Originally Posted by
str
I'm not a psychologist but have analyzed myself in hindsight enough to know a couple things that might fit you as well as me.
You should not try to compare, IMO, what you bet as a kid to what you do today. With all the knowledge you have gathered since then, why would you want to be mentally restricted as an older man that has experienced 1000 times more than you had at the younger age when you (and I), bet much more than we could most likely afford. You, like me, have probably forgot more at this point than you used to know .
That said, why bet a large amount if you don't need to financially. Allow yourself some relaxed entertainment. When I was a kid, I bet my whole friggin paycheck on a horse more than once as a hotwalker. Peanut butter on white and chips and a Mountain Dew all week got old quickly.
You do not need to make any money betting but if you are like me, you want to do one thing more than anything. Beat the game!
It can be horses, football, whatever. For me , the satisfaction isn't an extra couple of hundred or thousand in my pocket. It's knowing you beat the system. The game as a whole.
Could I spend a ton of time and beat the horses. Yes. But at what cost? I'd put a lot more time into the game but maybe see less of my grandkids, my wife, my kids, etc. etc. Been there , done that, as I will explain in a minute.
Again speaking for myself, I LIVE to beat the NFL. I've beaten the horses and I kind of look at it like, as much as I know what to look for and with all the experience I have had in the game, If I don't beat it, I must be a damn fool. But that is unique to me and took decades of 12-14 hour days and plenty of 7 days a week. Half a lifetime. And that had a cost.
At the time, I sacrificed time from my girlfriend and my friends from school days. Lost touch for a while with them. Never reconnected with some, now know a fair amount well, and a few, VERY well. Married my old girlfriend and we are at 44 years and counting. As I said before, as a trainer, she was my best claim I ever made. I got lucky.
As for the NFL, I love the challenge. I play tournaments and a weekly pool or two but the most joy comes from waiting, lurking, and seriously betting 6 or 8 or however many present themselves each year while NEVER forcing a play. I don't need to. You don't either. When the end of the season comes, and I have won on those serious plays, money can't buy the feeling I get. Mainly because I know how hard betting and beating the NFL is.
Maybe I learned to not worry about betting all the time from watching thousands of races live and having no bet in the race. My money was actually out on the track running, so no time or desire to bet tickets. Whatever the case, it has me in a very comfortable spot these days.
And you go 5 for 5 on a big Saturday card. Heck with the couple hundred you might have bet on Fierceness, look at what you saw, learned, and are smarter moving forward with. Knowledge. Something as we get older was might find ourselves taking for granted. But we paid a long and dear price for that Madison. So now it is time to reap the reward that comes from paying that price.
Maybe approach the game like making small consistent plays, whatever you decide, but allow yourself a chance for a subset of plays that you feel make perfect sense. Those would be at a higher amount. Maybe a play in the winter, a play or two, or none, in the spring, same with the summer and fall. Keep the garden variety plays in one column and the big select plays in another. Adjust accordingly once you have some data.
As for what to play, my only advise would be that understanding how what happened last Saturday with Fierceness should, in my mind, be much more important than cashing a ticket of any real size on a horse that pays 4.20. No knock on you, that's just my view.
With that, I have pretty much thought since last Saturday, that if he makes the lead and a clean right eye and can keep the first 1/2 mile at 47 and change or better, he pretty much can't lose the Derby. So I won't be solely looking to see if he can win or not, I will be looking to see if he can be compromised or not, thus making a differing style of runner worth a play. I would not consider betting him at what will probably be about even money. But if I feel he can't lose if he breaks kind of thing, I will then handicap trying to find a horse or horses that might run 2nd, 3rd, or whatever, depending on how the race takes shape. Then check the value of those plays, and bet accordingly, or just watch for the future.
I hope this stuff makes sense Madison. I don't know if it will help you or not. Sure hope at least some of it does.
GL and all the best to you sir.