accurate birthtimes and data for people you don't know isn't very easy. But I can also say, if you can find an edge that others don't have in any sport, you can profit. If biorythms work and you can compile meaningful data on them then that could be such an edge.

The current betting markets are flooded with stats modelers and the more they find the same edges/angles, the more the market grinds those initial winners into long term losers due to the volumes they end up getting played at. If one guy had an actual working edge based on something esoteric that no one else has, he'd have a potential goldmine.