1. #1
    Believe_EMT
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    Things i think about during games

    i wonder what the average points scored in the 2nd half of an NCCAF or NFL game is when the game time temp exceeds 84 degrees. and then i further wonder if there is a correlation between higher temps and points scored.

    the other one i used to think about a lot, and made a profit one, was the i wonder how many MLB games go Under the total when the game time temp is less than 50 degrees

  2. #2
    Waterstpub87
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    Quote Originally Posted by Believe_EMT View Post
    i wonder what the average points scored in the 2nd half of an NCCAF or NFL game is when the game time temp exceeds 84 degrees. and then i further wonder if there is a correlation between higher temps and points scored.

    the other one i used to think about a lot, and made a profit one, was the i wonder how many MLB games go Under the total when the game time temp is less than 50 degrees
    If you look for the info, you can find it on baseball, I dont have it handy or I would post it.
    Basically, there was someone who looked into how temperatures effect home runs rates. Colder temperatures lead to much lower, it was a linear effect, like for every degree under average temperatures is -.4% chance of a home run, so average is 80, 50 degrees means 80% home runs should be high vs normal.

  3. #3
    Believe_EMT
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    thanks for the info Water

    another thing i think about, as i did watching my beloved Pens battle the Ducks last night

    i wonder what the average number of combined 2nd period goals are when the 1st period is scoreless but had at least 17 shots

    i took over 1.5 -132 for the 2nd period. 2 goals total.

    game ended, i switched to the Pats V Giants game. was surprised to see it suddenly 14-14, got me to thinking

    i wonder how often an NFL's team YPPT is consistent between the 1st Half and 2nd Half

    NYG 1st H YPPT was in the neighborhood of 10, Pats was fairly low too.

    took under 2nd half Total and under 2nd half NYG TT

    those worked out and are in no way indicative of any long term forecast.

    yet, does it speak to the potential inefficiency of Live Markets?

  4. #4
    Believe_EMT
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    Quote Originally Posted by Believe_EMT View Post
    i wonder what the average number of combined 2nd period goals are when the 1st period is scoreless but had at least 17 shots
    happened 8 times so far this season. 1st period shot total (goals scored in 2nd)

    17 (1)
    18 (1)
    18 (2)
    18 (4)
    20 (3)
    22 (4)
    22 (6)
    24 (4)

    so you'd be 6-2 on Over 1.5 2nd period goals. of course some of those may have been as high as -195? B/E price at 75% winners though is well over 200.

  5. #5
    milwaukee mike
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    good stuff

    one angle i like to play is over on totals in ncaaf live when it has a good chance of going to ot, seems like that is rarely factored in
    175 pts

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  6. #6
    Believe_EMT
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    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    good stuff

    one angle i like to play is over on totals in ncaaf live when it has a good chance of going to ot, seems like that is rarely factored in
    hmmmm

    interesting thought and i don't think i've had that one or heard it expressed before.

    don't give away the entire strategy if it is something that provides you profits, but can you share any of the factors you look for?

    i imagine if i were doing it i would look to wager:
    late 3rd quarter
    game within 1.5 scores (meaning 3, 4, 7, 10, 11)
    closing game line of 6 or less

    somewhat off topic, i got burned on 3 unders in the NFL on last minute, trash touchdowns, 2 in one week. don't even recall the final scores, would have to go back and look.

    i wonder how often an nfl games goes over the 4th quarter total in a blowout. gotta be rare, 50% at best. i just now i got fukked it on 3 times this year...screwing up my perception

  7. #7
    Believe_EMT
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    watched maybe 6 pitches this post season, but i thought whilst sitting on hou +280 to win the Series, series pricing is flawed from a logical standpoint. if we view it strictly from an expected outcome stance.

    hou favored to win series in 220 range. cole nearly at 200 in game one.

    expected outcome? 'stros win.

    series price reaction to an expected outcome? sharp increase on the price of the hou. climb near 300?

    no need to get into the math piece saying the series price has to account for the ~35% prob of a game 1 wsh win. that is understood.

    point is price is X
    fave is expected to win game 1 (as implied by the term 'favorite')
    fave wins game 1
    series price rises

    36.3% game 1 losers win the series.

    i remember watching cole play in the minor leagues for a team called the pittsburgh pirates, crazy how long it took him to reach the Majors

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    Believe_EMT
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    NHL

    strictly in games with faves over, say, 150.

    i wonder what the impact is on the Total when:

    A.) dog scores 1st

    2.) fave scores 1st

    intuitively, makes me think scenario A results in a higher rate of Overs.

    open to discussion

  9. #9
    gojetsgomoxies
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    https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


    note that the temperature categories are cumulative so you'd have to do some math to figure out "between 80 and 85 degrees"

    i like DAY vs. NIGHT and left hand starter vs. right hand starter type stuff.

  10. #10
    HeeeHAWWWW
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    Weather data is widely available, so this will be priced in long ago.

  11. #11
    gojetsgomoxies
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    did a bunch of work on killersports.com.. unfort, much of it was done when the forums were frozen last night (due to State of Union speech)

    NFL

    season > 2012 and line > 4 and ...
    games ATS
    W - L- P (marg, %win)
    Avg Line OU
    W - L- P (marg, %over)
    Avg Total SU
    W - L- P (marg, %win)
    SDQL
    33 12-21-0 (-2.59, 36.4%) 8.3 16-15-2 (2.62, 51.6%) 46.0 5-28-0 (-10.88, 15.2%) temperature < 40
    79 30-47-2 (-2.48, 39.0%) 8.3 28-49-2 (-2.03, 36.4%) 45.2 11-68-0 (-10.81, 13.9%) temperature < 50
    122 50-69-3 (-2.11, 42.0%) 8.2 50-69-3 (-1.09, 42.0%) 45.8 18-104-0 (-10.36, 14.8%) temperature < 60
    178 75-99-4 (-1.72, 43.1%) 8.2 74-98-6 (-0.58, 43.0%) 46.1 32-146-0 (-9.88, 18.0%) temperature < 70
    218 98-114-6 (-1.14, 46.2%) 8.1 94-116-8 (-0.28, 44.8%) 46.3 41-177-0 (-9.21, 18.8%) temperature < 80
    249 116-127-6 (-0.96, 47.7%) 8.1 108-132-9 (0.06, 45.0%) 46.2 51-198-0 (-9.02, 20.5%) temperature < 90
    Showing 1 to 6 of 6 entries


    https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

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