[jamesrav]

A horse is racing on Turf 1st time at 12f, 8 horses running.

You have history showing 300 cases whereby horses running Turf 1st time at 12f, 8 horses ran, at SP payout between 3.7 and 5.0 returned $310. Would you bet the above horse (regardless of recent results) on Betfair if it fell between 4 and 5.5 ? Why or why not?

[semibluff]

The case history isn't related to 'this horse on this course against these opponents on this day'. It's completely irrelevant. I bet the horse only if I look at 'this horse on this course against these opponents on this day' and determine that the odds offered exceed my capping of the horse's actual chances of winning.

[thezbar]

No. Breeding, race shape, post position, current form, trainer, and jockey all have to be considered into the equation. Using your stated control model isn't reliable long term imo. I read somewhere betting the fifth betting choice is the best way to go if you have no opinion in a race. So the payoff range of 4.0 / 5.5 is that ballpark. There may be a edge within Betfair's betting exchange using that framework. Yet there are so many variables in a horse race to consider I wouldn't risk my $$ based only on that control model.

[jamesrav]

The case history isn't related to 'this horse on this course against these opponents on this day'. It's completely irrelevant. I bet the horse only if I look at 'this horse on this course against these opponents on this day' and determine that the odds offered exceed my capping of the horse's actual chances of winning.

"... odds offered exceed my capping ". So you are convinced in some cases (certainly not all or you'd be on a private island somewhere) you can beat the Wisdom of the Crowd? (I have to assume everyone reading this particular forum is familiar with the term. Nothing exemplifies that concept more than horse racing, it literally is the archetype). After a race is run, all the prior 'back story' stuff becomes instantly irrelevant and it's just numbers. So in my example, with Betfair trading at race time generally about 10% higher than SP (never below, sometimes 15% higher in the range specified), over the years (and this represents years of history) you'd have returned about $340 on $300 bet (or $34000 on $30000 at $100 bet size). No handicapping needed, the crowd did it for you. The hitch of course is you'd need to watch the screen like a hawk for this and other similar cases. A bot can do this with no problem.

in case people are not familiar, here's the well-known example of Wisdom of the Crowd

It was in 1906 that Galton made his discovery of what is known as the wisdom of crowds. He attended a farmers' fair in Plymouth where he was intrigued by a weight guessing contest. The goal was to guess the weight of an ox when it was butchered and dressed. Around 800 people entered the contest and wrote their guesses on tickets. The person who guessed closest to the butchered weight of the ox won a prize.
After the contest Galton took the tickets and ran a statistical analysis on them. He discovered that the average guess of all the entrants was remarkably close to the actual weight of the butchered ox. In fact it was under by only 1lb for an ox that weighed 1,198 lbs. This collective guess was not only better than the actual winner of the contest but also better than the guesses made by cattle experts at the fair. It seemed that democracy of thought could produce amazing results.

[floridagolfer]

As others have previously noted, the results of other horses is completely irrelevant. 95 percent of the time, the answer is in the Form; all you have to do is find it.